UFC 263: ISRAEL ADESANYA vs MARVIN VETTORI - Official discussion

[Monster Meat]

Evolev round 3 or dec -143

 

[HockeyBjj]

Wow that line on fluffy Jake Collier flew. I had 25 bucks on him +220 on June 3rd. He's down to +142 when I went to add him to a little 5 dollar parley today

 

[Barkus]

I’m asking around to see if anyone knows the answer…Greatly appreciate it if anyone knows..

I was watching a YouTube stream and he had this live stat screen of significant strikes, takedowns and total strikes. Do you know where I can find that? I’ve been searching everywhere but can’t find it. I’d like to watch the fights while looking at the stat screen at the same time to get a better idea who’s up and whatnot?? I don’t know if I have to pay it to view that stat screen or is it free??

It was probably ufcstats.com.

 

[yellowbean]

Anyone has any thoughts？

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

One tip that might be helpful:if you're on bet365 and wanna bet Adesanya ML it is 1,36, go and look at method of victory double chance-Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ or decision is 1,50.So if you're pretty sure as I am that Izzy won't submit him you'll get enchanced price basically for his ML

You also lose your money if it's a draw (instead of a push if you are on Izzy ML).

Not saying is not worth it, but I guess is important to know exactly the differences in every possible scenario.

 

[Bakayoko]

You also lose your money if it's a draw (instead of a push if you are on Izzy ML).

Not saying is not worth it, but I guess is important to know exactly the differences in every possible scenario.

Yeah,didn't even think that through,thanks.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

View attachment 860021
Anyone has any thoughts？

felipe might kill ur parlay in a split decision

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Alexis Davis via decision over Mazo paid off big time for me last time out, going with her again here vs Kianzad at a +300 decision. I'd suggest others jump on that value too.

 

[mkess101]

View attachment 860021
Anyone has any thoughts？

I'm wary of that o2.5 for Fig/Moreno. And keep in mind this is PURELY my gut plus the perception I have of rematches of fights that were epic and violent and went the distance.

Both guys are durable as hell so maybe I'm way off. But man it really seems like so often after a drawn out war between two guys, the rematch ends much more quickly. Maybe that's a misconception on my part. I'm trying to think of specific examples...Shogun/Hendo from a way back. Jones/Gus. Jones/DC. IDK...take it for what it's worth.

 

[Thesnake101]

View attachment 860021
Anyone has any thoughts？

Only guy that could screw you over is Belal imo, since I can't remember him ever fighting a strong grappler since coming over to the UFC. Aside from Luque, I guess, but I doubt Demian will crack him with a left hook.

Hill could get caught in something too. Overall seems like a pretty solid parlay. Wish you the worst of luck since I'm going to put cash on Maia tomorrow tho.

 

[DabanggData]

UFC 263

Props to consider:

Decision:
Pannie Kianzad -135
M Evloev -110
Belal Muhammad +105
Calderwood +110
Adesanya +140
Carlos Felipe +150
Fares Ziam +210
Steven Peterson +210

Jamahal Hill KO -125
Leon Edwards KO +100
Figueiredo KO +165

Dober/Riddell Goes To Dec -150

Matt Frevola inside distance +115

 

[yellowbean]

felipe might kill ur parlay in a split decision

yeah that's possible if he being lazy and doesn't throw much , but from what i see , he has a good volume and his power and speed is a problem for collier

 

[yellowbean]

I'm wary of that o2.5 for Fig/Moreno. And keep in mind this is PURELY my gut plus the perception I have of rematches of fights that were epic and violent and went the distance.

Both guys are durable as hell so maybe I'm way off. But man it really seems like so often after a drawn out war between two guys, the rematch ends much more quickly. Maybe that's a misconception on my part. I'm trying to think of specific examples...Shogun/Hendo from a way back. Jones/Gus. Jones/DC. IDK...take it for what it's worth.

I have the same worry, too.but I It's more difficult for me to pick a winner in this fight.so I just pick OVER 2.5

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

yeah that's possible if he being lazy and doesn't throw much , but from what i see , he has a good volume and his power and speed is a problem for collier

His power actually hasn't really translated much in the ufc, and collier might outstrike him tbh. GL.

 

[yellowbean]

Only guy that could screw you over is Belal imo, since I can't remember him ever fighting a strong grappler since coming over to the UFC. Aside from Luque, I guess, but I doubt Demian will crack him with a left hook.

Hill could get caught in something too. Overall seems like a pretty solid parlay. Wish you the worst of luck since I'm going to put cash on Maia tomorrow tho.

maia is good but too old,belal has solid wrestling i think It's enough to stop or survive maia's take down in the first round and then maia is done .
I will take another look at hill .

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Only guy that could screw you over is Belal imo, since I can't remember him ever fighting a strong grappler since coming over to the UFC. Aside from Luque, I guess, but I doubt Demian will crack him with a left hook.

Hill could get caught in something too. Overall seems like a pretty solid parlay. Wish you the worst of luck since I'm going to put cash on Maia tomorrow tho.

Belal seems to have only fought strikers, and got taken down by Takashi Sato.

Maia by sub is something silly like +400, might be worth the bet.

 

[Thesnake101]

maia is good but too old,belal has solid wrestling i think It's enough to stop or survive maia's take down in the first round and then maia is done .
I will take another look at hill .

Yeah, age and cardio are definitely a factor for Maia, still, I think Belal is in that Rocco Martin tier of fighters that even a diminished Maia should beat.

 

[PuertoRican]

Along with the Figueiredo ITD that was set at +325, BAS also just released another prop line in our favor: Figueiredo submission +1200

3 of his last 4 wins were via submission.

5dimes opened the line at +945, and it's now +700, while we are still getting +1200.

@mkess101

 

[yellowbean]

Only guy that could screw you over is Belal imo, since I can't remember him ever fighting a strong grappler since coming over to the UFC. Aside from Luque, I guess, but I doubt Demian will crack him with a left hook.

Hill could get caught in something too. Overall seems like a pretty solid parlay. Wish you the worst of luck since I'm going to put cash on Maia tomorrow tho.

damn..hill was taken down 6 times out of 9
in stosic fight...he got up quickly but no denying his TDD is bad..

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Only going to speak about the main event in great detail. Obvious value on Moreno and Vettori moneyline, but I don’t bet on “value”.

I am really like Israel to finish this fight in the later rounds, particularly the 5th round. The way I see this fight going, Marvin will get takedowns but I’m not too sure how successful he will be on the ground. The fact that Marvin is probably about the same level wrestler as Jan is on a technical level and only weighs about 10-15 pounds less has me cautious about laying chalk on Izzy, but I believe that Marvins gameplan will come to a fault.

Marvin is really not that diverse on the feet compared to the possibly most diverse striker in the UFC and for sure in the MW division. Marvins got a straight that he primarily uses almost as a jab pretty much, it’s his main strike and with a 6 inch reach disadvantage + having to reach extra when he is in southpaw vs. Izzy in Orthodox, Marvin is not going to have much success on the feet.

I was really not impressed with Marvin in the fight vs Kevin Holland, but realistically he could do that against Izzy and eek out a win. I don’t believe that will happen though as I’m on Izzy 5th round finish for about a unit or so. Also, yeah Izzy looked bad against Jan and Yoel, but they’ve got considerably more power then Marvin who I consider somewhat pillowfisted for MW.

fuck this dead forum

1U Israel adesanya via 5th round finish