UFC 250

matthew55 said:
I kinda think not having a crowd there will help Cody stay calm and not lose his shit once he gets hit with somethin..had to take Martin rd 3 win since he's been coming on strong late in fights and his NSC is probably one of the safer picks..also think Dunham should survive the 3 rounds, yes he got TKO'd his last 2 fights but both by vicious knees that would hurt anyone imo
Click to expand...

Evan is 38 now, fighting at LW (this is catchweight I guess but still a lower weight). Can't imagine his durability isn't sharply declining along with everything else. Getting to this age at these lower weights (170 and under), it's so rare that you don't see very steep dropoffs in almost all areas. Remember how impossible Woodley used to be to take down? Well, okay, Usman did but he's a hell of a wrestler. But did you see how easily Burns got in on Tyron's hips to take him down last weekend? That's just age. Or Tony (who's only 36, not 38). He just looked noticeably slower vs Justin. Punches he'd roll with in the past were landing flush from the start.

There are loads and loads more examples of how quickly guys decline at the lower weights once they reach mid to late 30's. Gomi and Penn are two of the best LW's ever and they both fell off a cliff when they got near this age. Gomi struggled a little even earlier when he first came to the UFC in his early 30's, but once he hit 35 he was getting KO'd every time out. Look at BJ over the last 5-6 years. And there are more and more examples.

This got longer than I wanted but I think as a general rule, age gets taken into account too much at the heavier weights (look at Glover vs Smith for example) and too little at the lower weights. I don't think Evan survives, and Burns rd 1 wouldn't surprise me at all.
 
Rewatching Baby Burns last fight I don't see why his price is improving. A little green and his strike defense needs work but still. He came out fast and aggressively against Landwehr, who is tough if nothing else.

Great grappling, legit takedowns, solid shot selection. I think he can run through Dunham. I'm usually not for bjj guys pulling guard but I think Burns could safely use it as a fall back here.
 
mkess101 said:
Evan is 38 now, fighting at LW (this is catchweight I guess but still a lower weight). Can't imagine his durability isn't sharply declining along with everything else. Getting to this age at these lower weights (170 and under), it's so rare that you don't see very steep dropoffs in almost all areas. Remember how impossible Woodley used to be to take down? Well, okay, Usman did but he's a hell of a wrestler. But did you see how easily Burns got in on Tyron's hips to take him down last weekend? That's just age. Or Tony (who's only 36, not 38). He just looked noticeably slower vs Justin. Punches he'd roll with in the past were landing flush from the start.

There are loads and loads more examples of how quickly guys decline at the lower weights once they reach mid to late 30's. Gomi and Penn are two of the best LW's ever and they both fell off a cliff when they got near this age. Gomi struggled a little even earlier when he first came to the UFC in his early 30's, but once he hit 35 he was getting KO'd every time out. Look at BJ over the last 5-6 years. And there are more and more examples.

This got longer than I wanted but I think as a general rule, age gets taken into account too much at the heavier weights (look at Glover vs Smith for example) and too little at the lower weights. I don't think Evan survives, and Burns rd 1 wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click to expand...
I had a feeling I'd get a response from you lol (much appreciated). I'm not saying Evan's gonna win, but I just disagree with the durability issue. I know its a big if, but if those knees to his body don't land in his last 2 fights, I don't think we'd be talking about durability so much. To me, it's almost flukey that he got tko'd twice in a row by knees to the body, especially when you see how perfect they landed. Who knows, I'm probably wrong as usual lol but at least it's the first fight so we'll get to see early on.
 
Sono07 said:
Rewatching Baby Burns last fight I don't see why his price is improving. A little green and his strike defense needs work but still. He came out fast and aggressively against Landwehr, who is tough if nothing else.

Great grappling, legit takedowns, solid shot selection. I think he can run through Dunham. I'm usually not for bjj guys pulling guard but I think Burns could safely use it as a fall back here.
Click to expand...

It's obvious his bjj is extremely high level. He hits the beautiful trip takedown and instantly has Nate's neck with a d'arce locked up. Nate defended well, didn't panic, and finally worked his way back to his feet but he was in some jeopardy just with the initial sub attempt. I'm not sure at this point Evan (even though he's a very capable grappler) will have it in him to fight off a choke like that. Maybe he will, but I'm not sure.

And there are definitely defensive striking liabilities with Herbert, no question. The thing is, if Evan was a big (or even moderately big) puncher that would worry me. But he never was, and it's probably even more true now. He's a grinder that relied on good grappling and pace and the ability to outwork his opponents. I can't see that working here. Unless Herbert gasses (possible I guess) or Evan somehow is able to wall n stall him for most of the fight, I think this is easy work for little Burns.
 
matthew55 said:
I had a feeling I'd get a response from you lol (much appreciated). I'm not saying Evan's gonna win, but I just disagree with the durability issue. I know its a big if, but if those knees to his body don't land in his last 2 fights, I don't think we'd be talking about durability so much. To me, it's almost flukey that he got tko'd twice in a row by knees to the body, especially when you see how perfect they landed. Who knows, I'm probably wrong as usual lol but at least it's the first fight so we'll get to see early on.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind I'm not questioning his durability based on those 2 KO losses (they don't help, but they aren't my main point) as much as him just being ancient for the smaller weight classes.
 
I think the under in GM3 vs Ian is very live. GM3 is always looking for the finish and Ian is not shy to engage.
 
Sono07 said:
Rewatching Baby Burns last fight I don't see why his price is improving. A little green and his strike defense needs work but still. He came out fast and aggressively against Landwehr, who is tough if nothing else.

Great grappling, legit takedowns, solid shot selection. I think he can run through Dunham. I'm usually not for bjj guys pulling guard but I think Burns could safely use it as a fall back here.
Click to expand...
Burns striking is straight up bad, no boxing defence at all and that clinch knee attempt was seriously low percentage. He's tried it in past fights as well and just got teed off on more. Dunham's issue was always bodyshots and Burns really isn't a big striking threat at all. Could land a knee to the body in the clinch maybe but thats not a solid ptv, his clinch game is generally weak he just awkwardly grabs the Thai plum and hopes for the best when getting boxed up.

Dunhams also a 1st Degree black belt, doubtful he gets guard subbed, Herbert doesn't have half the grappling credentials of his brother and playing guard in MMA just doesn't end well. Burns wrestling isn't great and Dunhams got solid TDD so it'll be tough to get him down. The last guy to do it was Cerrone in 2013 and he put a beating on Dunham first.

The Burns price seems way off. He isn't anywhere near the fighter his brother is and Dunham looks in great shape and has been competing in grappling in his time off, stylistically he offers no easy ptv for Burns and even in his last fight with Trinaldo it was competitive.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Burns striking is straight up bad, no boxing defence at all and that clinch knee attempt was seriously low percentage. He's tried it in past fights as well and just got teed off on more. Dunham's issue was always bodyshots and Burns really isn't a big striking threat at all. Could land a knee to the body in the clinch maybe but thats not a solid ptv, his clinch game is generally weak he just awkwardly grabs the Thai plum and hopes for the best when getting boxed up.

Dunhams also a 1st Degree black belt, doubtful he gets guard subbed, Herbert doesn't have half the grappling credentials of his brother and playing guard in MMA just doesn't end well. Burns wrestling isn't great and Dunhams got solid TDD so it'll be tough to get him down. The last guy to do it was Cerrone in 2013 and he put a beating on Dunham first.

The Burns price seems way off. He isn't anywhere near the fighter his brother is and Dunham looks in great shape and has been competing in grappling in his time off, stylistically he offers no easy ptv for Burns and even in his last fight with Trinaldo it was competitive.
Click to expand...

Herbert is a multiple time world bjj champ. Exactly how decorated do you want him to be?

His trip TD of Landwehr looked pretty damn good for a guy who's wrestling isn't great. It was smooth, fast, and slick and Burns instantly had Nate defending the d'arce. As in, zero pause between TD and transition to sub attempt.

Maybe Evan surprises here but almost 2 year layoff, 38, and coming off 2 KO losses is why the line is this wide.
 
I'll also add that the last time Dunham finished an opponent, Obama was being sworn in for his second term. It's been over EIGHT YEARS. If you're gonna play Dunham at +200, might as well play his Dec line at +300 for the extra payout.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Burns striking is straight up bad, no boxing defence at all and that clinch knee attempt was seriously low percentage. He's tried it in past fights as well and just got teed off on more. Dunham's issue was always bodyshots and Burns really isn't a big striking threat at all. Could land a knee to the body in the clinch maybe but thats not a solid ptv, his clinch game is generally weak he just awkwardly grabs the Thai plum and hopes for the best when getting boxed up.

Dunhams also a 1st Degree black belt, doubtful he gets guard subbed, Herbert doesn't have half the grappling credentials of his brother and playing guard in MMA just doesn't end well. Burns wrestling isn't great and Dunhams got solid TDD so it'll be tough to get him down. The last guy to do it was Cerrone in 2013 and he put a beating on Dunham first.

The Burns price seems way off. He isn't anywhere near the fighter his brother is and Dunham looks in great shape and has been competing in grappling in his time off, stylistically he offers no easy ptv for Burns and even in his last fight with Trinaldo it was competitive.
Click to expand...
I've got to disagree about the grappling. He is pretty high level and I think the cage favors his style. I will say he is no Gilbert on the feet but it can't hurt to have him as a training partner.
Evan does looks like he is in good shape. To be fighting a former lightweight Herbert looks like the bigger man to me though.
 
mkess101 said:
Herbert is a multiple time world bjj champ. Exactly how decorated do you want him to be?

His trip TD of Landwehr looked pretty damn good for a guy who's wrestling isn't great. It was smooth, fast, and slick and Burns instantly had Nate defending the d'arce. As in, zero pause between TD and transition to sub attempt.

Maybe Evan surprises here but almost 2 year layoff, 38, and coming off 2 KO losses is why the line is this wide.
Click to expand...
Is he a multi time world bjj champ? BJJ heroes has his highest achievement down as CBJJ No-Gi champ in 2011 and his own social media only calls him a Brazilian No-Gi champ. Whatever the case Gilbert is far better in MMA with his wrestling and athleticism vs Herbert who wants to roll for leg locks, play guard and got his back taken by someone like Minner. It also looked poor against guys like Movlid who took him down repeatedly sitting in his guard and passing it. Sure Burns has a decent guard no doubt but the way he uses it in MMA isn't great and relying on it against Dunham seems like a big mistake.

He does have that alright trip but I haven't seen much else from him impressive and that seems to be his only TD option and his setups aren't great. There's not a depth of skill there that he can go to when the first option fails. I think it would take major regression in Dunham for him to get easily TD'd like Landwehr, and he looked great weighing in and didn't look bad at all before he retired either.

I don't think Dunham should be heavily favoured but stylistically its a easy match up for him when Burns is likely reliant on an early finish and there isn't any clear path to one. He's not a big KO threat and his wrestling doesn't seem adequate to reliably implement his BJJ and even if he can get Dunham down he shouldn't be easy to submit.
 
Sono07 said:
I've got to disagree about the grappling. He is pretty high level and I think the cage favors his style. I will say he is no Gilbert on the feet but it can't hurt to have him as a training partner.
Evan does looks like he is in good shape. To be fighting a former lightweight Herbert looks like the bigger man to me though.
Click to expand...
Burns has been outgrappled before in MMA, watch his fight with Movlid for example he gets thoroughly outgrappled. Don't get me wrong Movlid is good but he's base is freestyle wrestling he's not even a generic 'master of sport in sambo' type. Guys like Minner were also passing his guard and taking his back as well. Gilbert is several levels above wrestling, striking, athletically and a solid step ahead with his BJJ as well. Burns has a great chance to win with Dunhams age but the line is far too wide.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Burns has been outgrappled before in MMA, watch his fight with Movlid for example he gets thoroughly outgrappled. Don't get me wrong Movlid is good but he's base is freestyle wrestling he's not even a generic 'master of sport in sambo' type. Guys like Minner were also passing his guard and taking his back as well. Gilbert is several levels above wrestling, striking, athletically and a solid step ahead with his BJJ as well. Burns has a great chance to win with Dunhams age but the line is far too wide.
Click to expand...
Seems like he has improved since fighting Movlid in 2017. Herbert does seem a little too trusting in his bjj but I think he is gaining confidence in his striking. I will say I like Burns line alot better now than I did.
 
Listening to Cody's kidney infection / failure... it sounds brutal. He was in the hospital 3 times.

He says his game-plan is control emotions, stay patient and get him tired, Push the pace. Let the fight present itself instead of making it happen, be elusive, patience, be creative, "I'm anxious to get in there, before I didn't have the love, now I love it"

 
Last edited:
mkess101 said:
I'll also add that the last time Dunham finished an opponent, Obama was being sworn in for his second term. It's been over EIGHT YEARS. If you're gonna play Dunham at +200, might as well play his Dec line at +300 for the extra payout.
Click to expand...
Non-Americans probably don't get this reference lol. Unless they're Trump supporters then they know everything about their enemy the Democrat.
 
Card said:
Listening to Cody's kidney infection / failure... it sounds brutal. He was in the hospital 3 times.

He says his game-plan is control emotions, stay patient and get him tired, Push the pace. Let the fight present itself instead of making it happen, be elusive, patience, be creative, "I'm anxious to get in there, before I didn't have the love, now I love it"

Click to expand...

Alright Cody is it love or no love? Long video, do you know when he meantions the kidney issues?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,517
Messages
55,497,218
Members
174,794
Latest member
tobynixon

Share this page

Back
Top