UFC 244 Masvidal vs Diaz

[lifeisgood12345]

Lee’s best path to victory may be round 1 sub. Gillespie’s takedown D is a bit unproven, maybe Lee can take him down and submit him while he is still fresh.

If not gotta think Gillespie is able to impose his will wrestling in rounds 2 + 3

 

[chemmy]

Kevin Lee is going to get his asshole absolutely handed to him on a plate. How anyone would bet Kevin Lee in this fight is completely beyond me (no offense)-- he's looked TERRIBLE in his last few fights and Gregor is a force of nature. Maxing Gregor and using him as a parlay piece everywhere I can from here to til the cows come home.

I think Gregor probably outworks him in rounds 2 & 3 here for the win, but as "terrible" as Kevin Lee looked in those last 2 fights, don't forget that those were both 5 rounders and a case can be made that he was up 29-28 after 3 rounds in both of those fights. Iaquinta and RDA needed those championship rounds to drown a fading Kevin Lee and put an exclamation mark on those performances, which unfortunately happens to be a luxury that Gillespie won't have in this case.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gillespie works at a higher pace than RDA and Al. I haven't seen anyone not fade against Gregor.

 

[rev0lver]

I think Gregor probably outworks him in rounds 2 & 3 here for the win, but as "terrible" as Kevin Lee looked in those last 2 fights, don't forget that those were both 5 rounders and a case can be made that he was up 29-28 after 3 rounds in both of those fights. Iaquinta and RDA needed those championship rounds to drown a fading Kevin Lee and put an exclamation mark on those performances, which unfortunately happens to be a luxury that Gillespie won't have in this case.

This is true. His past 3 fights also all went past 3 rounds. A 3 round fight could change the dynamic for him, and when he's spent the past 2 years training for 5-round fights, his cardio might be built better for this.

To be fair I still think Gregor wins on points, but I don't think Lee's gonna be out of the fight if he doesn't find a rd 1 finish

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I think Gregor probably outworks him in rounds 2 & 3 here for the win, but as "terrible" as Kevin Lee looked in those last 2 fights, don't forget that those were both 5 rounders and a case can be made that he was up 29-28 after 3 rounds in both of those fights. Iaquinta and RDA needed those championship rounds to drown a fading Kevin Lee and put an exclamation mark on those performances, which unfortunately happens to be a luxury that Gillespie won't have in this case.

Lee hands down beats Iaquinta in a 3 rounder, arguably 3-0. RDA i think he was down 2-1 but its close.

Only problem is that Iaquinta has looked awful since then, and is the type of guy Lee should be blowing out. He would likely be drawing dead vs Gillespie. And RDA’s performance vs Edwards didn’t inspire any confidence either.

So close decisions in 3 rounds vs RDA + Iaquinta probably translate to a clear loss vs Gillespie

 

[Stunna77]

Jumped pretty heavy on early Tavares action, avg price of +150, also on Burgos -170 and WB -142 before his line plummetted briefly yesterday, which was surprising. Got my eye on a few other lines, very solid card for betting and viewing alike.

 

[Sono07]

Jumping the gun here but I saw that Hardy is apparently replacing JDS to fight Volkov November 9th.
Really feeling the urge to fade the Inhaler on short notice...

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Jumping the gun here but I saw that Hardy is apparently replacing JDS to fight Volkov November 9th.
Really feeling the urge to fade the Inhaler on short notice...

Go very heavy on volkov and hedge small with hardy ko

 

[TrueAscension]

I think Gregor probably outworks him in rounds 2 & 3 here for the win, but as "terrible" as Kevin Lee looked in those last 2 fights, don't forget that those were both 5 rounders and a case can be made that he was up 29-28 after 3 rounds in both of those fights. Iaquinta and RDA needed those championship rounds to drown a fading Kevin Lee and put an exclamation mark on those performances, which unfortunately happens to be a luxury that Gillespie won't have in this case.

I happen to be a madman that thinks Gregor would beat both Al and RDA though. He smothers.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Jumped pretty heavy on early Tavares action, avg price of +150, also on Burgos -170 and WB -142 before his line plummetted briefly yesterday, which was surprising. Got my eye on a few other lines, very solid card for betting and viewing alike.

Yeah you buggers are going to make me play Edmen if he hits +. Unfortunately I couldn't get enough on Burgos before his line dropped and I won't play him in the -200's. I have trust issues with Wonderboy after he lost to that flake; Sergio's bum older brother. It'll take some convincing but also interested in AA and Ivanov.

 

[Sono07]

Yeah you buggers are going to make me play Edmen if he hits +. Unfortunately I couldn't get enough on Burgos before his line dropped and I won't play him in the -200's. I have trust issues with Wonderboy after he lost to that flake; Sergio's bum older brother. It'll take some convincing but also interested in AA and Ivanov.

I'm really torn on Thompson. His striking is some of my favorite. That and the guy lives like an hour from me, hard to hate the carolina karate man.
Either way I think Pettis just made a really good read on his timing. Wasn't like he went down to a jab either, didn't Showtime land a superman punch as he was coming in?
That and Luque didn't look great against Perry to me. I think Perry should have/would have won that at least if he hadn't gotten a free nose job from Luque or if the card wasn't in Uruguay...

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm really torn on Thompson. His striking is some of my favorite. That and the guy lives like an hour from me, hard to hate the carolina karate man.
Either way I think Pettis just made a really good read on his timing. Wasn't like he went down to a jab either, didn't Showtime land a superman punch as he was coming in?
That and Luque didn't look great against Perry to me. I think Perry should have/would have won that at least if he hadn't gotten a free nose job from Luque or if the card wasn't in Uruguay...

Superman punch and he pushed off the cage to get airborne, if I’m remembering it right.

 

[Sono07]

Superman punch and he pushed off the cage to get airborne, if I’m remembering it right.

Close to it if not, either way Pettis may not deal with pressure well but he is a creative striker with good timing and he was losing soundly before that punch.
Have to watch more tape on this one but taking big shots from Woodly and Till isnt the worst thing if his chin isn't finally cracked.
I have to think he comes out more cautiously or trys to change up his rhythm a little.
He does keep his hands way too low in my opinion though, guess that rangey karate style is a double edged sword

 

[Sono07]

Liking WB by decision and Luque ISD/NSC so far.
I don't see Luque out pointing him and between WB's style and that KO loss can't help but think he leans a little more defensively this time

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm really torn on Thompson. His striking is some of my favorite. That and the guy lives like an hour from me, hard to hate the carolina karate man.
Either way I think Pettis just made a really good read on his timing. Wasn't like he went down to a jab either, didn't Showtime land a superman punch as he was coming in?
That and Luque didn't look great against Perry to me. I think Perry should have/would have won that at least if he hadn't gotten a free nose job from Luque or if the card wasn't in Uruguay...

Mind going for a drive and getting some intel for us? Thanks!

 

[Sauna]

Talk a finn out of max bettin makvan. U cant.

Max bet if odds get better

 

[Sono07]

Mind going for a drive and getting some intel for us? Thanks!

I can drive to Upstate Karate and peek in the window after work tomorrow if you would like. We would probably get more info from his Technique Tuesday videos on YouTube though (that's great it's Tuesday guess I do have research).
Not claiming I've meet the guy but I'm trying not to mix my fandom and my units.
Either way I still think he is capable of out pointing Luque if he can guard his chin.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Mind going for a drive and getting some intel for us? Thanks!

I watched a few of wonderboys video blogs in the lead up to losing my money on the all american who left his chin at home last weekend.
One of the reasons I bet on Wideman was that he was destroying WB in their sparing rounds on the feet and on the ground.
Makes me worry betting on Wonderboy...
... but i probably still will!

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Gastelum is going to destroy Till. I can't believe UFC is letting him take that fight. Till is so one dimensional in his standup. Gastelum will figure him out and land his left hand.

Masvidal is better than Diaz everywhere except BJJ and Maia couldnt submit him btw. I feel like Nate has been severely overrated due to the Conor fights. They chose Pettis for a reason because he had been broken by pressure from Max and Tony. Masvidal is not going to break from pressure. He is going to box Nate up.

Ivanov has shown an incredible chin and good.boxing, but has anyone ever taken a Lewis punch well except for.Nelson? I feel like Lewis will find a way to get it done.

 

[Stunna77]

Yeah you buggers are going to make me play Edmen if he hits +. Unfortunately I couldn't get enough on Burgos before his line dropped and I won't play him in the -200's. I have trust issues with Wonderboy after he lost to that flake; Sergio's bum older brother. It'll take some convincing but also interested in AA and Ivanov.

Interested in pro-Edmen arguments. I was very surprised by his wrestling, that part of his game impressed me more than his striking. To me he has gotten by on size, power and aggression on the feet. He obviously has some boxing, but I see a lot of holes in his defense on the feet and Brad is just a rock solid striker with near-elite anti-grappling. He is also very strong in the clinch and does a great job striking out on breaks. Wish we had more Edmen striking tape to go on, but from what is available, I give Tavares a pretty solid advantage there, mostly because his defense is much better and he has shown a larger toolbox.