UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

[AK-47]

,,Gane is overrated"


Dude is future contender, he will smoke glass chin cigano

probably inside a round aswell

 

[Spath]

Pineda won the first round 10-8 and reversed the position to completely smash Burns in the second. His grappling looked pretty insane to me. It wouldnt surprise me if he wasnt off the juice at all.

I rewatched that fight, you’re right. Pineda easily took the first, with new rules a clear 10-8 I’d say. In the second Burns started well, had Pineda in some trouble and landed some damage. Nice scrambling to get back on top by Pineda and secured a nasty crusifix where he made the referee step in.

His grappling really looked good and he was strong. He didn’t look that good standing up, so we’ll see if he tries to grapple with Swanson

 

[Broe.]

The Pineda ko prop at +800 stands out to me. I feel like if Pineda wins a sub or a ko is equally likely.

 

[svmr_db]

The Pineda ko prop at +800 stands out to me. I feel like if Pineda wins a sub or a ko is equally likely.

Not to get too much into wiki-capping, but Cub has been submitted 5 times in the UFC alone. He has only been finished once by KO / TKO, to Jose Aldo back in 2009. Also of note is Pineda finished his last fight by submission, and has 18 career submissions compared to 9 by KO / TKO.

Although Cub is getting up there in age and anything can happen, I'd still figure a submission victory by Pineda as much more probable.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Cub has a lot of mileage on him. Wasn’t Kron Gracie hurting him with punches?

 

[Dooze]

Gane probably wins but at 9.5 I had to drop 0.5U on JDS decision.

Also managed to get 1.5U on Jacare sub @ 6.0 (was 5.5, I had an odds boost available). Holland absolutely has to avoid the ground to win and though I think Jacare can probably take him down at some point if he doesn't get KOed, I also think the longer the fight goes on Holland is dumb enough to shoot a takedown himself - I remember him grappling unnecessarily with GM3 and Stewart also took him down a few times. GM3 nearly submitted him, that was only last year and Jacare won't be so forgiving if he gets the chance.

 

[chill doggie]

Been in the back of my head how Ferguson looked really bad against Gaethje and considered that his age and mileage could be setting him up for an L here but just remembered that he cut weight twice in a month before the fight against Justin.

Maybe he’s not as shot as I wondered.
Wonder if he’s gonna come back beasting.

All the damage and psychiatric issues hold me back a bit on placing a bet on him but my confidence is swaying now.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Tony thrives in wars(aside from the Gaethje fight).

Oliveira has been broken in fights more times than Tony has lost in the UFC.

Oliveira could win the stand up battle in round 1, and then eat an elbow standing and just mentally quit like we've seen him do numerous times.

It's hard not to side with Tony, but as his price tag gets closer to -200 it's also hard to lay that kind of juice on him after his last performance.

I'm glad I got him at -130, but I wont be making any further plays on him.

 

[Richard Cruz]

Just put my bet on Holland and then saw a rumor tweet that he’s fighting a lower leg injury.

 

[loller90278]

who wants to explain to me why chase hooper is -400?

 

[BigSteve]

Been in the back of my head how Ferguson looked really bad against Gaethje and considered that his age and mileage could be setting him up for an L here but just remembered that he cut weight twice in a month before the fight against Justin.

Maybe he’s not as shot as I wondered.
Wonder if he’s gonna come back beasting.

All the damage and psychiatric issues hold me back a bit on placing a bet on him but my confidence is swaying now.

I remember everyone was saying the same thing after his mental episode before Cerrone. Guy thrives in chaos, that, or a torn ACL and coming back early, nothing affects him.

Olivera is more dangerous than Cerrone in my opinion but still a solid line if its the same Fergie.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Gane decision at +315 isn't that bad.
I clearly don't see how Junior takes this but I would give him 50% of chance to survive the 3 rounds. Might be worth 1u;


-180 is a great line for Ferg. The only thing I see Oliveira having an advantage over Ferg is striking technique. Other than that, Tony is wilder, way stronger, better cardio, doesn't give up quite as much, and has better overall grappling. How he has recovered from the Gaethje fight is a questionmark though.
Still willing to take the "risk". Tony would be -500 if it wasn't for the Gaethje fight, so I guess there is some value there. Planning to put 3u on Ferg.

Already took Dern at -190. It's a shame I missed the early lines where I could have got her at -135 but still took her because she should be -230 to -250 IMO. Jandiroba has no other option than laying and praying on her for 3 rounds. She is getting her ass kicked 100% on the feet, and she ain't submitting Dern for shit. The only ones to ever submit Dern were Michelle Nicolini (that was when Dern was in her early 20's and she got that submission back on Nicolini after that), Bia Mesquita (the Wbjj Goat and legit 15 pounds heavier than Dern, and that was when Dern was already one foot out of bjj) and Gabi Garcia, who is 110 pounds heavier than her and ragdolled Wanderlei in TUF lol
So 4u on Dern ML at -190 and 0.5u on Virna dec at +300 just in case is my play, and probably one of the most confident of the year.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

who wants to explain to me why chase hooper is -400?

Barrett's sub defense aint great.

 

[loller90278]

Barrett's sub defense aint great.

i dunno, i watched his fight with zalal today and he managed to not get subbed while having zalal on his back for 5+ minutes.

he's got decent enough wrestling to mitigate hooper and really good cardio. He's definitely a value bet and a live dog.

Tbh, Hooper didn't even look like he should be in the UFC during his fight with caceres.

I'll be hammering barrett by dec once the props open up. I might hedge hooper sub

 

[burge13]

i dunno, i watched his fight with zalal today and he managed to not get subbed while having zalal on his back for 5+ minutes.

he's got decent enough wrestling to mitigate hooper and really good cardio. He's definitely a value bet and a live dog.

Tbh, Hooper didn't even look like he should be in the UFC during his fight with caceres.

I'll be hammering barrett by dec once the props open up. I might hedge hooper sub

+600 down under for Barrett Dec

 

[Martialbeef]

Cub has a lot of mileage on him. Wasn’t Kron Gracie hurting him with punches?

Definitely not. I think it was just mentally draining for Cub as Kron went zombie and should have went down at some point. Kron kept throwing but Cub was getting the better of pretty much every exchange if I remember well.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

i dunno, i watched his fight with zalal today and he managed to not get subbed while having zalal on his back for 5+ minutes.

he's got decent enough wrestling to mitigate hooper and really good cardio. He's definitely a value bet and a live dog.

Tbh, Hooper didn't even look like he should be in the UFC during his fight with caceres.

I'll be hammering barrett by dec once the props open up. I might hedge hooper sub

I'll give ya that. His sub defense looked to be improved against Zalal. I will admit I played Barrett in that fight and his contender series fight. Might play his Dec prop but we'll see

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Plays I’m liking for this week...

Jacare sub and Oliveira by DEC

I knew that Holland shouldn’t be a fav over someone who would melt him on the ground and the market has corrected itself, with Jacare being at pick em odds when he was like +150.

Tony took such a bad beating in the Gaethje fight that I’m surprised to see him as a favorite over Oliveira. Do Bronx looked like he leveled up, similarly to T-city. He made Kevin Lee his b*tch with intelligent striking and grappling that Kevin Lee was completely thrown off by. I personally cap oliveira as the favorite here and favor the fight to go the decision at a -200 clip.

anyways, should be a good ass PPV to cap off the craziest year of this millennia so far. Good luck everyone, and I hope everyone profits this holiday season <3

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Gane decision at +315 isn't that bad.
I clearly don't see how Junior takes this but I would give him 50% of chance to survive the 3 rounds. Might be worth 1u;


-180 is a great line for Ferg. The only thing I see Oliveira having an advantage over Ferg is striking technique. Other than that, Tony is wilder, way stronger, better cardio, doesn't give up quite as much, and has better overall grappling. How he has recovered from the Gaethje fight is a questionmark though.
Still willing to take the "risk". Tony would be -500 if it wasn't for the Gaethje fight, so I guess there is some value there. Planning to put 3u on Ferg.

Already took Dern at -190. It's a shame I missed the early lines where I could have got her at -135 but still took her because she should be -230 to -250 IMO. Jandiroba has no other option than laying and praying on her for 3 rounds. She is getting her ass kicked 100% on the feet, and she ain't submitting Dern for shit. The only ones to ever submit Dern were Michelle Nicolini (that was when Dern was in her early 20's and she got that submission back on Nicolini after that), Bia Mesquita (the Wbjj Goat and legit 15 pounds heavier than Dern, and that was when Dern was already one foot out of bjj) and Gabi Garcia, who is 110 pounds heavier than her and ragdolled Wanderlei in TUF lol
So 4u on Dern ML at -190 and 0.5u on Virna dec at +300 just in case is my play, and probably one of the most confident of the year.

Idk man, it's hard to lay the juice on Dern. Dern's last two wins were hardly impressive, as Cifers was completely outmatched, and Markos hasn't had a real camp since COVID began and is a .500 fighter irregardless.

I'm not sure how you can confidently say Dern beats her on the feet. They both have completely dogshit stand up, if anything Jandiroba throws a bit more volume, and Dern has a bit more power.

Dern has 0 takedown offense. If this goes to the ground, it will be on Jandiroba's terms. She has solid top control, and banking on Dern to sub someone who isn't a complete scrub and actually has decent BJJ is a stretch.

I'm actually pretty big on Jandiroba +155 here. Dern has the name recognition, and people are hyped she's training with Rockhold this camp(LOL). This should be a pick'em, I think it's insane to cap Dern at -250.

If she had a great offensive wrestling game, maybe.

 

[conscience]

2U on Olives, sadness hedge. 2U on Dern, but I will wait until after the weigh ins. I think she wins this one on the feet.