UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

@PolarBearPaulVarelans
Any thoughts on the Tuivasa Hunsucker fight? I know you were on Tai to beat Mayes, curious to hear what you think here.

I'm super-salty about missing the under 1.5 opener at -110, even though I was home at the time. So salty I didn't even hit the -170, which I probably should have.

Honestly, I think all the various props with Tuivasa, including ultra-specific ones like Tuivasa TKO/KO round 1 at -140, have value, but I may just play Tuivasa ML to guarantee money, as I'm struggling to think of bizarre scenarios where Hunsucker wins. There is definitely value at -475, but I'm hoping it improves even further prior to the bout.

Hunsucker is just an unbelievable bum; I put a lot of money on Vaderaa, himself a bum, on -250 against him on Contender's and thought it was terrific value.

Hunsucker's striking is abysmal, on par with guys who have boxed for a month or two, his weak, slow leg kicks are a joke, he sticks his chain straight up in the air while throwing wide, telegraphed punches, just begging to be hit, and to top it all off, his grappling sucks and he has 3-4 minutes of cardio.

For all of Tuivasa's flaws, like his lack of defense or grappling, he has genuinely good offensive striking, and not only his punches, but one of the most brutal leg kicks in the heavyweight division.

Can Hunsucker get lucky and connect on a punch? Yeah, maybe, but he actually lacks power, and we've seen before that Tuivasa has a tough chin, eating some huge shots from JDS until the sequence that floored him, although even then, Tuivasa was perfectly cognizant, he simply couldn't get out of mount.

So I guess it would require an absolutely perfect counter from Hunsucker followed by perfect follow-up strikes?

I can't imagine we're talking any better than 5-10% though, which is either -1900 to -900 for Tuivasa.

 

[GigaOuts]

Dude your first post about this was

"pass' should not be allowed"

and then you say

"There is no right or wrong way"

Yes, it should not be allow. Bet minimum like $0.50 if you have to. It is 'retarded' to put so much time and effort, and not act on it. Why? Your effort should always yield something.

I am going to research which route to downtown is best, I have to take traffic, traffic stop, shortest distant, road condition, etc into consideration. After few hours of research, I don't see which route is the best so I decide to pass, decide not to go......wtf!

 

[Sono07]

I'm super-salty about missing the under 1.5 opener at -110, even though I was home at the time. So salty I didn't even hit the -170, which I probably should have.

Honestly, I think all the various props with Tuivasa, including ultra-specific ones like Tuivasa TKO/KO round 1 at -140, have value, but I may just play Tuivasa ML to guarantee money, as I'm struggling to think of bizarre scenarios where Hunsucker wins. There is definitely value at -475, but I'm hoping it improves even further prior to the bout.

Hunsucker is just an unbelievable bum; I put a lot of money on Vaderaa, himself a bum, on -250 against him on Contender's and thought it was terrific value.

Hunsucker's striking is abysmal, on par with guys who have boxed for a month or two, his weak, slow leg kicks are a joke, he sticks his chain straight up in the air while throwing wide, telegraphed punches, just begging to be hit, and to top it all off, his grappling sucks and he has 3-4 minutes of cardio.

For all of Tuivasa's flaws, like his lack of defense or grappling, he has genuinely good offensive striking, and not only his punches, but one of the most brutal leg kicks in the heavyweight division.

Can Hunsucker get lucky and connect on a punch? Yeah, maybe, but he actually lacks power, and we've seen before that Tuivasa has a tough chin, eating some huge shots from JDS until the sequence that floored him, although even then, Tuivasa was perfectly cognizant, he simply couldn't get out of mount.

So I guess it would require an absolutely perfect counter from Hunsucker followed by perfect follow-up strikes?

I can't imagine we're talking any better than 5-10% though, which is either -1900 to -900 for Tuivasa.

Yeah I really think Harry falls apart early. His KO line is a perfect hedge too. Tai could probably win this strictly with his leg kick. I see Tuivasa -3 1/2 at -375 that looks pretty good too, I'm pretty sure the judges can take a break for this one I don't see it being a close fight.

 

[TheHouyhnhnm1]

Yes, it should not be allow. Bet minimum like $0.50 if you have to. It is 'retarded' to put so much time and effort, and not act on it. Why? Your effort should always yield something.

Oh, no.

What you are expressing is called the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy Is Ruining Your Decisions. Here's How | TIME

The way you should think of starting research is the possibility that it will result in a good bet, not the assertion that it must result in a bet regardless of whether or not you think there is any value.

I do agree that there can be something good about putting a small bet on fights so you watch them closer, but I personally get a great deal of satisfaction from KNOWING that the correct play is to pass. And tbh once I do research and get a sense of the personalities of the fighters (from interviews) that makes the fights interesting for me even if I don't have money on them. Knowing the storylines going into the fight is enough to make it fun to watch. And having $20 doesn't add that much to that.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Money coming in on Giles

Dolidze/Giles is now at even odds

 

[GigaOuts]

Oh, no.

What you are expressing is called the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy Is Ruining Your Decisions. Here's How | TIME

The way you should think of starting research is the possibility that it will result in a good bet, not the assertion that it must result in a bet regardless of whether or not you think there is any value.

I do agree that there can be something good about putting a small bet on fights so you watch them closer, but I personally get a great deal of satisfaction from KNOWING that the correct play is to pass. And tbh once I do research and get a sense of the personalities of the fighters (from interviews) that makes the fights interesting for me even if I don't have money on them. Knowing the storylines going into the fight is enough to make it fun to watch. And having $20 doesn't add that much to that.

Thank for a thoughtful responds. We are different and unique, what work for you don't work for me. It is a torture for me to watch fight to do research. It is a torture for me to watch fight without risk. I don't see it is a bad decision betting so little compare to the size on a fight I have lean on. I am betting $500 on Trevin Giles at +125, betting $25 is enough to change my mindset from torture to enjoyment. If you can enjoy the fight with nothing on the line, sure? Maybe I am wrong, a 'pass' is ok if you enjoy doing research on the fight.

I be damn if I pass on a fight or bet less than 1 unit after spending few hour doing my research.

 

[joenewbie]

I am going to research which route to downtown is best, I have to take traffic, traffic stop, shortest distant, road condition, etc into consideration. After few hours of research, I don't see which route is the best so I decide to pass, decide not to go......wtf!

If after research I see that traffic is horrible, or it's snowing badly, and it will be an extremely long trip that isn't worth the time or money (fuel cost, bus ticket cost, etc) of going then I stay home and pick another day to go to downtown when the road conditions are better. It's the very situation you described which has now caused so many people to do things online rather than in person which means they are "passing" on going out into traffic. If you MUST go downtown at that time then you need to go regardless of road conditions but that doesn't apply with betting. You don't have to bet on every fight.

 

[GigaOuts]

If after research I see that traffic is horrible, or it's snowing badly, and it will be an extremely long trip that isn't worth the time or money (fuel cost, bus ticket cost, etc) of going then I stay home and pick another day to go to downtown when the road conditions are better. It's the very situation you described which has now caused so many people to do things online rather than in person which means they are "passing" on going out into traffic. If you MUST go downtown at that time then you need to go regardless of road conditions but that doesn't apply with betting. You don't have to bet on every fight.

No, you don't have to, you are right! I am applying my own principle onto other.

This saying apply to me.
The best thing in life is gambling and winning it.
The second best thing is life is gambling and losing it.

Even if I lose all my ¼ unit bet, it is not a big deal I still enjoy it, it is like purchase a ticket to a fight BUT half the time I win too.

 

[Sono07]

How many fighters are out of Fortis tonight? Cheyanne, JP, Roman, Macy, did I miss anybody?​

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC on ESPN 21 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-on-espn-21-pbp-discussion.4171287/

 

[Stat_Collector]

Buys tried that faked head shot dq .

 

[GigaOuts]

Sure, do your research and make good decision. Once research is done and if you don't see value, it is smart to 'pass'.

BUT some people known their product and take advantage of it while you waste time and being cautious!!




I didn't make 3g, I hedge Buys at -150 and I freeroll $600 ish on Bruno.

 

[TheHouyhnhnm1]

No, you don't have to, you are right! I am applying my own principle onto other.

This saying apply to me.
The best thing in life is gambling and winning it.
The second best thing is life is gambling and losing it.

Even if I lose all my ¼ unit bet, it is not a big deal I still enjoy it, it is like purchase a ticket to a fight BUT half the time I win too.



View attachment 841602

Nice

and nice win on Silva

My biggest bet this weekend was 2,000 on Gregory Rodriguez over Al Matavao... such a good bet

Got to get the more intelligent, more skilled wrestler grappler with the BIGGEST SIZE ADVANTAGE I'VE EVER SEEN

 

[GigaOuts]

Nice win, good bet in hindsight. I bet Al Matavao. Gregory looks too old and it is 185lbs, so ko is possible. I never bet -250, even it is Jon Jones.
I only bet underdog, it make me super 'sick' if I bet -200 favor and lost. That what I did, bet $900 on Liz Carmouche at -200 to chase lost against Alexis Davis. It was painful to watch Carmouche refuse to engage.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

A sloppy guillotine that was so tight you could hear Silva gurgling?

Gamrot is a much more skilled fighter than buys?

Goddard is in on the global conspiracy to protect jp buys record?


It all makes perfect sense now.

So I took time to research both fighters and clearly saw JP demonstrate repeatedly he was not mentally tough in the way you would expect a UFC fighter to be and warned people to not put their money on the guy. I explained in detail how "he would take the easy way out" and it looks as though he did that and mounted virtually no defense after Silva hit him with a couple of good shots.

I wasnt alleging a 'conspiracy' pal, I was alleging he had 2 wins on his record that he did not earn.

Yet you make a worthless snarky post in a thread devoted to betting. It adds nothing of value, why post it other than to inflate your post count? Next time just keep the snarky comment to yourself, I hope no one lost money on JP.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

So I took time to research both fighters and clearly saw JP demonstrate repeatedly he was not mentally tough in the way you would expect a UFC fighter to be and warned people to not put their money on the guy. I explained in detail how "he would take the easy way out" and it looks as though he did that and mounted virtually no defense after Silva hit him with a couple of good shots.

I wasnt alleging a 'conspiracy' pal, I was alleging he had 2 wins on his record that he did not earn.

Yet you make a worthless snarky post in a thread devoted to betting. It adds nothing of value, why post it other than to inflate your post count? Next time just keep the snarky comment to yourself, I hope no one lost money on JP.

Wow, you’re a clown

 

[GigaOuts]

Thank for a thoughtful responds. We are different and unique, what work for you don't work for me. It is a torture for me to watch fight to do research. It is a torture for me to watch fight without risk. I don't see it is a bad decision betting so little compare to the size on a fight I have lean on. I am betting $500 on Trevin Giles at +125, betting $25 is enough to change my mindset from torture to enjoyment. If you can enjoy the fight with nothing on the line, sure? Maybe I am wrong, a 'pass' is ok if you enjoy doing research on the fight.

I be damn if I pass on a fight or bet less than 1 unit after spending few hour doing my research.

I won my 2 biggest bet in this card! I am going take break from watching fight. I will get burn out watching the whole ufc after cw and ksw.
It was close fight, got lucky a bit with Giles.

 

[GigaOuts]

The line is rarely set correctly, just because you 'believe' line is correct doesn't mean it is. Just because you don't see opportunity, it doesn't mean there isn't. Your perception might be wrong!