UFC Fight Night 185: Chiesa vs. Magny

I actually went back and watched some fights today because I had a slow day at work for once. I really like Chiesa here as a dog. It's arguably the biggest difference I've seen in a guy from deciding not to cut so much weight. Other guys like Bobby Knuckles and Lionheart have had more proven success, but just from a purely visible standpoint there's really no comparison.

Go rewatch Chiesa vs Pettis where Mike gets outgrappled and looks like death from the weight cut. Then watch his last fight vs RDA where he bullies and mostly ragdolls a really solid grappler. It's absolutely like watching two different guys.

Magny is a solid grappler, but his TDD is just...meh. And while he's generally solid off his back defensively (sans the RDA fight), he doesn't offer a ton there.

5 rounds probably favors Magny, but it's not like we've actually seen Chiesa slow down much in his 3 round WW fights. Any gas tank issues in his past may have been only due to cutting and absurd amount of weight.

I now favor Chiesa, I think he should be about -175 or so. Anyone betting him as a dog is getting crazy value imo.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Smh I thought the card started at 12. No, the prelims start at 9am et

Haven’t been playing openers but couldn’t resist Marcus Perez at +262 against dalcha. Perez should probably be a slight favorite here
Click to expand...

Yeah that line has me confused too. Dalcha's best win is Daquan fucking Townsend(who failed an in-comp drug test for cocaine and fentanyl during that fight) and it still took Dalcha 3 rounds to put him away. Perez is tough as fuck and really hard to finish despite that loss to Duplessis(a fight that was going his way before he got tagged). Neither have the best fight IQ but if I'm looking at strength of schedule, cardio, and skill my money is on Perez to take it.
 
mkess101 said:
I actually went back and watched some fights today because I had a slow day at work for once. I really like Chiesa here as a dog. It's arguably the biggest difference I've seen in a guy from deciding not to cut so much weight. Other guys like Bobby Knuckles and Lionheart have had more proven success, but just from a purely visible standpoint there's really no comparison.

Go rewatch Chiesa vs Pettis where Mike gets outgrappled and looks like death from the weight cut. Then watch his last fight vs RDA where he bullies and mostly ragdolls a really solid grappler. It's absolutely like watching two different guys.

Magny is a solid grappler, but his TDD is just...meh. And while he's generally solid off his back defensively (sans the RDA fight), he doesn't offer a ton there.

5 rounds probably favors Magny, but it's not like we've actually seen Chiesa slow down much in his 3 round WW fights. Any gas tank issues in his past may have been only due to cutting and absurd amount of weight.

I now favor Chiesa, I think he should be about -175 or so. Anyone betting him as a dog is getting crazy value imo.
Click to expand...
+300 range for chiesa sub has value too he's definitely capable of subbing magny.
 
@BigSteve you should add like $25 or something on nam round 1 at +400 to compliment ur plays, schnell has been deaded 3 times now in the first round and nam has a good chance to make it 4.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
@BigSteve you should add like $25 or something on nam round 1 at +400 to compliment ur plays, schnell has been deaded 3 times now in the first round and nam has a good chance to make it 4.
Click to expand...
Ye I thought about it, but don't want to complicate it as Nam can land the KO in any round. Sometime he comes out slower to get reads,eg Jerome Rivera. Often he turns it on late in the third with pressure etc.
 
Oblivian said:
At least it's on ESPN so it's easy to record. I had watching ESPN+ cards at a later time because I feel like getting spoilers is really easy through the app.
Click to expand...
The espn+ app will often show the winner or spoilers if you just try to login..drives me nuts since I watch alot of events a tape delay.

Tip of the day: before fight day, log in to espn plus, the go "replays". Save that page as a bookmark on your browser. Click it and it takes you to replays without spoilers
 
carolinagrapple said:
The espn+ app will often show the winner or spoilers if you just try to login..drives me nuts since I watch alot of events a tape delay.

Tip of the day: before fight day, log in to espn plus, the go "replays". Save that page as a bookmark on your browser. Click it and it takes you to replays without spoilers
Click to expand...
When I have to watch stuff late I get my brother to open mmacore for me lol
 
any thoughts on a parlay of Neil Magny, Tyson Nam, Mike Davis, Mounir Lazzez, and Tom Breese total odds are +893
 
wufabufa said:
Yeah that line has me confused too. Dalcha's best win is Daquan fucking Townsend(who failed an in-comp drug test for cocaine and fentanyl during that fight) and it still took Dalcha 3 rounds to put him away. Perez is tough as fuck and really hard to finish despite that loss to Duplessis(a fight that was going his way before he got tagged). Neither have the best fight IQ but if I'm looking at strength of schedule, cardio, and skill my money is on Perez to take it.
Click to expand...

Let me get this straight.

So Perez in his last fight lost to Dricus (EFC MW Champ) by first round knockout.

BUT he is tough enough to not get knocked out in the same way by Dalcha (EFC LHW Champ)?

What you don't mention about Dalcha knocking out Dequan is the fact it was the first time Dequan had been knocked out in his 30+ fight career which included guys like Jamahal Hill.

You are just chasing an underdog lets be honest. That is fine, but don't put it as 'advice' in a thread.
 
Can anyone make a case for Zarrukh Adashev (+350) to beat Su Mudaerji (-455) ? He seems so green to MMA overall, he's coming over from kickboxing. 3-2 MMA record. Got blasted out by Tyson Nam in 32 seconds in his UFC debut. The only thing in his favor I think is that Su Mudaerji seems to be stepping in on about 3 weeks notice from what I can gather.

I think the chances that Adashev wins this fight are incredibly slim.
 
In the words of Stringer Bell, "Lot of new faces around here. Way too many if you ask me"

Anyways, I'm leaning towards Chiesa now and just locked in a play on him at +120 because I think the odds shift even more over the next 12 hours.
 
Jordan3399 said:
10u Lil Big Fig +Lezzez +141

0.5u Breese to actually fight +250

3 sheep on Mason Jones to win 5 sheep

Also freerolled a bit of Lazzez -137 that I got early on Betfair. Maxed that to win the full £20 which was a generous limit.
Click to expand...

dude i liked your analises, but why are you now putting fake picks in the bet threat? is just weird...
 
Invictis said:
This card starts way too fucking early.
Click to expand...

the 2 first cards of the year in perfect European Time, it is just great! well today is a little early but there is no one at my work, so i can watch at the office with no problemos.
 
Anyone else think Ricky Simon looked real bad at weigh-ins?

Might have to take a flier on Pirrello here
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,776
Messages
55,516,427
Members
174,806
Latest member
hardscarf

Share this page

Back
Top