UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

molest said:
Thats funny i actually would bet Aldrich if she was orthodox she had a great jab vs Maycee and thats not gonna be there vs Mazo also both of Mazo's kick kos have come from her rear leg, which is gonna be there all night vs a southpaw.
Mazo is tall and long she fights in kicking range too so its gonna be hard for Aldrich to catch her with counters or poke her with a jab like Moroz did, she's gonna have to pressure forward which im not convinced she can do so well.
I dont wanna bet Mazo at evens because she's still green but Aldrich always lets her opponents have their moments.
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Sure both headkick KO's came against SP's, but Aldrich is a much more technically sound striker then those regional level girls. It's not like Mazo was hiding it or setting it up particularly well, those girls are just flat out not good and likely never had to even worry about defending a headkick before. Add in that Mazo isn't very fast and Aldrich getting caught by a headkick is pretty low % imo. In general, Mazo's kicking game revolves around her lead leg, which is why I like the open stance matchup for Aldrich as countering with her straight left will be much easier.
 
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JimGunn said:
Spell the man's surname correctly if you have money on him, Greene! You're going to jinx us all!
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Too late....Oleinik via standing Ezikiel choke..Rd 1 hug of death.
 
JimGunn said:
Greene's height will save him, lol!
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Was gonna say his last 2 Exikiel chokes were vs 6 ft 3 but Green is fkn 6 ft 7.
Greene also has a lot of triangle chokes. Not sure I would feel comfortable with betting that, shows he ends up on his back a lot. Alexei isn't going to be posturing up for that to work.
 
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When I saw this clip in my recommended I immediately clicked! GSP has very sharp eye for predictions. And which is better - if he thinks the fight will be close or it is a two true outcome thing - he doesn't shy away from sharing it.
I was hoping he will pick a clear winner here. Despite that I stopped betting a long time ago, I was absolutely ready to drop a bomb on whoever Goerge picks. But unfortunately he didn't do that.

In short - he thinks Conor is more likely to win. The main reason for him to pick Conor seemed that Cerrone is just not known to fight according to his opponent weaknesses. He wins or loses largely depending on the match-up. He fights exactly the same every time, no matter who he faces.

My personal thoughts are that he still can pull off the victory, even without making specific adaptations for McGregor. Cerrone @ 170 is a bit more fleet of foot and as GSP pointed it out - movement is crutial vs the sniper type of fighter. I also like that Cowboy has more experice fighting at that weight. But in the end of the day Cowboy still has to make an effort to leverage his advantages in order to win, he can't win just showing up and fighting like usual.
 
Ledet as dog is questionable IMO. No huge shame in losing to Rakic, and I don't think the Walker result's especially meaningful or relevant.
 
ill800 said:
We have multiple recovering addicts here, myself being one of them

I was a marijuana junkie
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Marijuana? OMG!!!! Not the dreaded Devil Weed!!!!!! You are lucky to be alive. So what were the negative effects? Did you lose your house? Did it make you violent? What about making you analyze your faults too much? Did it make you want to be a better person by dissolving your False Ego? Sounds scary. Like I said. You are lucky to be alive.
 
i wish i couldve got more money down at fight wont start round 4 -225 in the connor fight... added it to a bunch of parlays feels like a 100% lock tbh

cerrone always crumbles under pressure i just remembered the title fight with rda where he just quit 30 seconds into the fight. i could see him being really anxious to start out the fight cuz this is the biggest ufc fight in a long time and just getting knocked out in the first round. i dont think cerrone will be able to take him down when hes fresh in the 1st.
 
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Vir_Ars said:
You think that Greene is worth a bet? Oleynik is a easy fade, but Greene don't look that smart and not even that Powerful.
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I wouldn't bet him now but I bet him when he was the dog.

Under 1.5 is probably a good bet
 
Gugabe said:
Ledet as dog is questionable IMO. No huge shame in losing to Rakic, and I don't think the Walker result's especially meaningful or relevant.
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I agree, still couldn't go more than .5u given he doesn't really seem to care about shoring up his weaknesses and who knows what he has been doing for the last year coming off two beatings. Camur isn't impressive, but he is young and an above average athlete. Been burned by guys like him looking totally different in UFC debuts compared to pre-ufc tape. Still would line Ledet as a slight fav.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Cause Conor's coaches did so well with him against Diaz, Khabib, Mayweather all of which have well understood games and we all saw Conor get stomped. Cerrone is an idiot so probably tries to box and loses, but if he fights a smart game this wouldn't be a overly difficult fight for him. A variety of kicks at range which Conor is open for and then clinch or shoot reactive TDs when Conor closes the distance to box. Conor does not have the cardio to go 5 rounds with Cerrone, he doesn't weigh over 200 pounds like Till or have his defensive wrestling, he certainly doesn't have the sub defence to survive Cerrone on the mat especially when he's tired.

How much does Conor even train now? The fact he's a former featherweight and can't even be bothered with fighting at lightweight says a lot. Not to mention Conor was getting dropped by Khabib of all people last time we saw him. So many red flags to have on a -2xx favourite.
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Agreed...and now a -3xx favorite...
I'd pick Conor straight up, but at +250, you best believe I'm gonna put a couple of units on Cowboy
 
Naught2Sixty said:
"Boom" Kelleher +110 ML

{<jordan}

Is Osbourne actually good?
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He's a good striker for about a round. After that, it's a mystery with some evidence from maybe too long ago that he fades.

Ode is enough of a mystery that it's easy to see his aethetically pleasing southpaw style and impute talent and athleticism. Not a bad assumption.

But getting dog odds on a vet versus a R1 finisher who has no wins even over higher tier regional talent, making a debut, who has suspect takedown defense and likes to work off his back? Seems like a pretty tasty gamble to me.
 
Cerrone is a must bet here at these odds

he’s good at kicking people in the head and Conor is a midget. Add to the fact Conor looks like a balloon animal body builder his cardio is most likely going to be even worse. Hard to keep those hands up.

cerrone also can wrestle fuck him and submit him. At worst get him in the clinch and tire him out. Peoples memory’s of the second Diaz fight really must have faded. He was gassed at the 7 minute mark. Cerrone is a cardio machine.
 
Kowboy Karl said:
Cerrone is a must bet here at these odds

he’s good at kicking people in the head and Conor is a midget. Add to the fact Conor looks like a balloon animal body builder his cardio is most likely going to be even worse. Hard to keep those hands up.

cerrone also can wrestle fuck him and submit him. At worst get him in the clinch and tire him out. Peoples memory’s of the second Diaz fight really must have faded. He was gassed at the 7 minute mark. Cerrone is a cardio machine.
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There's so much wrong about this, including that he's a "must bet".
 
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