UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

Im sure its an unpopular opinion, but i feel like Lewis might be able to KO/TKO Gane, or Gane will eventually KO/TKO Lewis,

Im also quite keen on Penne by sub/decision.
 
joenewbie said:
I used to like Karolina Kowalkiewicz and had high hopes for her but dang she has been on a downward slide. I bet on her (once) against Felice Herrig and that was a nail biter. A loss here and it might be time to retire.
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I think she was retired and is now attempting a comeback. She's taken some brutal beatings.
 
UFC 265 might be a fight card that it would have some underdogs. dont sleep on some of the underdogs.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Gane could definitely get tds and might lock up a leg, but I think he just evades Lewis and mixes in tds to seal rounds like he did against Rozenstruik. Lewis barely has a punchers' chance and I'm not that interested in the props and over/under.
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I don't think Gane is going to waste his energy trying to wrestle with a bigger stronger guy, who can just explode out of bottom position. I think Gane is comfortable to stay at range, and pepper him with strikes until Lewis slows down. This Lewis can KO anyone out of nowhere is kind of a meme. Let's look at his recent fights. He's knocking out grapplers and a plodding Volkov. He landed 7 punches against the ghost of JDS in 7 minutes. Gane should comfortably be able to win it on the feet and eventually find a TKO through attrition. I'm guessing round 3 or 4.
 


Kape at AKA

I feel overall his split loss to Matheus puts him at around a high skill set, Ode is athletic and explosive but has been fighting low tier competition, he is about to be introduced to a new realm.
 
I think Gane is about as big as a lock we can get at HW… That Volkov fight proved that Gane is class, I had Volkov as my dog in that fight and Gane controlled the reach for pretty much the whole 25 minutes against a longer, more experienced striker…

Just a couple fights ago, Lewis was in a competitive ugly HW fight against Latifi where one could argue that Latifi could have won. Also, big cage where Gane has more room to work with.

All in on Gane and there is more then 50% chance that this goes the decision with Gane’s style and Lewis durability
 
The first bet I made was on Gane versus Volkov. $100 to $150. I won't abandon him now.
 
Aldo -115 here seems crazy. Better striker, won't be taken down

I'd cap him -150 or -175. What am I missing here?
 
Aldo dec +140
Torres dec +125
Penne dec +200
Menifield rd 1 ko +225
Gane -5.5 -270
Gane rds 3-5 average price +1000
Gane/Lewis fdngtd -220

If menifield can’t get it done in rd 1 his chances fall dramatically. I’m somewhat tempted to play Herman here at these odds but he has so much mileage and gets hurt in all his fights.

a little concerned gane plays a super safe fight like he did vs rozenstruik and it goes to the cards. Fdngtd is a beast hedge and can also work for gane itd. The point spread covers gane dec and itd. Good way to play this imo

penne dec +200 is great value, although I’d rather have caught her opener

aldo at + money is always good. Munhoz has an iron chin
 
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Already locked in on aldo -130, Chiesa +120, Casey kenney -115.
 
mkess101 said:
I started the circle jerk, blame me if he gets sparked haha.

But when I cap a guy -160ish and fully expect the books to be somewhat in line with that and then he opens +130...well, c'mon.
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Seems like you're banking on Luque looking as useless on the mat as Magny was, Chiesa will lose every second of the fight when it stays standing. That said Chiesa has a good path to victory with plan A but a very small chance with plan B.
 
I"m gonna add yet one more note about Chiesa/Luque (because like Matthew said, I haven't harped on this fight enough LOL):

If the guy Luque beat in his last fight had the name Elizeu Zaleski or Geoff Neal, would he be coming in favored here? But instead he beat the ghost of Tyron Woodley, and that name carries weight as a former dominant champ. But Woodley at that point really was at that Geoff Neal/Li JInglang type level (if that, maybe below that level?). Luque stood and brawled with Woodley for the few minutes that craziness lasted and of course Tyron gassed quickly and got stung and subbed. Good win for Vincente for sure. But seeing that version of Woodley...what top 20 WW would you have any level of confidence he'd beat? I'm looking at the top 20 right now...maybe I'd pick Woodley over the ghost of Lawler who's ranked 19th? Aside from that, I might literally pick everyone else in the top 20 to beat him.
 
svmr_db said:
Seems like you're banking on Luque looking as useless on the mat as Magny was, Chiesa will lose every second of the fight when it stays standing. That said Chiesa has a good path to victory with plan A but a very small chance with plan B.
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Yeah, for sure. Moreover, I think RDA is a better grappler than Luque and Chiesa also absolutely blanketed him for 2 rounds (rd 2 was close), and even when tired had enough to win the grappling in rd 3.

My thing with someone like Chiesa is that he understands what he is. The short time at the beginning of rounds when it's standing, he is very unlikely to engage and lead and leave himself open to be clippped. Not saying it can't happen (of course it can), but Mike's not gonna be looking to land anything significant. Luque loves to push forward and try to force a firefight. Mike will almost surely use that to get ahold of Luque and bully him back against the cage where the chain wrestling starts. And from there I just don't see how Luque stops the bigger, better grappler from having his way.

If Chiesa was a guy who had his skillset but fancied himself something he's not and randomly decided to stand for full rounds with clearly better strikers, no way am I this high on him here. But he's not.

Like Mariano Rivera was as a baseball pitcher. He basically threw one pitch that almost nobody could handle. He perfected that cutter and night in and night out he got guys out with it. He didn't try to throw a 100 mph four seam fastball or mix in big looping curveballs to show he could. He perfected one thing and dared you to beat it. That's how Chiesa fights. (Not a perfect analogy but you get the point).

Usman is a guy that can neutralize that grappling. Maybe Colby too. Possibly Edwards, Chimaev, etc. I'm not saying Mike is the best WW out there, he's not. He's gonna lose at 170 at some point for sure. I just don't think Luque is the guy to stop what Chiesa does though. I could be wrong.
 
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