UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
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I don't know...I think I'll throw over 1.5 in a parlay...Masvidal good sub defense,survived against Maia,good chin(the Usman shot was just brutal) and very important - an experienced fighter who would know how to survive if he just wants to survive and at this point he just might go for that if he feels outmatched...Burns chinny,but doubt Mas catches him and also he knows Mas has hands so he could play it safe...I would sprinkle Burns dec rather than his ITD
Russ82
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I threw $10 on Jorge by KO/TKO or Decision +600
Stranger things have happened and he did drop Colby late in that fight. that shot probably knocks Burns out
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Pereira looks like he's on that champ cycle, buddy looks larger than the last go around. Adesanya sees Pereira everywhere he goes like Frank Dux when he's on the bus and sees Chong Li everywhere in that montage . Straight Boogeyman style Izzy probably had to get a housekeeper since the last fight due to being tired of seeing Pereira in his cupboards.
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Not sure I could say Burns is "chinny" after that Khamzat fight honestly...
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Yeah, his supposed lack of durability gets overstated a lot.
Starting the night off with Amorim by sub. If that hits I'll put some dough on Gerald/Pyfer o1.5
Tell me why I am wrong.
Adesanya to win decision, their striking is fairly equal (as is well documented), he is capable of cage wrestling pereira (easily better in clinch against cage wall in the first fight, constantly winning head position), has a clear upside in grappling if it makes it to the floor(once on the floor the round is basically over), and is probably capable of getting it to the floor on some occasions (pereira's TDD to double legs from looked terrible last year, and adesanya was close to getting him over several times in the fight). Adesanya only needs 2 takedowns to win the fight. He will definitely attempt atleast 6 takedowns. Even accidentally said about putting pereira on his back at a press conference, before retracting it and minimising, gameplan is definitely mix in grappling this time.
roughly 10-30% chance pereira KO's him again depending on his success with TD.
Rob font to beat Yanez in a decision, on the basis that Font is capable of volume outboxing yanez and 3 rounds may not be enough for Yanez to KO him. Could see Font being rocked by a left hook, but dont think it either leads to a finish or happens in 2 rounds out of 3. If any grappling occurs it will be initiated by font. Yanez didnt initiate grappling even when losing to costa in r1, or in a close fight with grant. I expect Font to win round 1 and 2, Yanez 3.
Burns to finish Masvidal ITD. Masvidal is older, fatter, clearly worse grappler, and striking i think he will look worse outside of r1. Has not been in good shape, clearly has other business interests, i doubt he is training particularly hard, even his coach described how he has started training properly again in the past 6 months (has had loads of time off), which i imagine is still an exaggeration. Burns to put a pace on him, masvidal to gas, and eventually find a way to get out of the fight. Masvidals PTV is probably only a KO, and if burns if wobbled, he can just fall to guard, and recover. Masvidal has good sub defence (as demonstrated by Maia backpack), but thats only if he doesnt want to be subbed.
Curtis to beat Gastelum ML & sprinkle on r2+3 TKO. Curtis is a bigger better boxer, more active recently, no obvious injuries (gastelum has had multiple even prior to his tooth). This will be a southpaw boxing fight, and i think gastelum may initiate unsuccessful grappling. Backing curtis as an underdog, has KO upside, and i think he wins minutes too. Curtis looked shit against hermansson because hermansson is a rangey kicker, who would aim for takedowns if you came in too hard. Curtis will lose to kickers, but cant see him being outranged by a fridge.
When gastelum gets hit hard in the mouth, his teeth are not gonna feel great, (recent dental surgery), and i think that makes him a little more hesitant. Curtis will philly shell gastelum to a win, but may finish him in r2 or 3.
Adesanya to win decision, their striking is fairly equal (as is well documented), he is capable of cage wrestling pereira (easily better in clinch against cage wall in the first fight, constantly winning head position), has a clear upside in grappling if it makes it to the floor(once on the floor the round is basically over), and is probably capable of getting it to the floor on some occasions (pereira's TDD to double legs from looked terrible last year, and adesanya was close to getting him over several times in the fight). Adesanya only needs 2 takedowns to win the fight. He will definitely attempt atleast 6 takedowns. Even accidentally said about putting pereira on his back at a press conference, before retracting it and minimising, gameplan is definitely mix in grappling this time.
roughly 10-30% chance pereira KO's him again depending on his success with TD.
Rob font to beat Yanez in a decision, on the basis that Font is capable of volume outboxing yanez and 3 rounds may not be enough for Yanez to KO him. Could see Font being rocked by a left hook, but dont think it either leads to a finish or happens in 2 rounds out of 3. If any grappling occurs it will be initiated by font. Yanez didnt initiate grappling even when losing to costa in r1, or in a close fight with grant. I expect Font to win round 1 and 2, Yanez 3.
Burns to finish Masvidal ITD. Masvidal is older, fatter, clearly worse grappler, and striking i think he will look worse outside of r1. Has not been in good shape, clearly has other business interests, i doubt he is training particularly hard, even his coach described how he has started training properly again in the past 6 months (has had loads of time off), which i imagine is still an exaggeration. Burns to put a pace on him, masvidal to gas, and eventually find a way to get out of the fight. Masvidals PTV is probably only a KO, and if burns if wobbled, he can just fall to guard, and recover. Masvidal has good sub defence (as demonstrated by Maia backpack), but thats only if he doesnt want to be subbed.
Curtis to beat Gastelum ML & sprinkle on r2+3 TKO. Curtis is a bigger better boxer, more active recently, no obvious injuries (gastelum has had multiple even prior to his tooth). This will be a southpaw boxing fight, and i think gastelum may initiate unsuccessful grappling. Backing curtis as an underdog, has KO upside, and i think he wins minutes too. Curtis looked shit against hermansson because hermansson is a rangey kicker, who would aim for takedowns if you came in too hard. Curtis will lose to kickers, but cant see him being outranged by a fridge.
When gastelum gets hit hard in the mouth, his teeth are not gonna feel great, (recent dental surgery), and i think that makes him a little more hesitant. Curtis will philly shell gastelum to a win, but may finish him in r2 or 3.
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i think its going to be a trilogy. this has that feel to it. i’ll just leave it at that. If Alex wins so be it, its not my main bet.
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I don't see Izzy shooting at least 6 td. He might threaten with it or go for some at some point, but he's not a wrestler. 6 tds over the course of a 5 round fight is going to be too taxing for him unless he's hitting them with ease.
Also, Alex's striking looked like shit last time and he still won with nothing but his striking. If he remembers what combos are and what jabs can do, he's going to have a big edge, I think. It seemed like the big moment got to him a bit in their last fight.
I wouldn't go too big on Burns. He probably wins, but Mas could be a problem. He can strike well and he's got great grappling. Burns is awesome of course, but if you can survive Maia then you have a good shot at surviving Burns. If Burns can't get tds and this becomes a striking battle, Mas has a good chance of being the one who scores the TKO.
Like what you're saying about Curtis. Only real concern is if he just doesn't do enough and gets outworked. Grappling and the threat of it will be Kelvin's best weapon here. I can't see him not trying. If he stands and trades he's probably just gonna get touched up.
Adesanya had 4 attempts in their last fight, surely he tries more than that? The question is what success he will have with them. But agree re concern with cardio if he has repeated attempts stuffed. Although I'd watched their fights, I hadn't consciously noticed a clear difference in Alex's striking, good point re pressure, will go back and rewatch
Re masvidal Ko risk, he tends to TKO (aside from askren which he will never repeat, and till, which seems flukey but I can't justify why ). Do you not think burns cardio advantage and ridiculous BJJ mostly save him from being finished by TKO? (I accept Ko is a small risk)
Yeah agree on gastelum wrestling upside
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Izzy had 4 attempts but none of it worked until Alex tripped and he got it that way. Alex is just too damn big and strong for Izzy to try and wrestle for 5 rounds. It'll just wear him out. He can't rely on a lucky mistake out of Alex to get his grappling going again. Alex will have done what he can to prepare for the grappling as well. I'm sure a big part of his camp was to prevent him losing rounds badly in the grappling again.
Yeh, have a look at his previous fights. He looked way better. Against Izzy last time all he did was stalk for a bit, but then let Izzy get away because he wasn't throwing in combos or anything. He actually landed a few jabs at one point and they were stunning Izzy and stopping his footwork, but then for some reason he wasn't following them up, and then he stopped doing them altogether after a while. It was a shit performance out of Alex. No wonder it took him almost a full 5 rounds to catch a guy when he was relying on almost nothing but a big single shot.
With Mas, the Till win seems flukey because it came out of nowhere and he wasn't winning up until then. The thing with Burns is that he hasn't fought someone who can be as dangerous as Mas. Burns' striking isn't anything flash, but its functional and explosive. But he was getting struck plenty by Usman and Chimaev. I think the bet is really whether or not you think Mas is really serious anymore. If not and he's let himself go, then Burns will win easily, but if some form of the Mas that grappled with Maia and struck with Nate shows up, then he could be a problem.
I'm more of an ITD guy these days and I'd go those on the first two, but that's me.
I think Izzy is in his own head a lot for this one and is going to want to prove something, while Alex should be a lot more comfortable and be more open with his striking. I think we get a finish. I'd much rather ITD at 1.76 than Izzy DEC at 2.80. I'd prefer just GTD over Izzy DEC as well for .90 or so less.
I'd probably play ITD on Burns/Mas as well. Burns ML isn't worth it and his ITD odds aren't paying that much better than either to finish. I'd rather play for a bit less just in-case Mas shows up.
I have both these fights marked down for 1k each for ITD, but haven't bet yet. Won't bother unless I can't find anything on the WMMA I like enough.
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Masvidal knocking out a weight drained Till and Askren with a bum hip doesn't constitute to Masvidal stopping Burns who had a war with Khamzat, destroyed Neal, beat a very good striker in Thompson. Masvidal is good, but he's fringe top ten at this point and his wins in recent years aren't impressive the more context you apply to them.
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Karl Williams by sub at +760, hmmmmm.
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Lol was that the montage where he sees his reflection and they play that "on my own" song
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Damn sure was LMAO.
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If someone from UFC or even Izzy's camp did a similar montage along with Izzy doing a split overlooking South Beach or downtown would be epic. This is totally a soul searching fight for Adesanya. I'll take a Sherdog shoop montage as an alternative. Ppl on here are slacking with that one as it's ripe for the picking
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Alex had a injury in the last fight that prevented him to grapple in training. If anything I think he'll stuff Izzy attempts even easier this time.
I don't think Izzy is the right play here, but If you want to play Izzy anyways I agree that dec is the best bet. Even so I can see Alex handing the most powerful shots and winning rounds easier than last time.
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Not that it matters much since I don't chime in around these parts but I actually like betting on a fighter with a long losing streak every once in a while. My thought process is usually that the betting market has soured too far in one direction against the fighter and the price too skewed. Problem is in watching the last couple Calvillo fights, the "edge" she once had appears to be gone. She fights like someone who knows her opponents have an advantage over her. She looks afraid to be hit, she's not initiating grappling exchanges etc. Loopy is a pretty physical girl, regardless of how much of an inconsistent fighter she can be with regard to following a path of least resistance to win. I don't see anything Calvillo offers that Loopy can't deal with. It wouldn't surprise me that if she loses here, that Calvillo retires. I forgot which female fighter it was that recently retired that made mention of how while she could have stuck around to fight, she noticed having struggled more with the younger up and coming fighters and being at a strength deficit...
(Actually I remember - it was Roxy). When Calvillo quit on the stool against Lee, it's like you could see it written on her face that she had nothing to offer. She tried against Nunes, but realistically speaking, you could see she had nothing for her either. Loopy may not be a scrappy old vet like Nunes, but she's no pushover. The line may look wide but unless Calvillo is going to rush in a grapple like she used to, I just don't see her having a shot.
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Excellent points. Another thing is that Calvillos problem has always been that while on the ground she is very dangerous, her wrestling and transitions from striking to the groundgame has always sucked. And it has seemed like she has enjoyed the striking aspect a bit too much when she should have been hunting for those TDs.
She does seem to be a popular dog though, its likely also slightly due to Loopy losing to Hill, so people think she sucks now and wants her to lose.
I feel like “revenge” betting is a real thing, even from overall sharps.
