UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington, Las Vegas, December 16

[Naught2Sixty]

Insane? No. Unwise? Probably.

I realize I say this while also backing Garbrandt so I might be a hypocrit.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Am I insane for picking Tony because I am not sold on Paddy at all?

Definite dog or pass regardless of if and/or how Paddy wins.

No way in hell would I play Paddy -300 here. If you take away Paddy's name value, the odds on this fight would be closer to evens with his skillset, imo

I haven't been impressed by Paddy and all his wins are against low tier guys besides Gordon which he arguably lost

 

[sonhow]

Anyone doing pbp?

 

[Thesnake101]

Easy night for Shamil. Got him by KO + Ulanbekov by sub in a parlay, think it should hit now considering Durden always finds himself in sub trouble and has lost 3 times like that.

 

[sonhow]

Seems like DC is already affecting the betting lines. He say Shamil is looking bit tired and immediately big drop in live odds. Not my favorite trait of his.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fili murders Almeida.

 

[benebox]

Got Durden next at +150

 

[benebox]

Anyone else think Menifield-Jacoby is a close fight? Menifield has looked good in his last couple fights, and he's +170 now.

I agree, I bet him.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I realize I say this while also backing Garbrandt so I might be a hypocrit.

Garbrandt is a -240 favorite Ferguson is a +240 dog not the same at all

 

[Thesnake101]

Damn, that was close. Hopefully Tagir manages to get the sub now.

 

[sonhow]

Durden's shot is to just brawl and ko him. He is bit outgunnde in skill department

 

[Thesnake101]

Nice! First parlay of the night cashes.

 

[sonhow]

We like Lipski or is Casey just going to take her down?

 

[benebox]

Cody looks good

 

[Danis_champ]

Emmett? Yikes. 38 years old and to me looks like the explosiveness has dropped off significantly. Bryce is a one trick pony but he's good at it and I'm not sure Josh will have much chance to keep Bryce off him. I don't think Emmett has much chance to win rounds at all, because Bryce absolutely will not stand and give distance. He will do what he did to Ige and immediately close and latch on and force grappling. If Emmett wins, it's gonna be because he lands one big, fight-changing shot and finishes. I don't know what the delta will be between Emmett ML and Emmett KO but if he wins it's most likely a KO so waiting for that prop would make sense to me if you want to play Josh.

IDK what the hell to think about Leon/Colby. Leon probably more in his prime and has taken the next step but Colby's style is so tough to deal with because he doesn't slow down, ever.

You wanna take that back?

Easiest money ever on Emmett.

 

[mkess101]

You wanna take that back?

Easiest money ever on Emmett.

I mean, look at my follow up. I literally say if you're gonna play Emmett, play his KO line and I called the fight spot on LOL. He landed exactly what I said, one huge shot.

I actually have a buddy that called me today asking for picks. I was going down the card and when we got to the Emmett/Bryce fight, he said "I kinda like Emmett, you disagree?" I told him "I don't have a strong lean really, but if you're gonna bet Emmet you should play his KO prop at +475 or whatever because if he wins, it's likely that he absolutely flatlines Bryce." I think my buddy played some on the ML but did shift some over to the KO prop too.