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D
Dosent Murphy has decent takedown defence ?
UFC Fight Night 173 Blaydes vs. Volkov
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Roxy gets to much respect, she just beat a fat low level prospect
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Daaaamn Joe Solecki is out, had him in parlay
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Bc this fight is going to be an absolute scrap in the small cage and I feel confident that Camacho, though I like him as a fighter, is going to gas out HARD.
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Two washed up fighters past their prime, Guidas chin is weak but what if he wrestles Bobby to a decision?
Dog or pass only
Bobby is no parlay material and his ml odds suck to bet him single
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I think Bobby's grappling is good enough to hold his own. His body kicks and hands should eat guida up. You're def right about them being washed up
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Looking at Emmett and Burgos and then considering the small cage is in play makes for a tough choice. I think at this point the cage, the short notice and the unusual training situations(for some fighters) do have to be considered in capping.
Josh Emmett has big power, thick through the trunk he's able to generate a lot of torque and gets his body weight into every punch. A down side of this is he doesn't show a lot variety, he wants to land that power always. He leaps into the range with big hooks, right/left or sometimes two right hand hooks and the left but it's all power shots and in a quick burst and then back out. He's always looking to land the big hook or the big over hand, he has some kicks to the leg, he has a jab, but they aren't a big feature of his game. His game is all power, head removing swinging from the hip bombs.
Burgos is the better technical striker for sure but for such a tall and long fighter he really under uses his range tools, the jab is there, the low kick is there and a nice front kick up the middle, but he strongly favours boxing range and pocket exchanges. In this space he is very good, nice tight short shots.
A big concern is the danger of playing in that range with a power hitter like Emmett. Burgos eats a lot of shots and has been rocked and dropped and finished in previous fights. Trading shot for shot with Emmett is risky, one bad slip, or a guard just too slow too come back to the chin and you will find yourself knocked out. Both men have big defensive holes, both can and are often hit, Burgos in particular, especially early in the fight.
There is, in a way I think, opportunity for the pressure and crowding of Burgos to help though. If you take the space away from Emmett he can't do that standard team alpha male 'run in over hand' they all use, if Burgos is on him like glue and gives no space it limits Emmetts' options even further.
Burgos lacks true stopping power, Emmett lacks depth, both men lack defensively.
I think Emmett is the more simple puzzle to solve, he doesn't have a deep bag of tricks to draw from, but small mistakes can cost you massively.
I can of course see Emmett landing the bomb and ending the show, and that will be a threat through out the whole fight, but over all I think Burgos can land the cleaner sharper punches, pressure Emmett to back up to the cage and find a rhythm and pace that Emmett wont be able to match.
The ITD and under 2.5 are likely to hit here, the small cage will make for a pressure cooker and one man will likely crack, I will look to play this, line depending.
I bet Burgos pre-tape for 2 units, post tape I believe I will reduce to one. I do favour Burgos to win the fight, after probably a rough first round (If he survives), and I feel he has more ways to win, a decision or KO/TKO is on the cards, where as I think Emmett is more likely KO or bust.
Josh Emmett has big power, thick through the trunk he's able to generate a lot of torque and gets his body weight into every punch. A down side of this is he doesn't show a lot variety, he wants to land that power always. He leaps into the range with big hooks, right/left or sometimes two right hand hooks and the left but it's all power shots and in a quick burst and then back out. He's always looking to land the big hook or the big over hand, he has some kicks to the leg, he has a jab, but they aren't a big feature of his game. His game is all power, head removing swinging from the hip bombs.
Burgos is the better technical striker for sure but for such a tall and long fighter he really under uses his range tools, the jab is there, the low kick is there and a nice front kick up the middle, but he strongly favours boxing range and pocket exchanges. In this space he is very good, nice tight short shots.
A big concern is the danger of playing in that range with a power hitter like Emmett. Burgos eats a lot of shots and has been rocked and dropped and finished in previous fights. Trading shot for shot with Emmett is risky, one bad slip, or a guard just too slow too come back to the chin and you will find yourself knocked out. Both men have big defensive holes, both can and are often hit, Burgos in particular, especially early in the fight.
There is, in a way I think, opportunity for the pressure and crowding of Burgos to help though. If you take the space away from Emmett he can't do that standard team alpha male 'run in over hand' they all use, if Burgos is on him like glue and gives no space it limits Emmetts' options even further.
Burgos lacks true stopping power, Emmett lacks depth, both men lack defensively.
I think Emmett is the more simple puzzle to solve, he doesn't have a deep bag of tricks to draw from, but small mistakes can cost you massively.
I can of course see Emmett landing the bomb and ending the show, and that will be a threat through out the whole fight, but over all I think Burgos can land the cleaner sharper punches, pressure Emmett to back up to the cage and find a rhythm and pace that Emmett wont be able to match.
The ITD and under 2.5 are likely to hit here, the small cage will make for a pressure cooker and one man will likely crack, I will look to play this, line depending.
I bet Burgos pre-tape for 2 units, post tape I believe I will reduce to one. I do favour Burgos to win the fight, after probably a rough first round (If he survives), and I feel he has more ways to win, a decision or KO/TKO is on the cards, where as I think Emmett is more likely KO or bust.
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I like here Josh, I predicted nearly all his fights good (even the Stephens one, lost only with Desmond Green)
Smaller cage will benefit him and like I said, Burgos has suspect chin.
I Give Josh 70% win chance
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Miller +190. Ima have a looksee here.
Brok Weaver is the shittiest fighter in the UFC and he had SOME success holding Robert's against the cage right? Or am I remembering wrong
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Mark dela rosa is the shitiest fighter.
Well I woudlnt pay to much attention to that. Robert will smoke Miller
I will be betting on a lot of finishes this card. Research suggests that the finish rate goes up by 20% in this smaller cage. The odds also haven't incorporated the smaller cage yet. Agapova by finish and Vettori by finish for example paid out over 4x.
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Mhm.. Josh is 35 years old I see.
Damn I think I will pass on this fight. Looking at his last wins
He beat Lamas who has glass chin
He beat washed up past prime feather MJ
He beat Bektic who was a good match up for him and a glass chin also.
Tricky fight
Damn I think I will pass on this fight. Looking at his last wins
He beat Lamas who has glass chin
He beat washed up past prime feather MJ
He beat Bektic who was a good match up for him and a glass chin also.
Tricky fight
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I think the athletic discrepancy between Belal and Lyman may be enough to make the difference in this fight.
Belal is a good all rounder and keeps fights close by using basics well. There's no flash to his game, it's jabs, left hooks, low kicks and well timed take downs.
The takedown threat is the stand out of his game, without that I feel there would be a few more loses on his record. He doesn't have the greatest top control and doesn't always get as much out of a successful takedown as he should but just the thought of it can be enough to throw his opponents off.
Lyman is the physically more impressive fighter, bigger, stronger, faster hands and more power, but with that there is a cost - His cardio and output declines as the fight goes on, he doesn't gas out to a stop but he certainly slows.
In this fight I feel Belal will be the one backing up and feeling the strong pressure of Lyman who always moves forward and looks to bully his opponents.
Both men throw a lot of single shots, fast jabs and fast low kicks from both but Lyman has a speed edge in his punches and kicks, he throws them with more power and has the cleaner crisper straight punches.
Lyman will throw in combination but only when he makes a clean connection with a jab or straight punch, then a burst of 3 or 4 more will follow.
Balal is lighter on his feet and will have to keep moving and skirting the edge of the octagon to avoid getting trapped against the cage here. In the smaller Octigon I think things are swayed slightly more towards Lyman, in what is on paper a very close fight. Belal is always a tricky test but ultimately he is a gate keeper to the rankings, a test that many fail but there seems to be a clear dividing line between those who past the test and those who fail, and that is an athletic edge.
Lyman can explode with rapid flurries and when he does he can land big damage, I feel under pressure and physicality of Lyman, and with no where to go, Belal will get caught in these bursts and hurt.
If Belal is to win he will have to stay in constant motion, make Lyman chase him and then snipe with jabs. It is a viable path to victory but leaves little room for error. Minuets of good work by Belal can be ruined by one or two big moments from Lyman in a round, a flurry lands clean and 2 minuets of carefully timed jabs and low kicks can be voided.
The takedown is the question mark hanging over the fight, if Belal can time and secure takedowns, even one per round it could turn the tide of the fight. Getting Lyman to his back, making him work his way up, weighing on him, could quickly drain his gas tank.
In a fight so close I will take the underdog. His pressure and power should be enough to take rounds from the fighter on the back foot. I can see a close decision here, a finish either way is unlikely just because both men are so tough.
Lyman good by decision is my pick
Belal is a good all rounder and keeps fights close by using basics well. There's no flash to his game, it's jabs, left hooks, low kicks and well timed take downs.
The takedown threat is the stand out of his game, without that I feel there would be a few more loses on his record. He doesn't have the greatest top control and doesn't always get as much out of a successful takedown as he should but just the thought of it can be enough to throw his opponents off.
Lyman is the physically more impressive fighter, bigger, stronger, faster hands and more power, but with that there is a cost - His cardio and output declines as the fight goes on, he doesn't gas out to a stop but he certainly slows.
In this fight I feel Belal will be the one backing up and feeling the strong pressure of Lyman who always moves forward and looks to bully his opponents.
Both men throw a lot of single shots, fast jabs and fast low kicks from both but Lyman has a speed edge in his punches and kicks, he throws them with more power and has the cleaner crisper straight punches.
Lyman will throw in combination but only when he makes a clean connection with a jab or straight punch, then a burst of 3 or 4 more will follow.
Balal is lighter on his feet and will have to keep moving and skirting the edge of the octagon to avoid getting trapped against the cage here. In the smaller Octigon I think things are swayed slightly more towards Lyman, in what is on paper a very close fight. Belal is always a tricky test but ultimately he is a gate keeper to the rankings, a test that many fail but there seems to be a clear dividing line between those who past the test and those who fail, and that is an athletic edge.
Lyman can explode with rapid flurries and when he does he can land big damage, I feel under pressure and physicality of Lyman, and with no where to go, Belal will get caught in these bursts and hurt.
If Belal is to win he will have to stay in constant motion, make Lyman chase him and then snipe with jabs. It is a viable path to victory but leaves little room for error. Minuets of good work by Belal can be ruined by one or two big moments from Lyman in a round, a flurry lands clean and 2 minuets of carefully timed jabs and low kicks can be voided.
The takedown is the question mark hanging over the fight, if Belal can time and secure takedowns, even one per round it could turn the tide of the fight. Getting Lyman to his back, making him work his way up, weighing on him, could quickly drain his gas tank.
In a fight so close I will take the underdog. His pressure and power should be enough to take rounds from the fighter on the back foot. I can see a close decision here, a finish either way is unlikely just because both men are so tough.
Lyman good by decision is my pick
Meh, I also don't think Roxy needs a takedown to win. She might be better everywhere. If Lee got that decision win over Murphy, I think we'd see Roxy closer to -180
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Lmfao at the reasoning disparity between these two comments
Paragraphs of legitimate reasoning outlining all posibilities in depth on one side, "small cage is good, Burgos has suspect chin" on the other
