UFC 263: ISRAEL ADESANYA vs MARVIN VETTORI - Official discussion

If anyone based in UK wants to bet Evloev, I got him for -192 on Smarkets.
 
I'm loving my ESPN+ subscription, how about you guys? Great price they almost give it away. That and the amount of content is something you really really won't get any else.

Darn did all you geezers call it an early night already. I thought we were here to talk about some good scraps. Ah you party poopers maybe I'll catch ya real soon :p
 
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GigaOuts said:
You are the wolf, don't ask the sheep. I am tailing your parlay if you don't mind.
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Help yourself bro.And the only concern is Hill's TDD,he should win but just in case I take him out of the parlay.
 
yellowbean said:
Help yourself bro.And the only concern is Hill's TDD,he should win but just in case I take him out of the parlay.
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Hill's TDD is a concern, and moreso because even though Craig's offensive wrestling isn't good, he has the luxury of not caring if he fails a TD and just pulls guard or causes a scramble. Craig doesn't need top position, he just needs to get Hill to the ground. Maybe Hill is smart enough and has the skills to disengage and stand up and back away if he ends up on top...but IDK.
 
Help a brother out.... im withdrawing my BR from betanysports. It's been a month and I'm annoyed to having to search 8 locations to find 1/3 of the props they had before. Any reliable, US friendly sites that offer more props like "total submissions for event, fight ends inside" and such. BAS won't even let me parlay props.. ..ughhhh
 
mkess101 said:
What? Moreno had a ton of great moments in that fight. Hurt Fig, outgrappled him for long stretches, etc. That fight was absolutely close as hell. I remember that night that I thought Fig won by the slimmest of margins, haven't rewatched since.
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Yeah,I have rewatched it twice,it was a lot closer then I remembered.But I'm still high on Figgy.Moreno did nothing with the takedowns and aldo he was throwing good combos,Figgy still did more damage overall through the rounds.His going to have to evade more and hit harder to win this,pretty hard considering Figgy wasn't 100% healthy before the fight and the first match wasn't that long ago to make a technical improvement.Just some random not too analitical thoughts:
Vettori might win,but people are putting too much on how Izzy looked against Jan.It's a completely different fight.Vettori doesn't have the reach or the jab prior to the takedowns.Izzy is going to pick him apart slowly,question is when the takedown comes how will Izzy react,but I think he can survive without taking as much damage as he's going to deliver on the feet.
Edwards wins 9 out of 10 against Diaz but I ain't going to risk it,just took the over 2,5 rounds,Edwards is careful and methodical he ain't gonna rush and if Nate doesn't get tottally cut and bleeding in the first round and a half it go through easily.
Wouldn't touch Hill-Craig,someone said that Craig doesn't have Stosic's takedowns and that's true,but Stosic doesn't have a clue what to do once he get's someone down and Craig will threat with the submissions all the time if it gets to the ground.
 
Would need to see Craig decisively beat explosive striker before betting him here.
 
Bakayoko said:
Yeah,I have rewatched it twice,it was a lot closer then I remembered.But I'm still high on Figgy.Moreno did nothing with the takedowns and aldo he was throwing good combos,Figgy still did more damage overall through the rounds.His going to have to evade more and hit harder to win this,pretty hard considering Figgy wasn't 100% healthy before the fight and the first match wasn't that long ago to make a technical improvement.Just some random not too analitical thoughts:
Vettori might win,but people are putting too much on how Izzy looked against Jan.It's a completely different fight.Vettori doesn't have the reach or the jab prior to the takedowns.Izzy is going to pick him apart slowly,question is when the takedown comes how will Izzy react,but I think he can survive without taking as much damage as he's going to deliver on the feet.
Edwards wins 9 out of 10 against Diaz but I ain't going to risk it,just took the over 2,5 rounds,Edwards is careful and methodical he ain't gonna rush and if Nate doesn't get tottally cut and bleeding in the first round and a half it go through easily.
Wouldn't touch Hill-Craig,someone said that Craig doesn't have Stosic's takedowns and that's true,but Stosic doesn't have a clue what to do once he get's someone down and Craig will threat with the submissions all the time if it gets to the ground.
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I agree aside from thinking Fig has value. Yes, I'm picking him to win. And his odds have dropped closer to playable for me but still not good enough yet.
 
sonhow said:
Would need to see Craig decisively beat explosive striker before betting him here.
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If you're betting Craig, you're just betting he gets Hill down before he eats a bunch of hard shots in a combo. Simplistic but that's really how I see it. U1.5 at +100 might be the better option than picking a side...
 
I think Edwards is gonna beat the brakes off Nate most likely but...it's MMA and weird things happen. Cuts (and yeah haha Nate is the one with paper skin, not Leon). Freak injuries, illegal blows the ref misses, etc etc.

Nate KO/TKO is +1600. And it's 5 rounds for something bizarre to happen and if nothing else Nate has cardio and will keep fighting. IDK...for a longshot flyer I've seen way worse bets.
 
mkess101 said:
If you're betting Craig, you're just betting he gets Hill down before he eats a bunch of hard shots in a combo. Simplistic but that's really how I see it. U1.5 at +100 might be the better option than picking a side...
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He got Shogun's dead tired corpse down but aside from that his offensive wrestling has always been him ending up on his back and opponent either playing the game or not.
U1.5 might be the way but then again maybe this becomes a butt drop contest for Craig and Hill wont engage- resulting in 15 minutes of same thing over and over again.

mkess101 said:
I think Edwards is gonna beat the brakes off Nate most likely but...it's MMA and weird things happen. Cuts (and yeah haha Nate is the one with paper skin, not Leon). Freak injuries, illegal blows the ref misses, etc etc.

Nate KO/TKO is +1600. And it's 5 rounds for something bizarre to happen and if nothing else Nate has cardio and will keep fighting. IDK...for a longshot flyer I've seen way worse bets.
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Leon did get dropped by Barbarena. Maybe Nate catches him off guard or something.
 
sonhow said:
He got Shogun's dead tired corpse down but aside from that his offensive wrestling has always been him ending up on his back and opponent either playing the game or not.
U1.5 might be the way but then again maybe this becomes a butt drop contest for Craig and Hill wont engage- resulting in 15 minutes of same thing over and over again.



Leon did get dropped by Barbarena. Maybe Nate catches him off guard or something.
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Yeah when I say Craig gets Hill down I don't even necessarily mean puts Hill on his back. Just forces him to scramble, etc and can maybe find his opportunity there.
 
mkess101 said:
I agree aside from thinking Fig has value. Yes, I'm picking him to win. And his odds have dropped closer to playable for me but still not good enough yet.
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That's fair,seems I'm against the majority who see value in Moreno,I just see him not having enough for a locked down and ready Fig,but we'll see
 
Craig actually has some really good timing on his level changes but then its like he hits a wall or something.
 
Wagner Azevedo said:
Over 1.5 rounds on Edwards vs Diaz @ -245 (1.41) is honestly a steal.
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Over 3.5 @ -125 seems parlay material. Leon might play it safe considering a loss here would set him back from a title shot. I genuinely don't think Leon is going to attempt to do what masvidal did.
 
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