UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley, Boston, August 19

Tebowned said:
I don't have odds on Cody yet but if the odds keep climbing, i'll bet him.



Medium on Austin Hubbard.
He's a grinder with a good chin.
Younger and stronger imo.
Decent sized 155. Kurt fought a lot of his career at 145.

I think he'll look to wrestle but he can hang standing if needed.
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The only thing that worries me about Hubbard is that he should win but he’s also the type of guy to get caught in a Hail Mary submission when he’s winning the fight. He also could get pieced up standing if Holobaugh’s striking looks anything like it did against Knight. In my humble opinion his main focus should be chopping Holobaugh to pieces with his heavy kicks. Sprawl and leg kicks should be his obvious path to victory.
 
what’s stopping me from betting my entire bankroll on Tavares at -270? Seems like free money , maybe I’m not seeing things clearly
 
Also who’s gonna stop me from betting on Ian Garry -500 , hahaha im gonna make easy money saturday
 
StewDogg11 said:
The only thing that worries me about Hubbard is that he should win but he’s also the type of guy to get caught in a Hail Mary submission when he’s winning the fight. He also could get pieced up standing if Holobaugh’s striking looks anything like it did against Knight. In my humble opinion his main focus should be chopping Holobaugh to pieces with his heavy kicks. Sprawl and leg kicks should be his obvious path to victory.
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Does Halobaugh really shoot often? seems more like a boxer mma guy. digs to the body, peppers a stiff jab. i see value in him.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Does Halobaugh really shoot often? seems more like a boxer mma guy. digs to the body, peppers a stiff jab. i see value in him.
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He’s not a good wrestler but does have good jiu jitsu. Hubbard should definitely be able to take him down which is where I could see him getting caught.
 
Blackshear at +187? That's a tempting play, Bautista is good but his 4 fight win streak is overblown and is over weak competition. The 2 weight cuts back to back worry me but he took no damage last fight and has pretty elite grappling. He gives me Aljo vibes tbh.

Also Garry decision at +240 is nice, that was a beautiful head kick on Drod and a great finish but Magny is tough to KO/TKO in 3 rounds and just a year ago Garry was going the distance with Weeks and Green who are pretty much just worse versions of Magny.
 
guesswhoseback said:
He might lose
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Its true, yes. But very unlikely. Brad just needs one good leg kick and Chris bone will snap. Weidman is over 200 pounds, that’s a lot of weight that the bone must withstand. Wall and stalling is his only path to victory.
 
Georges Hefner said:
what’s stopping me from betting my entire bankroll on Tavares at -270? Seems like free money , maybe I’m not seeing things clearly
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Chris could easily grapple fuck him and Tavares isn't really some big ko artist. Most of his wins are by decision.
 
Georges Hefner said:
what’s stopping me from betting my entire bankroll on Tavares at -270? Seems like free money , maybe I’m not seeing things clearly
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Because you could instead parlay Larissa Pacheco, Max Holloway, and Rinya Nakamura; all of whom fight in the next week in squash matches they have no plausible chance of losing and get -200.

I am not advising you, or anyone to do this, but it makes more sense than letting it ride on a 35 year old fighter who has not won a fight in over two years.
 
Blind hit on Sugar Sean. Alja is a smaller guy by at least 4 inches.

I can see a repeat of Moraes fight , but maybe in the later rounds, Sean has that knee in his arsenal. He also isn't a gasser.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Blind hit on Sugar Sean. Alja is a smaller guy by at least 4 inches.

I can see a repeat of Moraes fight , but maybe in the later rounds, Sean has that knee in his arsenal. He also isn't a gasser.
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I have had this weird feeling all week that Sugar catches him with something. My brain says Aljo doesn't fuck around standing and goes to his bread and butter and dominates on the mat. But I just have this feeling I can't shake that Aljo stands for some solid stretches and actually has some success but gets clipped by a straight shot or something and hurt and Sugar finds a finish.

"Gut feelings" isn't a way to bet though and be profitable. So I'm just passing.
 
I will be doing a superdraft since DFS isnt allowed yet, superdraft is the only next ownersbox we have left.
Made Sterling part of my CPT.
Not sure about Zhang yet. Might change a few things around before sat.


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Georges Hefner said:
what’s stopping me from betting my entire bankroll on Tavares at -270? Seems like free money , maybe I’m not seeing things clearly
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I'm heavily invested in Tavaras myself. I have 5U in a Marcus McGhee + Brad Tavares parley. On top of that I have added quite a lot in different ITD props for Tavares. I don't see how anyone can bet Weidman at this stage and how he has looked before.
I'm very confident in Tavares and outside of banana peel type of incident I think he wins this fairly easy... thought the odds would be wider tbh.
 
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UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Because you could instead parlay Larissa Pacheco, Max Holloway, and Rinya Nakamura; all of whom fight in the next week in squash matches they have no plausible chance of losing and get -200.

I am not advising you, or anyone to do this, but it makes more sense than letting it ride on a 35 year old fighter who has not won a fight in over two years.
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At these odds I'm not trusting Nakamura. Dude has barely seen round 2 in his career... his cardio is super suspect.
I remember taping him for his UFC debut and in one of his road to the UFC fights he looked really tired after finishing the guy... and this was after like 3 min of fighting.

Of course I also thinks he smokes Fernie Garcia in round 1 fairly easy, but the odds are way to wide.
 
mkess101 said:
I have had this weird feeling all week that Sugar catches him with something. My brain says Aljo doesn't fuck around standing and goes to his bread and butter and dominates on the mat. But I just have this feeling I can't shake that Aljo stands for some solid stretches and actually has some success but gets clipped by a straight shot or something and hurt and Sugar finds a finish.

"Gut feelings" isn't a way to bet though and be profitable. So I'm just passing.
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Sean was winning rnd 3 on Yan , if it was a 5 rounder there is a slight chance we would have seen a more concrete win by Sean . The odds make the skill gap seem wider than it is.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Sean was winning rnd 3 on Yan , if it was a 5 rounder there is a slight chance we would have seen a more concrete win by Sean . The odds make the skill gap seem wider than it is.
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Sugar is a helluva striker. He's live for a KO anytime it's standing. We'll see if Aljo goes right to his grappling or not.
 
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