UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

Sono07 said:
That's a bit of a short sell. Omar is a legitimate boxer and bjj black belt training under Henri Hooft. His kicking game is nothing special but he is a talented striker. Solid footwork, good use of angles, nice high guard, fast snapping shots with good retraction. He likes to work from boxing range to pressure opponents. He will also use great hook counters to discourage his opponents from doing the same.
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I think he's very overrated, he loads up and telegraphs constantly, his footwork is not very good, on the backfoot he can't throw on the move so if Shane pressures well he's going to struggle cause he's going to keep having to try and plant to return meaningful shots which he'll no doubt telegraph. Going forward he doesn't cut guys off and he looked lost vs Giga doing so. Not a lot of feints or anything highly technical offensively, he just blasts off strikes. The pinnacle of his defence is pulling his head back on the center line and a high guard, that's about as basic as you can get and extremely easy to exploit if you throw in combo against it. Cause you can either punch around the guard easily or catch them as they're leaning back off balance with nowhere to go.

Also he's only a BJJ purple belt and lacks much offensive wrestling. Don't see the grappling being relevant here though.

I bet Omar against Benitez cause no way Benitez should be at 155 and Omar looked big there. Now he's forcing himself down to 145 and had one mediocre performance and looks a lot lighter anyway. Not convinced Shane can overcome the size/power difference but stylistically as a pressure fighter that will throw volume combinations he could give Morales issues.
 
Jordan3399 said:
I think he's very overrated, he loads up and telegraphs constantly, his footwork is not very good, on the backfoot he can't throw on the move so if Shane pressures well he's going to struggle cause he's going to keep having to try and plant to return meaningful shots which he'll no doubt telegraph. Going forward he doesn't cut guys off and he looked lost vs Giga doing so. Not a lot of feints or anything highly technical offensively, he just blasts off strikes. The pinnacle of his defence is pulling his head back on the center line and a high guard, that's about as basic as you can get and extremely easy to exploit if you throw in combo against it. Cause you can either punch around the guard easily or catch them as they're leaning back off balance with nowhere to go.

Also he's only a BJJ purple belt and lacks much offensive wrestling. Don't see the grappling being relevant here though.

I bet Omar against Benitez cause no way Benitez should be at 155 and Omar looked big there. Now he's forcing himself down to 145 and had one mediocre performance and looks a lot lighter anyway. Not convinced Shane can overcome the size/power difference but stylistically as a pressure fighter that will throw volume combinations he could give Morales issues.
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Omar is a black belt, here is the ceremony where he earned it. We will have to agree to disagree about his boxing, but any questions should be answered soon.
 
Sono07 said:
Omar is a black belt, here is the ceremony where he earned it. We will have to agree to disagree about his boxing, but any questions should be answered soon.
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That's not a BJJ belt. He's a BJJ purple belt and a 'third degree black belt in SLAM' (hence the hashtags). It means next to nothing, it's some random gym in Venezuela's own MMA system.
 
Jordan3399 said:
That's not a BJJ belt. He's a BJJ purple belt and a 'third degree black belt in SLAM' (hence the hashtags). It means next to nothing, it's some random gym in Venezuela's own MMA system.
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Good catch, my mistake. I still give him a small grappling edge here, I just don't see anything impressive in Youngs game to me.
 
I just hedged £400 on Stipe outright for £840 return and £400 on Francis KO/TKO for £900 return. Thoughts?

Definitely leaning Francis by KO and have £150 of other bets, most of which depend on it. So Stipe winning doesn't necessarily mean I'll break even.

If Francis wins by decision, or sub (strikes), or a crazy guillotine or kimura, or DQ, I'll cry. I already lost money because of Aljo's bullshit.
 
Jordan3399 said:
That's not a BJJ belt. He's a BJJ purple belt and a 'third degree black belt in SLAM' (hence the hashtags). It means next to nothing, it's some random gym in Venezuela's own MMA system.
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I almost forgot about that slam black belt lol

I’ve done a lot of tape on morales and I would not back him at these prices. I would agree with you about his striking overall it’s nothing special. Young isn’t very good either but he’s good enough to make this a close fight if his chin holds up
 
Diamond Dallas Poirier said:
I just hedged £400 on Stipe outright for £840 return and £400 on Francis KO/TKO for £900 return. Thoughts?

Definitely leaning Francis by KO and have £150 of other bets, most of which depend on it. So Stipe winning doesn't necessarily mean I'll break even.

If Francis wins by decision, or sub (strikes), or a crazy guillotine or kimura, or DQ, I'll cry. I already lost money because of Aljo's bullshit.
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Value any MMA fan's input on this, please. If you have thoughts then post. Only people I've spoken to about it are my casual friends who don't understand the sport.
 
A few more thoughts on the Woodley situation. According to him the last stoppage loss was due to cartilage separating from his ribs. He says it required months to heal and I doubt he was able to train during the recovery.

That fight was only six months ago. Either he quit his last fight and he likely does it again. Or he really did get injured and will probably be fighting in the worst shape of his life here.
 
arrelione said:
Sup guys. What are the most popular bets for this event? Thanks
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Can't speak for the rest of the thread but I like Francis as a slight favorite. O'Malley should win. Luque is better than this version of Woodley but Tyron still has crazy power and people are sleeping on him so I like a punt at Tyron by KO.
 
Diamond Dallas Poirier said:
Value any MMA fan's input on this, please. If you have thoughts then post. Only people I've spoken to about it are my casual friends who don't understand the sport.
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So basically you make no money either way? Terrible way to bet a fight, you gotta commit to the outcome you actually see value on and roll with it.
 
Diamond Dallas Poirier said:
Value any MMA fan's input on this, please. If you have thoughts then post. Only people I've spoken to about it are my casual friends who don't understand the sport.
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If you're high on O'malley parlay him with whoever you like in the main event(or any other line you really like). If Sean wins you can hedge the main event to protect your stake.
 
Diamond Dallas Poirier said:
Value any MMA fan's input on this, please. If you have thoughts then post. Only people I've spoken to about it are my casual friends who don't understand the sport.
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Ballpark, you've basically bet NOT Ngannou by sub/DQ at around -800 or so (that's not exact at all, but I'm lazy and not gonna do the math).

I really don't like bets like this in general, and especially here. It would be one thing if Ngannou had never shown even an inkling of knowing what a sub attempt was. But not only has he attempted one, he got it. He's strong as an ox, and showed that he can damn near rip someone's arm off with the "big man sub" (kimura). In addition, you have the risk of a DQ. Seems arbitrary but we've seen 2 fights lately end with illegal strikes (Aljo/Yan and Leon/Belal).

Risking a bunch to win a little...nah. Even if most likely you win (and yeah, you should) I don't like the play.
 
Dq would be a win either way, a small one but a win
 
rille31 said:
Dq would be a win either way, a small one but a win
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He bet Francis by KO/TKO right? If Frances won by DQ, he loses both bets doesn't he?
 
mkess101 said:
Ballpark, you've basically bet NOT Ngannou by sub/DQ at around -800 or so (that's not exact at all, but I'm lazy and not gonna do the math).

I really don't like bets like this in general, and especially here. It would be one thing if Ngannou had never shown even an inkling of knowing what a sub attempt was. But not only has he attempted one, he got it. He's strong as an ox, and showed that he can damn near rip someone's arm off with the "big man sub" (kimura). In addition, you have the risk of a DQ. Seems arbitrary but we've seen 2 fights lately end with illegal strikes (Aljo/Yan and Leon/Belal).

Risking a bunch to win a little...nah. Even if most likely you win (and yeah, you should) I don't like the play.
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Ngannou by sub or DQ (or decision) has to happen more than 5% of the time for me to lose money. 5% is large enough that I like the bet.

I dunno how many DQ's and UFC fights there have been, but 1 in 1000 seems right to me, equating to a negligible 0.1%. Feels more likely than that right now because of recent events.

No matter how much I try I just can't envision Francis winning a decision. If he's outstriking Stipe then he's knocking him out. Stipe is the better boxer and wrestler and grappler, so if Francis fails early, then he fails, period. I dunno how to cap the outcome of a Francis decision as a percentage, but it's obviously minor.

Francis by sub is the scariest possibility. Not only could he get, as you put it, a big man sub, but he could also win by submission via strikes. But does that happen as much as 4-5% of the time? Consider the fact that Francis only wins slightly over 50% of the time according to the odds. Thus, I think the number's too high. It can happen, but KO/TKO is overwhelmingly his most likely finish. Stipe has been rocked and put to sleep many times before but has never tapped; Overeem nearly put him out; and Stipe doesn't seem the type to tap to strikes.
 
Diamond Dallas Poirier said:
Ngannou by sub or DQ (or decision) has to happen more than 5% of the time for me to lose money. 5% is large enough that I like the bet.

I dunno how many DQ's and UFC fights there have been, but 1 in 1000 seems right to me, equating to a negligible 0.1%. Feels more likely that it is right now because of recent events.

No matter how much I try I just can't envision Francis winning a decision. If he's outstriking Stipe then he's knocking him out. Stipe is the better boxer and wrestler and grappler, so if Francis fails early, then he fails, period. I dunno how to cap the outcome of a Francis decision as a percentage, but it's obviously minor.

Francis by sub is the scariest possibility. Not only could he get, as you put it, a big man sub, but he could also win by submission via strikes. But does that happen as much as 4-5% of the time? Consider the fact that Francis only wins slightly over 50% of the time according to the odds. Thus, I think the number's too high. It can happen, but KO/TKO is overwhelmingly his most likely finish. Stipe has been rocked and put to sleep many times before but has never tapped; Overeem nearly put him out; and Stipe doesn't seem the type to tap to strikes.
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Yeah I'm generally just not inclined to like bets that risk a lot to win a little. I could nitpick your implied odds I guess, but you're likely somewhere in the realm of realistic. Going purely by the math and taking out completely the psychology of betting, the play may be fine. If you have the mindset to lose 800 with the potential max win being 100, that's cool and you should trust your capping. I never have thought that way. I know myself, and a big loss would hurt SO much more than a small win that I just wouldn't make a play like that even if there was a slight edge in doing it. But some people are just more wired to do it. They can shrug off a big loss if that happens and justify the play and move on.
 
When I first looked at this card I wasn't that into it and now I've got my whole bankroll spread out over a lot of fights lol.... let's goooo
 
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