UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

[HockeyBjj]

Izzy weighed in at 200.5 for anyone curious of that. Pretty sure that's just his post camp walking weight as I don't think he was a 205+ 20 pound cutter to make 185.

Him talking about weighing in at 193 was just him talking out his ass apparently

 

[Dooze]

I think I might be in on Jan as a dog.

He seems to have found his power a lot more recently, after a huge run of fights that mostly went the distance. Israel will be quicker and more diverse, but I'm expecting a bit of a power discrepancy here any time there are exchanges - 25 minutes is a long time to avoid them all.

Similarly, I think the strength discrepancy could play a hand in grappling exchanges. Yeah Israel has great TDD, but I could see Jan working him against the cage to eat up time, knees to the thighs to curtail his movement a bit. He could potentially get takedowns from there too - a lot of the takedowns that Israel has defended has been from wild shots across the cage rather than from in the clinch where we've seen Jan is capable of fighting. If he can get him down, Jans top game is pretty good and getting the bigger heavier man on top of you off (no homo) can be difficult.

I guess one last point worth making is that the smaller cage definitely plays into Jans favour here. If he wants to force exchanges or clinch/grapple with Israel, that smaller cage is going to make it a lot more likely he gets windows to try and do so rather than Israel playing matador for 25 minutes/until he hurts Jan (who's generally renowned for being able to take a shot).

Think it could be a case of us seeing why weight classes are a thing, especially if there's truth what I saw about Israel planning to weigh in light. Most people who move up in weight class do so because the weight cut is getting too much, they usually cut a lot so moving up generally doesn't put them at too much of a detriment. Israel definitely isn't a natural 205er - With Anderson Silva he wasn't either, but his forays there he'd weigh in at 205 rather than undersized. The higher up the weight classes you get, the bigger an issue it is - 10lbs difference in the lower weight classes can be a lot. 15lbs difference between lightweights/welterweights/middleweights can be huge. It's 20lbs between MW and LHW - a huge amount that'd grow even more if Israels kept light in order to easily move back to 185, given Jan will be cutting to 205 and putting that back on for fight night.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I do think Jan could TKO Izzy but this is dependent upon forcing clinch situations during the first three rounds and banking them. If Izzy knows he is down three rounds he is going to engage Jan at which point Jan could land a big shot. Yoel nearly was able to force Izzy into this kind of situation but the leg kicks during the third round immobilized Yoel who then proceeded to just get picked apart for the last three rounds of their fight.



To be clear, I don't believe Izzy is willing to just brawl with his opponents, it was only Kelvin who as you said he had a very significant size and reach advantage over. The problem though with that was Kelvin ended up hurting him and tied on the judges scorecards going into the 5th round.

He learned from his mistakes against Kelvin and when Whitaker would rush in due to the significant reach disadvantage he was far more patient and defensive; before knocking down Whittaker and ultimately finishing him. My problem with how he fought Whittaker as it relates to Jan is if he allows Jan to get off the kinds of shots Whittaker did in close quarters he is going to be grounded with the same left hook that finished Rockhold and Reyes; and ironically Alex Pereirra knocked him out with during his kickboxing days. Whittaker did land some shots on Izzy that a more powerful opponent may have knocked him out with; though to land those shots he had to take risks that ultimately got him finished.

I do think Jan is going to be able to force those exchanges if he is able to tie Izzy up on the fence during the first three rounds and bank them with relatively low output from both men; with Jan winning due to control. Izzy won't have any other option but to engage Jan if he believes he is down on the judges scorecards.

IF that does play out like you said, it will be a big IF for Izzy to force exchanges if he thinks he is down 3 rounds. ( I have both guys in diff parlays so really, I'm just wanting a finish ). I have rarely seen an mma fighter down 3 rounds and start slugging in the 4th and 5th to force a KO win. Has it happened? Yes. Does it happen often? No. Jan does have a big fuckin head though and Izzy might not have enough for a 1 KO shot on him. Maybe leaning Jan via dead man's rope.

 

[Sono07]

Crazy pace for the weigh ins, all but 2 fighters done weighing in under 30 mintutes. Askarov and Nzechukwu are the only 2 yet to make weight.

Edit* Nzechukwu on weight and Askarov 1lb over at 127

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Yan a different level of bjj than sandhagen? I’d highly disagree

I would say sterling is on a different level of grappling than yan. I dont think that’s a stretch.

I’d like to know which fights you’re referencing that show yan has mid tier bjj

Sterling 100% has better grappling than Yan.

But his problem is going to be getting it to the ground.

We've never seen Sterling in a 5 round fight, and in the 3rd round of the Munhoz fight he was visibly fatigued. That fight he attempted way less TDs then he's going to have to attempt in this fight.

The improvement between his first fight with Magomed Magomedov and his second he made drastic improvements to his ground game.

Is Magomed on Sterling's level? Nope. But those fights were years ago, and if he improved so drastically in between those two fights, it's not a stretch to say he's only further improved his grappling since then.

I was on Aljo until last night. I haven't cashed out of my bet yet. But the more I think about it, the more I see Aljo pushing Yan up against the cage, failing his TD attempts, and getting punished in the process for it, and finished in the championship rounds.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Fanduel has an up to $50 limit bet on Cruz by points or KO at boosted +150 and I am all over that there.

Askarov 1 pound over. And declined the extra hour to try and drain it off. So often lately guys that weigh in over but don't kill themselves for that last pound or two end up fighting well

Also Izzy weighed in at 200.5. So not super light 193 like he had mentioned earlier in the week.

 

[Sono07]

Good chunk stuck out here

$25 sterling -106
$20 Rakic -157
$60 Cruz +110
$25 Askarov -143 (put this one is as didn't have much of a lean but Askarov missed weight by 2 pounds and a 2-3 pound weigh miss just always seem to be giving the guy an extra bit of juice for the fight lately)
$10 free bet parlay on all the above plus Nunes -1000 because fuck all ya'll saying it's a dumb adder, it's adding 11 bucks to this thing. +1156

And there is no universe that I somehow get all four of those picks right, and Nunes also breaks a toe or kicks a grounded opponent for a DQ

If you are really thirsty to pay juice on Nunes why not play her -5 1/2 at -700? Is there a universe where Anderson makes this close even if Nunes breaks a few toes?

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I just added 50 more to Jan sub +900.

I think that line is so off(should be +450).

Jan isn't some KO artist, before his last few fights, he had one or two KOs in his last like 20(or something a long those lines).

He's a long time black belt that has size on Izzy, I'd say it's more likely he uses his superior grappling to get a sub as opposed to KOing an elusive kickboxer.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

I just added 50 more to Jan sub +900.

I think that's so off.

Jan isn't some KO artist, before his last few fights, he had one or two KOs in his last like 20(or something a long those lines).

He's a long time black belt that has size on Izzy, I'd say it's more likely he uses his superior grappling to get a sub as opposed to KOing an elusive kickboxer.

Jan's clearest path to victory is by sub. He's a black belt who will have like 25 pounds on Izzy at fight time. These guys saying Jan is gonna outstrike or KO Izzy are way off. Jan might win a round or 2 if he just grinds him against the fence.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Fanduel has an up to $50 limit bet on Cruz by points or KO at boosted +150 and I am all over that there.

Askarov 1 pound over. And declined the extra hour to try and drain it off. So often lately guys that weigh in over but don't kill themselves for that last pound or two end up fighting well

Also Izzy weighed in at 200.5. So not super light 193 like he had mentioned earlier in the week.

Last week when Grisshin missed weight by 5lbs I thought the judges must have taken that into account when scoring the 3rd round of his fight vs Jacoby. It was 1-1 going into the 3rd and it looked to me like Grisshin edged out the 3rd but all the judges gave it to Jacoby. I'm thinking they punished him for the big weight miss (as they should, might be an unwritten rule amongst judges and 5 lbs is a lot) but I've got Askarov by decision so hopefully his weight miss doesnt fuck me.

 

[Danis_champ]

Is it even worth adding Megan to a 4 man parlay with Casey / Jan / Dober?

$100 pays 13k for those 4

better donate to a dog shelter, you have 0,1% chance to win

 

[Oblivian]

Man, 15 fights. This is going to be a long one. Strongest picks for me are Benavidez, Cruz, Santos, and Bontorin. Fairly confident in Islam, Brady, Cruz/Medic ITD, Jan/Izzy ITD, Nunes/Anderson ITD, and Ulberg/Kennedy ITD. I also like Elliott and Song, but not very confident in those.

 

[loller90278]

a bit of confirmation bias from myself but joe looked really old to me at the weigh ins. I like Askarov a lot in this. I think it's very likely he'll clip him with a shot that normally joe could eat in the past that will sting him, and then joe will get finished.

Izzy by KO at EV also looks pretty good to me. I think he'll show that speed and precision is a better PTV than strength and weight.

 

[ballsackarino]

a bit of confirmation bias from myself but joe looked really old to me at the weigh ins. I like Askarov a lot in this. I think it's very likely he'll clip him with a shot that normally joe could eat in the past that will sting him, and then joe will get finished.

Askarov looked pretty damn bad at the weigh ins

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Last week when Grisshin missed weight by 5lbs I thought the judges must have taken that into account when scoring the 3rd round of his fight vs Jacoby. It was 1-1 going into the 3rd and it looked to me like Grisshin edged out the 3rd but all the judges gave it to Jacoby. I'm thinking they punished him for the big weight miss (as they should, might be an unwritten rule amongst judges and 5 lbs is a lot) but I've got Askarov by decision so hopefully his weight miss doesnt fuck me.

I think you're probably confusing intent with simple ineptitude. It's a more likely scenario than thinking judges are systematically out to punish fighters for missing weight, I don't think they really care.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Man, 15 fights. This is going to be a long one. Strongest picks for me are Benavidez, Cruz, Santos, and Bontorin. Fairly confident in Islam, Brady, Cruz/Medic ITD, Jan/Izzy ITD, Nunes/Anderson ITD, and Ulberg/Kennedy ITD. I also like Elliott and Song, but not very confident in those.

my 2c is that if Megan can go the distance with Nunes then that is a black mark on the lioness' legacy.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I just added 50 more to Jan sub +900.
I think that line is so off(should be +450).

I really don't see Jan subbing Izzy. I love rooting for the underdog so I would love to see Jan win by any means but I think his best shot at winning is finding Izzys chin or GnP.

 

[Jordan3399]

You know I said the same thing earlier and someone else said Jan wouldn't be able to catch and hold Izzy in place. Yeah, ok........



Anyways, I think there's a likelihood Ulberg loses this weekend. Why isnt this fight even odds? Ulberg has defensive lapses and tall man defense and hes unproven. Am I missing something? Nzechukwu should be able to jab to a win here no problem

Because one guy is a very legit kickboxer and the other got boxed up by Paul Craig?

Ulbergs gonna batter him, the UFC gave Eugene Bareman a list of opponents for Ulberg and let him pick out the easiest guy for his debut to make him look good and build hype lol

 

[Sono07]

Couple of thoughts after watching the weigh ins and face offs. I don't think any of the title fights go the distance. I was expecting Izzy to look alot smaller next to Jan. Personally I hope Jan wins but I have a feeling this looks alot like Santos/Jan or Izzy/Whittaker. As far as the grappling goes I don't think Jan has a significant size or cardio advantage to press here. Jan will be looking for the big moments and chasing Izzy around soundly getting out pointed in transitions. I think Stylebender KOs him before the 4th.

Anderson looking like a deer in the headlights and Nunes looking like Hannibal Lecter. With Spencer she at least thought her ground game would help. What is Anderson's gameplan here? Trade right hands with Nunes? I'm guessing plan B involves crying in the shower after. With Jame Krause in her corner you know he won't be throwing in the towel. Hopefully he at least uses it to help clean her up afterwards I don't think this will be pretty. Nunes by KO whenever she feels like it.

Yan vs Aljo is going to be a good one. Seems like these guys have been going back and forth for a while. Hard to bet against Aljo as strong as he has looked. I won't say I think Yan has better bjj than Sandhagen but I do think Petr has a strength advantage that Cory didnt. I think Aljo fights a hard few rounds before being overwhelmed by the more fundamental striker. Yan KO r3/r4
Champ-champ and new, and still, and still

 

[Card]

Askar Askarov (127)* vs. Joseph Benavidez (125.5)

* Askarov missed weight by one pound and was fined 20 percent of his purse