UFC Apex: Tuivasa vs. Tybura, March 16, Saturday, 6 pm eastern

[Hellowhosthat]

Some of these BJJ girls seems to have a very tough time finishing subs though, despite the grappling disparity with their opponents. We've seen it several times with Dern nowadays, and with Amorim's own debut.

It's WMMA tho, dogs are always live.

Seen some good odds for it, plus money. Also surprised by Davis KO at +200. The body language I've seen from Levy in some of his fights screams no heart, and we know he tends to slow down the stretch. Think he gets overwhelmed here

Looking at the card I actually like it more than I thought. Could be one of those where I get reamed tho, lol.

Tbf I do remember Levy coming back from an ass kicking in LFA, but I don't think he can take that from Beast boy.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

People are way too confident in GM3. Barb has looked like a ghost in his last couple of fights, but GM3 is not good enough to be trusted at these odds. I think he wins, but -250 or something is crazy. The fight should be a near lock to bet that and GM3 is not a lock against anyone in the UFC.

If Barb continues to be a shell of a fighter, GM3 should finish him, so rather play a sub or ITD prop to get the exposure down a bit.

 

[manopino]

Would you recommend a $2k bet on Gm3 at -250? To win $800 , ill give u some if he wins

in my opinion at this price is not worth it, he's very chinny and slow on the feet, also barbarena is horrible but you never know in this type of fights.
I like more Isaac dulgarian at - 175.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Good luck, and yeah, a TKO is pretty much the only thing to worry about with Gerald. The bright side is that he's only been stopped once since 2020, by Pyfer who I think is on a different level than current Bryan in terms of power and skill.

As long as the world doesn't conspire against us and something stupid happens (Gerald backing himself towards the fence and letting Bryan tee off), bet should cash.

2020 would include the Chimaev and Heinisch fights, both in which he got stopped very, very early. GM3 is a enticing play as an underdog sometimes, because he's an opportunistic sub finisher like Paul Craig, but it's pretty crazy to play him at -250 imo, a fighter with 17 losses on his record is never a 'near lock'. And this fight has a good chance becoming a chaotic back and forth brawl of attrition.

 

[humperdoo]

hope to see Tuivasa drinks his beer from someone else shoe

 

[Thesnake101]

People are way too confident in GM3. Barb has looked like a ghost in his last couple of fights, but GM3 is not good enough to be trusted at these odds. I think he wins, but -250 or something is crazy. The fight should be a near lock to bet that and GM3 is not a lock against anyone in the UFC.

If Barb continues to be a shell of a fighter, GM3 should finish him, so rather play a sub or ITD prop to get the exposure down a bit.

2020 would include the Chimaev and Heinisch fights, both in which he got stopped very, very early. GM3 is a enticing play as an underdog sometimes, because he's an opportunistic sub finisher like Paul Craig, but it's pretty crazy to play him at -250 imo, a fighter with 17 losses on his record is never a 'near lock'. And this fight has a good chance becoming a chaotic back and forth brawl of attrition.

You guys need to remember that Bryan is not a MW, he's just fat. GM3 also found some consistency since the Chimaev loss as well - he went 4-1 with all of those wins coming via sub against tougher strikers than Bryan in Bruno Silva and Muradov.

Sure, he's coming into the fight on a two fight losing streak but you could make the argument he should've beaten Petroski, and I think there's a big gap between Andre, Pyfer and Jotko, and a guy like Barberena.

Obviously I could be wrong, but imo there's a clear reason Gerald's line got bet down to -250.

 

[Siver!]

Some of these BJJ girls seems to have a very tough time finishing subs though, despite the grappling disparity with their opponents. We've seen it several times with Dern nowadays, and with Amorim's own debut.

It's WMMA tho, dogs are always live.

I agree, I cannot see any finishes in that fight whatsoever.

I don't really see how Amorim wins multiple rounds on the scorecards against McKenna, either. Maybe if McKenna takes her down and gives up position over and over, but I think she holds the advantages anywhere but positional grappling.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I agree, I cannot see any finishes in that fight whatsoever.

I don't really see how Amorim wins multiple rounds on the scorecards against McKenna, either. Maybe if McKenna takes her down and gives up position over and over, but I think she holds the advantages anywhere but positional grappling.

You cannot see any finishes, whatsoever, in a fight between an undersized British grappler and one of the top female BJJ competitors of the last generation?

 

[Siver!]

You cannot see any finishes, whatsoever, in a fight between an undersized British grappler and one of the top female BJJ competitors of the last generation?

Personally, no.

Cory McKenna isn't just going to take Amorim down, she might punctuate the end of rounds 1 and 2 with takedowns for sure.

The only way she's shooting relatively early is if Amorim pieces her up on the feet, which seems very unlikely.

Amorim taking McKenna down isn't going to happen, but that doesn't mean she can't work her way into some good spots, but she couldn't submit Sam Hughes so there's no reason to overrate the effectiveness of her BJJ.

 

[mkess101]

Some of these BJJ girls seems to have a very tough time finishing subs though, despite the grappling disparity with their opponents. We've seen it several times with Dern nowadays, and with Amorim's own debut.

It's WMMA tho, dogs are always live.

Seen some good odds for it, plus money. Also surprised by Davis KO at +200. The body language I've seen from Levy in some of his fights screams no heart, and we know he tends to slow down the stretch. Think he gets overwhelmed here

Looking at the card I actually like it more than I thought. Could be one of those where I get reamed tho, lol.

Agree that they sometimes don't secure subs like you'd think they should, but Amorim kinda learned her lesson and didn't chase the sub so hard last time out. She flowed and used less energy and just dominated position until she broke that girl and got the TKO. The opponent matters of course, but so does the philosophy and it at least looks like she learned a lesson with that first loss. If she can get McKenna down, I think Amorim will be happy to control her and systematically break her down while winning rounds. I don't think she'll gas out chasing subs anymore.

To me, it's not really about what happens on the mat because if it's there McKenna is in a bad place. It's more about whether Amorim can get it there. But her TD's look at least **okay** to me, and she knows what she is. I don't see her choosing to strike, she's gonna at least try to get it to the ground.

 

[mkess101]

Personally, no.

Cory McKenna isn't just going to take Amorim down, she might punctuate the end of rounds 1 and 2 with takedowns for sure.

The only way she's shooting relatively early is if Amorim pieces her up on the feet, which seems very unlikely.

Amorim taking McKenna down isn't going to happen, but that doesn't mean she can't work her way into some good spots, but she couldn't submit Sam Hughes so there's no reason to overrate the effectiveness of her BJJ.

Man, IDK why you'd think that either McKenna has some sort of legendary TDD or that Amorim's TD's are that bad. Kay Hansen took McKenna down twice, and it's not like Hansen is Tatiana Suarez. And Amorim has an advantage when going for TD's in that she can take chances that other girls can't. She's so good off her back, if she tries a throw or something and ends up pulling guard--that's fine for her. She can absolutely sweep or work for subs from there and have McKenna defending the whole time.

She (Amorim) had Hughes in horrible spots, but got overly aggressive and adrenaline dumped and gassed out after winning a 10-8 first round where she was close to getting a sub. She corrected last time out and completely dominated on the mat. Her bjj was massively effective in this last fight.

Edit: I want to clarify here, I'm not saying I'm super confident in Amorim here either. I don't know if she'll be able to get it to the mat, she may not be able to and I think McKenna--while not a great striker--does seem to have the edge standing. My point is more that I'm surprised anyone is confident either way in this one.

 

[Siver!]

Man, IDK why you'd think that either McKenna has some sort of legendary TDD or that Amorim's TD's are that bad. Kay Hansen took McKenna down twice, and it's not like Hansen is Tatiana Suarez. And Amorim has an advantage when going for TD's in that she can take chances that other girls can't. She's so good off her back, if she tries a throw or something and ends up pulling guard--that's fine for her. She can absolutely sweep or work for subs from there and have McKenna defending the whole time.

She (Amorim) had Hughes in horrible spots, but got overly aggressive and adrenaline dumped and gassed out after winning a 10-8 first round where she was close to getting a sub. She corrected last time out and completely dominated on the mat. Her bjj was massively effective in this last fight.

Edit: I want to clarify here, I'm not saying I'm super confident in Amorim here either. I don't know if she'll be able to get it to the mat, she may not be able to and I think McKenna--while not a great striker--does seem to have the edge standing. My point is more that I'm surprised anyone is confident either way in this one.

If your question is what makes me think McKenna is likely the better wrestler, she seems to have improved a lot and has dictated pretty much every td exchange/attempt since that fight with Hansen. That's almost 4 years ago, when Cory could only have been 20 ish?

I'm just not seeing anything special out of Amorim re: takedowns. I think the requirement for takedowns does get overstated, as BJJ aces can manufacture positions on the feet or against the cage without needing a clean takedown, but I definitely think Cory is both the better striker and the better wrestler at this point.

 

[Siver!]

Agree that they sometimes don't secure subs like you'd think they should, but Amorim kinda learned her lesson and didn't chase the sub so hard last time out. She flowed and used less energy and just dominated position until she broke that girl and got the TKO. The opponent matters of course, but so does the philosophy and it at least looks like she learned a lesson with that first loss. If she can get McKenna down, I think Amorim will be happy to control her and systematically break her down while winning rounds. I don't think she'll gas out chasing subs anymore.

To me, it's not really about what happens on the mat because if it's there McKenna is in a bad place. It's more about whether Amorim can get it there. But her TD's look at least **okay** to me, and she knows what she is. I don't see her choosing to strike, she's gonna at least try to get it to the ground.

It's worth reiterating that Montserrat is a terrible fighter. Dominating Montserrat isn't a very big deal. I doubt she wins another fight at even entry level standard, it was bizarre that she beat an inexperienced Vlismas with basically one move that she hasn't been able to repeat since.

 

[mkess101]

It's worth reiterating that Montserrat is a terrible fighter. Dominating Montserrat isn't a very big deal. I doubt she wins another fight at even entry level standard, it was bizarre that she beat an inexperienced Vlismas with basically one move that she hasn't been able to repeat since.

That's true, but it was a completely one-sided beatdown too. It's not like it was remotely competitive. The bigger takeaway to me was that Amorim didn't get all crazy chasing the sub when she got to her positions. It was methodical, which is what the elite bjj players that have MMA grappling success tend to do.

I think Amorim would benefit a lot from working with someone like Demian Maia. Learn how to shoot the single leg entry, run the pipe, then use that to snake her way to the back even while standing. Like you said, a traditional TD isn't necessary for someone like her.

 

[StewDogg11]

With the GM3 fight I'm just gonna wait for his sub prop. High chance that's the outcome imo, Barb loves getting subbed.

I thought this as well but was pretty shocked when I looked it up and saw that Barberena has only been subbed 3 times in 29 fights.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That's true, but it was a completely one-sided beatdown too. It's not like it was remotely competitive. The bigger takeaway to me was that Amorim didn't get all crazy chasing the sub when she got to her positions. It was methodical, which is what the elite bjj players that have MMA grappling success tend to do.

I think Amorim would benefit a lot from working with someone like Demian Maia. Learn how to shoot the single leg entry, run the pipe, then use that to snake her way to the back even while standing. Like you said, a traditional TD isn't necessary for someone like her.

there was a moment on the Ruiz fight where she put Amorim on her back in round 3 and she just laid there for *2 mins, she reversed and finished Ruiz, but Cory would have been more competent there. That is a negative position for bjj girl like her to be in by Ruiz. It means she is going to have a tendency to give up round 3. So, you need her to over perform either get a finish or win the first two rounds. But it's likely to go 1-1 into the third round, and she could just give 3 easily, Cory is the rightful favorite too on resume.

I've switched back and forth so many times, i just pass.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

If your question is what makes me think McKenna is likely the better wrestler, she seems to have improved a lot and has dictated pretty much every td exchange/attempt since that fight with Hansen. That's almost 4 years ago, when Cory could only have been 20 ish?

None of McKenna's opponents since Kay Hansen have shot any takedowns on her so of course she has dictated every td exchange/attempt.

 

[Georges Hefner]

in my opinion at this price is not worth it, he's very chinny and slow on the feet, also barbarena is horrible but you never know in this type of fights.
I like more Isaac dulgarian at - 175.

Tell me more about Dulgarian. Ive never heard of him but many people are betting on him

 

[mkess101]

there was a moment on the Ruiz fight where she put Amorim on her back in round 3 and she just laid there for *2 mins, she reversed and finished Ruiz, but Cory would have been more competent there. That is a negative position for bjj girl like her to be in by Ruiz. It means she is going to have a tendency to give up round 3. So, you need her to over perform either get a finish or win the first two rounds. But it's likely to go 1-1 into the third round, and she could just give 3 easily, Cory is the rightful favorite too on resume.

I've switched back and forth so many times, i just pass.

Yeah Corey probably more competent in that spot, but hard to say how much if she'd spent most of the fight defending and getting schooled. That takes a lot of energy.

I'm not even sure Amorim can get McKenna down. If she can, she'll have a clear edge for the first 10 minutes at least. If not, Corey likely wins.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah Corey probably more competent in that spot, but hard to say how much if she'd spent most of the fight defending and getting schooled. That takes a lot of energy.

I'm not even sure Amorim can get McKenna down. If she can, she'll have a clear edge for the first 10 minutes at least. If not, Corey likely wins.

likely she can scramble. Amorim has decent hands, the odds at coin flip dont look tempting enough, i think they both match well. maybe im in the wrong but should you ever play a coin flip at 100+ or 110+ ?

I feel for these type of fights i prefer the dog to have at least 175+ ^ price to take the risk.