UFC 250

mkess101 said:
Or Tony (who's only 36, not 38). He just looked noticeably slower vs Justin. Punches he'd roll with in the past were landing flush from the start.
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As a fan of Tony I was noticing a sharp decline in his speed, as well as in his physique since the RDA fight. I wasn't too worried because I figured his game is not that physical, he is a tempo fighter. But nah, man. Because his lack of traditional technique and fundamentals, he really needs that additional speed and strength. Or maybe Gaethje was too much... Fuck it, I wanted him to win so bad. :(
 
Jordan3399 said:
Is he a multi time world bjj champ? BJJ heroes has his highest achievement down as CBJJ No-Gi champ in 2011 and his own social media only calls him a Brazilian No-Gi champ. Whatever the case Gilbert is far better in MMA with his wrestling and athleticism vs Herbert who wants to roll for leg locks, play guard and got his back taken by someone like Minner. It also looked poor against guys like Movlid who took him down repeatedly sitting in his guard and passing it. Sure Burns has a decent guard no doubt but the way he uses it in MMA isn't great and relying on it against Dunham seems like a big mistake.

He does have that alright trip but I haven't seen much else from him impressive and that seems to be his only TD option and his setups aren't great. There's not a depth of skill there that he can go to when the first option fails. I think it would take major regression in Dunham for him to get easily TD'd like Landwehr, and he looked great weighing in and didn't look bad at all before he retired either.

I don't think Dunham should be heavily favoured but stylistically its a easy match up for him when Burns is likely reliant on an early finish and there isn't any clear path to one. He's not a big KO threat and his wrestling doesn't seem adequate to reliably implement his BJJ and even if he can get Dunham down he shouldn't be easy to submit.
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Sorry he's 4 time Brazilian champ, only one time world champ. That's my bad. Regardless, he's pretty damn decorated.

It could be that I'm just plain overly biased of fading guys at Dunham's age in the lower weight classes. Doubly so coming off long layoffs. I agree, Herbert isn't in his brother's league. But Dunham (as much as I like the guy) was never the caliber of fighter that someone like Woodley is. Meaning that Herbert doesn't NEED to be Gilbert for this matchup.

Like I said, Evan literally has not finished an opponent in EIGHT YEARS and 5 months. It is VERY hard for me to fathom betting on a guy at +200 who's 38, coming off an almost 2 year layoff, who hasn't finished an opponent since 2012. If Evan proves me wrong, good on him. I've always liked him. I just can't see considering him at current odds. I cap Burns as a bigger favorite than he currently is.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
As a fan of Tony I was noticing a sharp decline in his speed, as well as in his physique since the RDA fight. I wasn't too worried because I figured his game is not that physical, he is a tempo fighter. But nah, man. Because his lack of traditional technique and fundamentals, he really needs that additional speed and strength. Or maybe Gaethje was too much... Fuck it, I wanted him to win so bad. :(
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Yeah man, that was hard for me to watch. I've loved watching him for so long. I like Justin a lot too, but seeing Tony beaten to the punch nonstop was brutal. Maybe the 2 weight cuts had something to do with it...but you just can't be truly elite at that age in these weight classes for very long. Speed, timing, reflexes all decline. I was surprised his chin held up like it did to be honest. Justin is putting guys to sleep with those shots and Tony ate them for 23 minutes and still didn't go down.

We'll see what he looks like next time out, but I have to think a big decline is here. I hope I'm wrong, but you just don't beat Father Time.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Non-Americans probably don't get this reference lol. Unless they're Trump supporters then they know everything about their enemy the Democrat.
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Hilarious you said that because I was originally not going to add the eight years part but then I thought the same damn thing you said. "How many people are not going to realize at all how f'ing long ago that is..."

Ha ha great minds and all that.
 
mkess101 said:
Not for me but a lot of that is me seeing Evan as completely shot. When OAM is blasting you that's not good.

I'm all in on Burns here, full fade of Evan.

Which sucks because I always liked Dunham.
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Agreed.
Sono07 said:
I've got to disagree about the grappling. He is pretty high level and I think the cage favors his style. I will say he is no Gilbert on the feet but it can't hurt to have him as a training partner.
Evan does looks like he is in good shape. To be fighting a former lightweight Herbert looks like the bigger man to me though.
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100% agreed. Dunham being 38 coming off a 2 year lay off and decisively lost his last 2. Herbert training with legit guys and obviously his brother. Very few older fighters are doing well against younger ones.
 
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I wish Assuncao wasn't 38 and coming off of a brutal loss to Magic Marlon and outclassed by Sandhagen.
 
mkess101 said:
@mposhtkouhi

Here's your hail mary parlay bud. EZ MONEY!!!!!

$10 wins around $500

View attachment 774075
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can u explain the Garbrandt points handicapp please? does that mean he has to win or not lose by 3.5 points on combined judges score card? so 29-28 across the board is the threshold basically? ive never bet on that, seems kinda tough with how judges score nowadays, but its interesting....

i like ur parlay, but that garbrandt/assuncao fight is the one im most hesitant about. i actually have a very similar one as u but with perez and sans hooper (just have no confidence in him at all)
 
It means he wins ITD or by 4 points on the cards
29-28,29-28,30-27
 
markys00 said:
can u explain the Garbrandt points handicapp please? does that mean he has to win or not lose by 3.5 points on combined judges score card? so 29-28 across the board is the threshold basically? ive never bet on that, seems kinda tough with how judges score nowadays, but its interesting....

i like ur parlay, but that garbrandt/assuncao fight is the one im most hesitant about. i actually have a very similar one as u but with perez and sans hooper (just have no confidence in him at all)
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So if Garbandt wins inside the distance, the bet cashes. If he loses inside the distance, it doesn't.

If the fight goes to decision, you just add up all the scorecards and it's like a point spread bet in another sport. So yeah, 29-28 across the board for Cody would not cash because his total would only be 3 points higher than Assuncao's. If it was 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 for Cody, that cashes because he wins by 5 points total, covering the -3.5. If you bet Assuncao +3.5 and it's Cody 29-28 across the board, then your Assuncao bet cashes. But that's juiced, while Cody's -3.5 is at + odds.

The rationale is that IF Cody wins (no guarantee of course), most likely does it in fairly dominant fashion imo. I think the likelihood of him winning a contested decision is pretty low. Either Cody's speed and boxing are going to make Assuncao look slow and outclassed, or they won't and Cody's chin maybe is actually that bad and he gets put away. Or Assuncao finds a way to to get Cody down and dominates the grappling. I lean toward Cody simply outclassing Assuncao with speed and offensive boxing. I just think a closely contested decision is unlikely in this fight.
 
mkess101 said:
So if Garbandt wins inside the distance, the bet cashes. If he loses inside the distance, it doesn't.

If the fight goes to decision, you just add up all the scorecards and it's like a point spread bet in another sport. So yeah, 29-28 across the board for Cody would not cash because his total would only be 3 points higher than Assuncao's. If it was 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 for Cody, that cashes because he wins by 5 points total, covering the -3.5. If you bet Assuncao +3.5 and it's Cody 29-28 across the board, then your Assuncao bet cashes. But that's juiced, while Cody's -3.5 is at + odds.

The rationale is that IF Cody wins (no guarantee of course), most likely does it in fairly dominant fashion imo. I think the likelihood of him winning a contested decision is pretty low. Either Cody's speed and boxing are going to make Assuncao look slow and outclassed, or they won't and Cody's chin maybe is actually that bad and he gets put away. Or Assuncao finds a way to to get Cody down and dominates the grappling. I lean toward Cody simply outclassing Assuncao with speed and offensive boxing. I just think a closely contested decision is unlikely in this fight.
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yea, i got ya. i wish this fight happened a few years back.. im not sure if i believe that cody is that good. the cruz win is what most ppl think about and that seems to be a result of alpha male studying cruz for years. i dont mind being wrong, assuncao isnt my big bet on this one.

thanks for explaining the line. excited to see if i can use this somehow. im not big into covering the spread lines in other sports, so i guess i'll see.


curious whats ur thought on magny/martin?
 
markys00 said:
yea, i got ya. i wish this fight happened a few years back.. im not sure if i believe that cody is that good. the cruz win is what most ppl think about and that seems to be a result of alpha male studying cruz for years. i dont mind being wrong, assuncao isnt my big bet on this one.

thanks for explaining the line. excited to see if i can use this somehow. im not big into covering the spread lines in other sports, so i guess i'll see.


curious whats ur thought on magny/martin?
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Yeah we'll see on Cody. Assuncao is 38 and coming off 2 losses, I think he's declining. Cody I think has shown awful fight IQ, and should be faster and the better striker IF he stays within himself. But that's a big "if".

I lean Magny decision. I like Rocco, but he's just too inactive. And mainly, I trust Magny's fight IQ. I think he's going to make it a grinding fight, pushing Martin against the cage a lot but being careful going to the mat (Rocco's grappling is very good, although people forget Magny outgrappled Gastelum so it's not like Magny isn't capable on the mat too). Would be surprised to see a finish.
 
mkess101 said:
I lean Magny decision. I like Rocco, but he's just too inactive.
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Tony looked in phenomenal shape at weigh ins. Is Magny in trouble?
anthony-rocco-martin-poses-on-the-scale-during-the-ufc-250-weighin-at-picture-id1246377653

neil-magny-anthony-rocco-martin-ufc-250-official-weigh-ins.jpg
 
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