UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

[Broe.]

Main event will be 5 rounds. I think this favours Smith.

 

[Richard Cruz]

so pearce is moving down to featherweight? he is 6'0 seems like a rough cut!

He checks out just fine. Kamaka looks like a weight class below

 

[weedreference]

To me Dumont is a no-brainer bet. She was terrified against Anderson (not abnormal for a woman vs. a 6'1" powerful striker, this was also the case with Holm and Zingano) and didn't have the experience to come up with a clever way to get the fight to the ground (+Anderson has improved in that regard), and so she gassed herself out trying to force it. This time she is fighting one of the least dangerous fighters at 135 and will be able to manage her energy far better on the feet. I actually predict she will piece AES up on the feet, and that her performance against Anderson will look like a gift from the betting gods, otherwise she would be in the -200 range where I think she belongs.

 

[Card]

Norma Dumont (139.5)* vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (135.5)
*Dumont missed the women’s bantamweight limit and will be fined 30 percent of her purse.

 

[Endgamesbro]

This Parisian-porter fight seems like a classic example of inflated contender series hype, wiki capping, and recency bias. Two first round finishes that really didn’t prove a whole lot. One by a spinning back fist - as someone who bet porter, I want Parisian to throw spinning shit as the chances that he gets countered are much higher than that of it actually being successful. Other one was his most recent bout vs Chad Johnson. Not only was Johnson outweighed by 50 (!) pounds, he’s not exactly an example of high caliber competition. Even so, he was able to tag Parisian heavy before laughably going for a takedown.

It is insane how bad the competition Parisian has defeated to get here, and he had to battle serious adversity virtually every fight. This has given him a reputation of a tough grinder who will get that late finish, but why the fuck is he getting rocked and slammed by 3-6 and 8-11 competition? Not only that, these are guys who are either in their 40s or dwarfed by 40-50 pounds, or both. It’s no coincidence these cans are having success too, Parisian has horrible striking technique and extremely basic grappling by any standard aside from heavyweight. Even so, he’s only able to get these guys down when they’re so exhausted they can’t even walk (obviously exasperated by weight edge). Also, the last time Parisian even got to a r3 was in 2017 where he won a majority decision over a 6-5 fighter, so his cardio edge isn’t as much of a certainty as most are making it out to be.

Crazy recency bias with porter. If one where to actually look at his fights, that would see that he has serviceable boxing, solid takedowns, and great tdd. He arguably holds the edge over josh in all those areas. Cutting from 290 on 6 days notice against a much more skilled fighter than Parisian isn’t a true representation of porter as a fighter. His durability was questioned, but the nascimento fight should silence that as porter took approximately 3x the punishment as nas did before finally falling. Josh has horrible technique which lends to very little power, the public is impressed by his finish-heavy record but these are all from gnp.

Porters last opponent before the ufc (1 year ago) looks far better than anybody Parisian has ever fought. That fight couldnt have been higher paced by heavyweight standards, and porter one punched him late into round 3. In fact porter likes to push that pace himself in basically all his fights. Given the full camp, it’s much more likely that version of porter comes out. No matter what, I will happily give away my 4u on Porter +190 as I have to cap him -125 here. Skill for skill, it should be more but Parisian does seem like a tough bastard and looked marginally improved in his most recent fight, and of course there is that chance porter comes out flat. This is low level heavyweight after all, but value is value.

 

[ITD]

 

[mkess101]

Wow^^^

Initial thought is that we may well see a low output striking match. Lewis seriously doesn't give a F what people think. No crowd, so no boos if activity is too low. Jair will feel he's the more skilled striker for sure, but will obviously respect Derrick's power.

Not saying we'll get something as bad as Lewis/Ngannou but it could be pretty uneventful. Both are of course capable of landing something big at any time...just wouldn't be sure at all that there will be any fireworks.

 

[carolinagrapple]

Arial helwani says fake news on jair stepping in.....please be wrong!

 

[2020Tracked]

Well it says UFC Vegas 17 any way which isn't for like 3 weeks

 

[mkess101]

Ahh damn. Ok.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Is this confirmed?

 

[svmr_db]

Is this confirmed?

 

[Deleted member 316645]

@Sadistics Thoughts on the Anthony Smith fight now that it's 5 rounds instead of 3?

I think his line will go down. People saw him gas against Glover, but Glover has top control and BJJ that Clark doesn't have.

I've never seen Clark go past 3, but I think he has the cardio for it.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

@Sadistics Thoughts on the Anthony Smith fight now that it's 5 rounds instead of 3?

I think his line will go down. People saw him gas against Glover, but Glover has top control and BJJ that Clark doesn't have.

I've never seen Clark go past 3, but I think he has the cardio for it.

clark requested it so one would hope so lol

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Playing

ostovich at +180 to win a unit
Dumont +125 to win a unit
dos Santos at +150 to win 2 units
Porter at +180 to win 2 units

might end up on smith as well

have some prop bets on dos Santos rd 1 ko, sanders rd1 and 2 ko, Dumont sub, Smith rd1 ko, kamaka dec

 

[325underdog]

Seeing a lot of people pick Luke Sanders. I see Sadistics got him at + odds, in which case the pick is an obvious one. But I am not getting good vibes at his current -150 line. Between Sanders and Baeza who was also -150, I much preferred Baeza.

 

[2bet]

Ostovich vs Mazany, that's WMMA's Worst for sure.
There should be value on Ostovich at those odds, but I rather stay away from that shitshow.

 

[benebox]

@Sadistics Thoughts on the Anthony Smith fight now that it's 5 rounds instead of 3?

I think his line will go down. People saw him gas against Glover, but Glover has top control and BJJ that Clark doesn't have.

I've never seen Clark go past 3, but I think he has the cardio for it.

I originally thought Clark may be able to do just enough to grind out a 3 rd decision but 5 rounds just gives Smith 2 more rounds to get the finish against a fighter who has never been past 3.

 

[mkess101]

Ostovich vs Mazany, that's WMMA's Worst for sure.
There should be value on Ostovich at those odds, but I rather stay away from that shitshow.

Either can win but betting Mazany as a favorite here would be awful imo. Ostovich could even find a sub, wouldn't shock me.

 

[Broe.]

Did Ostovich have those giant boobs already in the Vanzant fight? If not this would be another reason for me to fade her. How can you fight with such watermelons?