UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

[Kowboy Karl]

There's so much wrong about this, including that he's a "must bet".

You’ve got a +250 dog on a proven vet with a size advantage a wrestling grappling advantage a cardio advantage against a guy fighting two weight classes up coming off a year long coke binge, how is that not a must bet even if it’s small

 

[LEMONZEST]

If Conor loses, let's say he gets TKO'ed late round three or in the fourth, that says to me that Conor was always a fraud and the Aldo KO was a lucky break.

Conor isn't a fraud based on whether or not he loses this fight. All good fighters win or lose it is just part of the game. There are also endless variables when it comes to injuries, weight cutting, and camps. I think sometimes as bettors we lose the wider perspective on how much is just chance and variance that is outside of our control and knowledge.
When you have 2 well trained martial artists go in there nearly any outcome is possible. Cowboy could win in r1 or win a decision. Conor could win a decision or win in r3 - who the fuck knows. The prevailing wisdom is Conor has the chance to starch him early or Cowboy takes over in the later rounds but truly nearly any outcome could happen in this fight.

 

[Red_2]

You’ve got a +250 dog on a proven vet with a size advantage a wrestling grappling advantage a cardio advantage against a guy fighting two weight classes up coming off a year long coke binge, how is that not a must bet even if it’s small

Where's your bet slip then?

 

[LEMONZEST]

You’ve got a +250 dog on a proven vet with a size advantage a wrestling grappling advantage a cardio advantage against a guy fighting two weight classes up coming off a year long coke binge, how is that not a must bet even if it’s small

It is a tough fight to call. I don't disagree with what you said but at the same time Cowboy is weak against pressure fighters which is exactly how Conor fights. Cowboy is also coming off of 2 stoppage losses. Durability wise the advantage is clearly with Conor even though his cardio is worse.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Where's your bet slip then?

waiting until next week

I think odds get even steeper

hoping to get cowboy for +300

 

[Kowboy Karl]

It is a tough fight to call. I don't disagree with what you said but at the same time Cowboy is weak against pressure fighters which is exactly how Conor fights. Cowboy is also coming off of 2 stoppage losses. Durability wise the advantage is clearly with Conor even though his cardio is worse.

I’d argue one stoppage loss for devils advocate. He blew his nose like a moron.

Conor can def win. Just think the odds are too juicy to ignore when you go down the list of who is better at what and the tale of the tape and the lay-off.

cerrone has way more paths to victory . Conor better hope that left hand lands early.

 

[Red_2]

waiting until next week

I think odds get even steeper

hoping to get cowboy for +300

Best of luck. If I didn't get Conor at earlier odds I probably would play Cowboy, but then again I'd leave it for live. Very doubtful Cerrone wins Rd 1 or 2 either way so his odds will increase. That way if he looks like a decent livebet we could get him at +400 upwards, but if he looks like he's barely surviving then can just pass. I do doubt that we'll get an opportunity live for this one.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Best of luck. If I didn't get Conor at earlier odds I probably would play Cowboy, but then again I'd leave it for live. Very doubtful Cerrone wins Rd 1 or 2 either way so his odds will increase. That way if he looks like a decent livebet we could get him at +400 upwards, but if he looks like he's barely surviving then can just pass. I do doubt that we'll get an opportunity live for this one.

I admire the levels to the game for some of you guys with the live betting strategies.

I feel like every time I try to live bet the odds change every time
You submit your password and you have to keep trying and eventually the Round starts and the bet neverr gets made. Very frustrating

 

[ill800]

I’d argue one stoppage loss for devils advocate. He blew his nose like a moron.

Conor can def win. Just think the odds are too juicy to ignore when you go down the list of who is better at what and the tale of the tape and the lay-off.

cerrone has way more paths to victory . Conor better hope that left hand lands early.

I tend to think cowboy may have been looking for a way out vs ferg. Hard to believe a seasoned fighter like that would make that kind of mistake

ferg had completely taken over the fight and was on his way to a finish imo

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I tend to think cowboy may have been looking for a way out vs ferg. Hard to believe a seasoned fighter like that would make that kind of mistake

ferg had completely taken over the fight and was on his way to a finish imo

anything’s possible.

 

[Red_2]

I admire the levels to the game for some of you guys with the live betting strategies.

I feel like every time I try to live bet the odds change every time
You submit your password and you have to keep trying and eventually the Round starts and the bet neverr gets made. Very frustrating

It really comes down to the quality of your bookie. Being in Europe/UK/Canada really allows you to have the pick of the best ones available. Some people struggle with livebetting and others thrive. All depends on your strategy.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

It really comes down to the quality of your bookie. Being in Europe/UK/Canada really allows you to have the pick of the best ones available. Some people struggle with livebetting and others thrive. All depends on your strategy.

5dimes

and I have a local guy in Vegas

 

[Vir_Ars]

Kelleher Cant cut weight, he is asking to fight at "natural weight" lol
This was a pass to me, but wil be interesting if Ode accept.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Kelleher Cant cut weight, he is asking to fight at "natural weight" lol
This was a pass to me, but wil be interesting if Ode accept.

He's just talking out loud. Dont be alarmed.

 

[Gugabe]

"Boom" Kelleher +110 ML



Is Osbourne actually good?

I'm concerned by the amount of people who seen to believe that Osbourne is an elite submission fighter. NOT Osbourne sub being -290 is insane. He's capable of getting guard subs against poor competition but 'lol triangle' is not a 25% outcome in the UFC.

If he gets a finish it'll be predicated on his striking. Tho inb4 some stupid club sub RNC that has nothing to do with grappling ability

 

[Sono07]

Any Fili bettors recommend tape?
I've seen his last few but that's it so far.
Can't help but like Yusuf as a small favorite.

Watching Yusuf v Davis I'm reminded the contender series isn't all shit.
That and Yusuf has a solid chin and fairly diverse tool box.
I'm surprised how well his power holds up and he seems to fire as well moving backwards as forwards. Chin aside I really like his high guard in all his fights.
He pulls his hands up fast and uses his elbows to deflect/roll with punches similar to Poirier.

 

[Sono07]

 

[Gugabe]

Feel like the Benitez fight's actually a pretty bad look for Yusuff. Yeah, he got the KO, but he traded at +140 from being a pre-fight -220 about 10 seconds before the KO and he was kinda getting his ass whooped for a lot of that fight. I'd pretty happily play Benitez +200 again in an immediate rematch,

 

[Sono07]

Feel like the Benitez fight's actually a pretty bad look for Yusuff. Yeah, he got the KO, but he traded at +140 from being a pre-fight -220 about 10 seconds before the KO and he was kinda getting his ass whooped for a lot of that fight. I'd pretty happily play Benitez +200 again in an immediate rematch,

While I agree that bout wasn't his best look he wasn't getting tooled before a meme ko.
They traded early and in the first 15 secs Yusuf had landed a heavy right and put Benitez on the backfoot. Not even 1 minute in and he had already cut him as well.
Personally he looked a little slow there to me but I like the way he applies and returns pressure.

 

[Gugabe]

While I agree that bout wasn't his best look he wasn't getting tooled before a meme ko.
They traded early and in the first 15 secs Yusuf had landed a heavy right and put Benitez on the backfoot. Not even 1 minute in and he had already cut him as well.
Personally he looked a little slow there to me but I like the way he applies and returns pressure.

Yeah but that gulf between the first minute of the fight and the KO was pretty stark. Yusuff won the first minute, Benitez then put him on the backfoot with dropping him and the legkicks and then Yusuff found the KO. Not saying it's complete meme KO, but it wasn't exactly a sterling showing.

Is cutting somebody especially relevant? It's prettymuch random when it happens unless you're landing elbows. Like obviously somebody's more likely to cut if you're landing frequent shots, but I'm hardly going to use a cut forming in a previous fight as especially indicative of striking skill.