UFC 244 Masvidal vs Diaz

How does he have more ways to win? Neither guy will gas, he won't submit Masvidal, his BJJ isn't as great as people think as he's physically and at a big wrestling disadvantage. He can't KO Masvidal either so he has to win a close dec striking on volume where he has far less tools to use.

Every time Diaz faced a top level well rounded fighter like Benson, Rory, RDA etc. he got demolished. Masvidal gets into a lot of close decs with top guys but he'd have to try really hard here to do that when aside from pure BJJ he should be better everywhere.
You’re talking about Nate Diaz fights from years ago.
You were fading him against Pettis and Diaz came in off a multi year layoff and beat the breaks off him, showing improved wrestling and fight iq. Fight easily could’ve been stopped for a guy who can’t ko anyone
 
You’re talking about Nate Diaz fights from years ago.
You were fading him against Pettis and Diaz came in off a multi year layoff and beat the breaks off him, showing improved wrestling and fight iq. Fight easily could’ve been stopped for a guy who can’t ko anyone

Diaz wouldn't have come close to KOing prime Pettis, Pettis just started quitting after about 3 minutes when he hurt his foot.
Diaz wrestling wasn't better, he hit a simple single leg that Pettis did nothing to defend and basically gave to him with a kick. Diaz did the same thing 3 years ago to Conor. Masvidal is still levels above him wrestling, you can even watch a grappling match between Pettis and Masvidal from June for a comparison. Pettis fighting terribly still had success against Nate reversing repeatedly to get on top while gassed but he achieved nothing vs Masvidal.

As for Fight IQ Diaz wasn't particularly smart, he checked a few leg kicks for once but still tried playing guard a bit and most of his pressure game was just plodding into the clinch. It wasn't like we saw some revolutionarily better fighter in Diaz, marginal improvements from him and a massively declined Pettis. If anyone thinks that Masvidal will not defend mediocre TDs, play guard, cover up when it and gas like Pettis did then they're in for a shock.
 
Got Diaz early at +160.

Huge fan of both fighters, but Masvidal is waaaay overhyped right now.

Cardio wont be an issue for either fighter, Nate has WAY better BJJ, slick boxing, and is incredibly durable. He has more ways to win than street jesus, and his pace/output will be too much.

Fucking amazing card overall. Thompson at -1xx is a must bet, Lewis should win, and Till/Gastelum is going to be closer than people think.

Why the fuck did Kevin Lee take this fight? Gregor is legit and most people don't know who he is.

I don't know about the BJJ, didn't Maia say Jorge had the best BJJ he'd faced in MMA? I can't recall seeing him in particular trouble in grappling exchanges for a long time.
 
How does he have more ways to win? Neither guy will gas, he won't submit Masvidal, his BJJ isn't as great as people think as he's physically and at a big wrestling disadvantage. He can't KO Masvidal either so he has to win a close dec striking on volume where he has far less tools to use.

Every time Diaz faced a top level well rounded fighter like Benson, Rory, RDA etc. he got demolished. Masvidal gets into a lot of close decs with top guys but he'd have to try really hard here to do that when aside from pure BJJ he should be better everywhere.

What makes you think he won’t sub him out of curiosity?
 
What makes you think he won’t sub him out of curiosity?

I’m going to take a stab at it and say it’s because Masvidal hasn’t been subbed since 2009. And Nate can only sub people smaller than him LoL.

EVERY single fighter that Nate Diaz has submitted in the UFC has been shorter and smaller than him. Interesting stat I noticed.
 
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Mas vs Nate really is the battle of the journey men, I love the fight, love watching both guys fight, but they aren't championship level fighters. Colby and Usman would chew these guys up.

I think Masvidal is the pick for most people because he's had more impressive wins lately, but I don't know that beating Till and Askren is any better than giving Pettis a beat down. It's Anthony Pettis, he's a living legend really.

Nate with the height and reach advantage is interesting. I could see Masvidal doing what he's known for in the past and slipping into coast mode and fighting Nate's fight at Nates pace.

On the other hand Masvidal seems the fresher more athletic man, Nate looked sluggish with Pettis. There is always that 'Diaz cardio', but is it really all its cracked up to be? Modern MMA cardio guys can set a Ferguson level pace or Holloway level on the feet, guys now can wrestle hard for five solid rounds. Diaz doesn't have that kind of cardio.

Nate's path is his usual volume, just lands more over the rounds. Masvidal lands the bigger shots I suppose.

A war is expected but I keep picturing Diaz having Masvidal clinched up against the cage for long periods and working from there where he can.
 
Mas vs Nate really is the battle of the journey men, I love the fight, love watching both guys fight, but they aren't championship level fighters. Colby and Usman would chew these guys up.

I think Masvidal is the pick for most people because he's had more impressive wins lately, but I don't know that beating Till and Askren is any better than giving Pettis a beat down. It's Anthony Pettis, he's a living legend really.

Nate with the height and reach advantage is interesting. I could see Masvidal doing what he's known for in the past and slipping into coast mode and fighting Nate's fight at Nates pace.

On the other hand Masvidal seems the fresher more athletic man, Nate looked sluggish with Pettis. There is always that 'Diaz cardio', but is it really all its cracked up to be? Modern MMA cardio guys can set a Ferguson level pace or Holloway level on the feet, guys now can wrestle hard for five solid rounds. Diaz doesn't have that kind of cardio.

Nate's path is his usual volume, just lands more over the rounds. Masvidal lands the bigger shots I suppose.

A war is expected but I keep picturing Diaz having Masvidal clinched up against the cage for long periods and working from there where he can.
you lost me there bro

the rest i mostly agree
 
Lines are out on 5Dimes boys!
 
I hope the lines don't get steamed too much by the time I have access in bet365. Want to ultra max bet gastelum.
 
I hope the lines don't get steamed too much by the time I have access in bet365. Want to ultra max bet gastelum.

You in the UK? There has been a lone open for Till/Gas on a few UK books for days now... The whole card has lines up on SkyBet.
 
You in the UK? There has been a lone open for Till/Gas on a few UK books for days now... The whole card has lines up on SkyBet.
Canada. Seems lines came out in a reasonable time at bet365 thankfully.
 
Yeah this makes up for the crappy Askren vs Maia card. Right off does anyone else think Thompson should be able to control range and light up Luque up at will?
 
Yeah this makes up for the crappy Askren vs Maia card. Right off does anyone else think Thompson should be able to control range and light up Luque up at will?
Yes but if pettis can KO you, luque definitely can. Luque has a crazy chin and can walk through punches and should be able to provide thompson with some scary moments. Woodley 2x and Till and Pettis all managed to deliver a ko or near ko punch on thompson.
 
So far I like Tavares, Burgos (although I was hoping for a better line), Gastelum and Arlovski. Would play Ivanov too but fading Lewis has historically been a bad idea.
 
Got a feeling WB/Luque is going to be boring AF. WB coming off brutal KO loss probably looking to counter/snipe and Luque is a counter puncher too. Granted different styles of counter punching but still.
 
I wanna bet Darren Till, I still think he's a bit better than people think of him right now. But this line has to widen over the next couple weeks, right?

Derrick Lewis at evens is sketchy. I miss him making me money at +280. Ivanov has a pretty good line here imo

Rozenstruik looking pretty tempting here too. I don't know about putting a ton of stock into Andrei's performance against Rothwell, especially against a guy who seems this dangerous.
 
A lot of line movement and money coming in on Brad Tavares. I don't really get how people can back someone who has had the injury problems he had lately. This interview is from six moths ago.

 
A lot of line movement and money coming in on Brad Tavares. I don't really get how people can back someone who has had the injury problems he had lately. This interview is from six moths ago.



Maybe a slight fade on Edmen who's just used to quick finishes and showed some real vulnerabilities in a longer fight against Darren Stewart
 
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