UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
- Thread starter BigSteve
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Gotta think after getting his head kicked into the bleachers last time out that Gregor is gonna be on Brad like glue from the start. I can't see Brad winning other than catching Gillespie.
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Still need to finish taping this one but I like Brads NSC line at +250. Brad has never been koed. That and Gregor is coming off a long layoff and a broken jaw in the Lee fight.
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Gregor is more likely to sub Riddell than TKO him imo
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Good point, guess I'm banking on him being able survive to the decision. For +250 I think there is at least a 30% or better chance he sees the scorecards for a push. I hate betting against wrestlers but Riddell's short hooks could be a nightmare for Gregor if he can't keep him down or sub him early.
*Edit nvm guess that's off for now. Hope they rebook soon Brad already has a crazy long quarantine as is
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I had a 3 fight parlay with Gillespie, Stewart, and Edwards that literally all legs got cancelled on.
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For anybody interested I like Nicolas Leblond on the CW 122 prelims.
Ogorman is a karate guy with little power and tall man defense. He has decent bjj but seems to slow down and get alot more hittable after grappling exchanges.
Leblond is a former judo guy with solid SP striking and grappling. He had success against a much better version of Ogorman in Sam Creasey who is ranked #1 at 125 in the UK and Ireland. Ogormans striking isn't terrible but his defense is, the guy has a habit of something and getting KOED by low level fighters. Leblond probably grinds on him and then finds a late KO.
Ogorman is a karate guy with little power and tall man defense. He has decent bjj but seems to slow down and get alot more hittable after grappling exchanges.
Leblond is a former judo guy with solid SP striking and grappling. He had success against a much better version of Ogorman in Sam Creasey who is ranked #1 at 125 in the UK and Ireland. Ogormans striking isn't terrible but his defense is, the guy has a habit of something and getting KOED by low level fighters. Leblond probably grinds on him and then finds a late KO.
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Who's the mush? Lots of big favourites this week, our top 5 are - Montel Jackson, Tai Tuivasa, Chyanne Buys, Macy Chiasson or Adrian Yanez... Who's losing?
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Macy most likely
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Think Jackson is the mush. Parlay it with that I only do 1000000: 1 parlay guy posting bullshit for the rest of my life as your lock of the night.
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Ha turned the fight on just in time to see Leblond get his hand raised. R2 finish from the frenchman, easy money.
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Couple of UFC props I like tonight.
@Invictis if you haven't played your parlay Brunson ISD at +405 could be a nice swap since Gregor is out, just a thought.
●Brunson +5 1/2 at even money looks good, ML is probably better though I really don't think Kevin can KO him unless he just stands still
●Not Holland ISD -130 I like the variety here I guess it really just covers Holland some way winning a DEC but still. I think Brunson stops him but they were literally playing grab ass at the face offs.
●C. Buys -3 1/2 points -140
Big size advantage for Cheyanne and she is a much better boxer. I think Ruiz gets her nose jabbed in for 3 rounds.
●Tai KO -285 / Tai R1 -150 If ya want to lose some of the juice. I know it's HW and he isn't anything special but Tai has shown the ability to compete a full 3 rounds with ufc competition if need be. Hunsucker is a bum crusher and has never show the ability to make it past r1 in pro mma. Hunsucker KO at +680 is a great hedge, the guys entire game is kill or be killed.
●Macy/Marion starts r3 -270
Off memory I don't think either are big finishers and imagine we get at least 2 rounds of boxing here
●Dawson NSC -175/ -3 1/2 points +145
Haven't finished this one and it is hard to bet against brazilian redwood. Still I think Dawson could grind him out the long it goes.
●Dolidze -3 1/2 +115
He is green and can give up moments/positions being too confident.
ML near even might be the better bet.
●Strader vs Jackson doesn't start r3 -165
With there styles it's hard to see this going over 2Rs or 2.5Rs. I think someone is getting caught. Strader ISD is +8xx and his KO is +1200. Seems like his one chance too.
Best I have so far any opinions are appreciated.
@Invictis if you haven't played your parlay Brunson ISD at +405 could be a nice swap since Gregor is out, just a thought.
●Brunson +5 1/2 at even money looks good, ML is probably better though I really don't think Kevin can KO him unless he just stands still
●Not Holland ISD -130 I like the variety here I guess it really just covers Holland some way winning a DEC but still. I think Brunson stops him but they were literally playing grab ass at the face offs.
●C. Buys -3 1/2 points -140
Big size advantage for Cheyanne and she is a much better boxer. I think Ruiz gets her nose jabbed in for 3 rounds.
●Tai KO -285 / Tai R1 -150 If ya want to lose some of the juice. I know it's HW and he isn't anything special but Tai has shown the ability to compete a full 3 rounds with ufc competition if need be. Hunsucker is a bum crusher and has never show the ability to make it past r1 in pro mma. Hunsucker KO at +680 is a great hedge, the guys entire game is kill or be killed.
●Macy/Marion starts r3 -270
Off memory I don't think either are big finishers and imagine we get at least 2 rounds of boxing here
●Dawson NSC -175/ -3 1/2 points +145
Haven't finished this one and it is hard to bet against brazilian redwood. Still I think Dawson could grind him out the long it goes.
●Dolidze -3 1/2 +115
He is green and can give up moments/positions being too confident.
ML near even might be the better bet.
●Strader vs Jackson doesn't start r3 -165
With there styles it's hard to see this going over 2Rs or 2.5Rs. I think someone is getting caught. Strader ISD is +8xx and his KO is +1200. Seems like his one chance too.
Best I have so far any opinions are appreciated.
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Since someone was bemoaning the lack of breakdowns, I'll go ahead and provide two;
Ruiz-Buys-
Buys is a fairly mediocre fighter at present, so the temptation may be to take Ruiz, who has a seemingly solid record, and has even submitted a name fighter of sorts in Janaisa Morandin in round 1, as the massive dog.
This would be a mistake.
Ruiz has some of the most awful striking you will ever see in MMA, with "punches" that frequently resemble arm flails more than anything. She has a slow, pawing right jab and a pushing, painfully telegraphed, slow left cross. She also throws weak, powerless kicks that are stiff and she doesn't even turn her hips into. I will spare you more of the nitty-gritty technical details, but her footwork and defense are awful, too.
Buys' striking may be limited, but she can throw a useful right cross and she has surprisingly good footwork. Maybe Ruiz will score on some wild flurries, but Buys should have a solid advantage here, especially in rounds 2 and 3.
However, Ruiz mostly wins thanks to her grappling. Alas, it's quite bad. She fights like a judoka making her first MMA appearance in 1995. She completely ignores underhooks to go for head and arm throws and uses a scarfhold on the ground that has little place in MMA, and absolutely none at women's 115 pounds, where fighters are small and quick. Needless to say, it's very easy to take her own back.
One of the reasons I didn't want to bet against Buys on the Contenders, despite her being a bloated -220, is that she has fairly solid jits, which goes a long way on a very low level of WMMA, which Casey O'Neill recently proved against Shana Dobson.
I don't see Ruiz taking Buys down, and if she forces matters, she will be on bottom or have her back taken. Even if Ruiz somehow gets Buys down, her use of the scarfhold will allow her to slip out and take her back.
So how does Ruiz win again? Well, a random sub, repeatedly scoring with her wild arm flails against a Buys who is somehow too bewildered to act, and/or magically improving a lot more than Buys since their last fight about 7 months ago, despite her limited improvement in the almost 2 years before then. All feel very, very unlikely, but Buys isn't skilled enough where some weird occurrences won't make this a closer fight than necessary.
My advice is to pass on both here.
Chiasson vs. Reneau-
Reneau is steeply in decline, with her reaction time slowing down considerably and her cardio worsening significantly. And yet, Chiasson is a surprisingly good match-up in that regard.
Chiasson's punches are a lot more technical and powerful than most women, but they're also a little slow, which should help Reneau have success herself with boxing. And Chiasson's own cardio has been a relative weakpoint, so they might slow down around the same time, or fight a similarly slower-paced affair. While Reneau has otherwise declined, her wrestling actually improved against Pennington, so I don't see Chiasson clinching and looking for the takedown as being a surefire strategy, especially since it saps her own cardio, and she couldn't even take Lansberg down from there.
Chiasson should have the edge striking now (although Reneau would have had the edge about 3-5 years ago), especially if she uses her body kicks, but again, her flaws will mask some of Reneau's degradation, and it may end up a lot closer than one would like.
I was really hoping for Chiasson to get lower into the -1XX territory, but she never did, so I'll advise a pass here, too.
Ruiz-Buys-
Buys is a fairly mediocre fighter at present, so the temptation may be to take Ruiz, who has a seemingly solid record, and has even submitted a name fighter of sorts in Janaisa Morandin in round 1, as the massive dog.
This would be a mistake.
Ruiz has some of the most awful striking you will ever see in MMA, with "punches" that frequently resemble arm flails more than anything. She has a slow, pawing right jab and a pushing, painfully telegraphed, slow left cross. She also throws weak, powerless kicks that are stiff and she doesn't even turn her hips into. I will spare you more of the nitty-gritty technical details, but her footwork and defense are awful, too.
Buys' striking may be limited, but she can throw a useful right cross and she has surprisingly good footwork. Maybe Ruiz will score on some wild flurries, but Buys should have a solid advantage here, especially in rounds 2 and 3.
However, Ruiz mostly wins thanks to her grappling. Alas, it's quite bad. She fights like a judoka making her first MMA appearance in 1995. She completely ignores underhooks to go for head and arm throws and uses a scarfhold on the ground that has little place in MMA, and absolutely none at women's 115 pounds, where fighters are small and quick. Needless to say, it's very easy to take her own back.
One of the reasons I didn't want to bet against Buys on the Contenders, despite her being a bloated -220, is that she has fairly solid jits, which goes a long way on a very low level of WMMA, which Casey O'Neill recently proved against Shana Dobson.
I don't see Ruiz taking Buys down, and if she forces matters, she will be on bottom or have her back taken. Even if Ruiz somehow gets Buys down, her use of the scarfhold will allow her to slip out and take her back.
So how does Ruiz win again? Well, a random sub, repeatedly scoring with her wild arm flails against a Buys who is somehow too bewildered to act, and/or magically improving a lot more than Buys since their last fight about 7 months ago, despite her limited improvement in the almost 2 years before then. All feel very, very unlikely, but Buys isn't skilled enough where some weird occurrences won't make this a closer fight than necessary.
My advice is to pass on both here.
Chiasson vs. Reneau-
Reneau is steeply in decline, with her reaction time slowing down considerably and her cardio worsening significantly. And yet, Chiasson is a surprisingly good match-up in that regard.
Chiasson's punches are a lot more technical and powerful than most women, but they're also a little slow, which should help Reneau have success herself with boxing. And Chiasson's own cardio has been a relative weakpoint, so they might slow down around the same time, or fight a similarly slower-paced affair. While Reneau has otherwise declined, her wrestling actually improved against Pennington, so I don't see Chiasson clinching and looking for the takedown as being a surefire strategy, especially since it saps her own cardio, and she couldn't even take Lansberg down from there.
Chiasson should have the edge striking now (although Reneau would have had the edge about 3-5 years ago), especially if she uses her body kicks, but again, her flaws will mask some of Reneau's degradation, and it may end up a lot closer than one would like.
I was really hoping for Chiasson to get lower into the -1XX territory, but she never did, so I'll advise a pass here, too.
D
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I have him via KO @ +450.
Now that Gillespie, who was in a lot of my parlays is out, I guess I'm just going to throw that money on Brunson now that he's +165.
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You got bailed out by anders idiocy Stewart was on deaths door about to be ko'd. So it's good that it got canceled since ur other 2 legs are winners.
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Seeing as I was betting against Anders being an intelligent fighter in the first place I wouldn’t say I got bailed out but ya he was beating the shit out of him
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Why? Why?
I have watch the 'day of pro gambler' or something like that, after he take 40 min to break down the match up he also professionally advise to 'pass'!
This is a gambling site, if you pass than it is like saying don't get wet when going to the beach? 'pass' should not be allowed, it waste your time and people time. Even with no break down like ksw and cage warrior, I throw down ¼ unit to have some stake on the fight.
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