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- Feb 4, 2019
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ended up taping this whole card which is very rare recently lol. My thoughts on the rest of the fights:
Jordain/Erosa: Straight pass for me. Anything could happen here. Erosa is chinny yes but he has big size and reach advantage. He also said he would grapple which could be a troll, but if he does its a good pathway for him. Jordain is still green and not worth the price tag. Don't like any of the props either. Maybe live bet Jordain because he starts slow and turns it on late? Who knows.
Shore/Ludovic: Have just over a unit on over 1.5 rounds at 1.44. Thought that was pretty generous, Shore usually does his work late. Ludovic seems like a decent grappler, although not very athletic. He has never been finished and seems tough. He has his back taken in the third on Tuf and reversed it fine. Also Ricky couldn't really get much offense going in the grappling. I am not hammering it because there is lots of unknowns still. Ludovic gives me an overrated vibe and it is short notice, but Shore has had the backs of worse grapplers and they have made it to the next round. Was looking at maybe DEC or Sub prop, but don't want to be guessing.
Molly/Kim: Man was I excited for this fight, I'm seeing 'touts' laying multiple units on either side. For Kim, the argument is she has 10inches of reach which is huge, and for some reason, you just have to fade Molly. Molly's argument is she can wrestle, and Kim has been taken down by rubbish fighters like Kassem and looked like a turtle in round 3 against Grasso. The way I see it is Kim is going to give Molly a boxing match. She doesn't kick she doesn't grapple. She is a walking punching back and lacks volume. Her best win is Kassem, her other 2 wins are split decisions to Fabian ( lol ) and Kisch. Lost to Shevchenko and Pudilova. She has good power for a woman and nice straight punches, but Molly has good head movement and is great at getting into the pocket and landing looping punches. Everyone has a reach advantage over Molly, but she has only lost to grapplers so far in the UFC. She was out striking Santos who is a big and athletic girl with great striking, Santos had to grapple to win. She rocked Lipski who also has no HM but is explosive and dangerous in first. Odds are correct in my opinion, if Molly has some success wrestling then she could look like a bargain, but its low lvl WMMA. I have the tiniest sprinkle on Molly DEC, should probably cash out, but at least I know she will fight for my money and will get a boxing match.
Luigi/Pimblett: First time taping Piblett properly, I am not impressed. Kid seems like the definition of sub or bust. I understand the hype because he's is from England and his grappling is exciting and aggressive, everyone loves finishes. Also have to respect the slick back takes, bit similar to Shore, always finds a way there effortlessly. If he dosent get the sub though his cardio seems average, striking defense is atrocious and so is his offense. Wrestling seems underwhelming too although he has some tricky ways to get the fight down early. I wish there was more footage of Luigi, because I would be hammering him at this price. I know he is a blackbelt, I consider him to have better cardio, standup, way more power and better wrestling. I just dont know how he handles being on bottom or having his back taken. I mean there's a high chance he survives, few people have against Pimblett, and at that point I favour Luigi. I have half a unit on Luigi at 2.40, not sure if I will keep it. Live bet could be the safe option.
Khalil/Bukaskas: Biggest pass on the card lol. You cant trust Bukaskas as a favourite, and if you play Khalil you will be pulling your hair out watching him lose a dec unless he gets a KO. I have 0.2u to win a unit on Khalil in round 1. Not sure if I will keep it, I just thought odds were way too wide, and im getting Razak v Di Chirico vibes. Id like to see the weigh in before making decision, Khalil had a bit of loose skin around the abdomen last fight.
Aspinal/Spivak: Think the line is wide here. Got it nice and early at 3.40 before it closed in. Only have a sprinkle, im worried about that first round as there is a massive speed and athletism advantage for Aspinal. Spivak seems like a fighter that will grapple sooner if he needs to. Only ground footage I have seen of Aspinal is 2015 where Austin took him down with easy for 2 rounds. He got instant doubles, easy judo trips and he was the much smaller man. He then proceeded to get heel hooked pretty easy for my liking. Anyway, that was a long time ago, I have seen him slow down against Andrei and was getting tagged until he went for a takedown. What if he is on his back straight away in the first and has to work his way up? If Spivak doesn't get sparked early then the line will for sure be wide.
Jordain/Erosa: Straight pass for me. Anything could happen here. Erosa is chinny yes but he has big size and reach advantage. He also said he would grapple which could be a troll, but if he does its a good pathway for him. Jordain is still green and not worth the price tag. Don't like any of the props either. Maybe live bet Jordain because he starts slow and turns it on late? Who knows.
Shore/Ludovic: Have just over a unit on over 1.5 rounds at 1.44. Thought that was pretty generous, Shore usually does his work late. Ludovic seems like a decent grappler, although not very athletic. He has never been finished and seems tough. He has his back taken in the third on Tuf and reversed it fine. Also Ricky couldn't really get much offense going in the grappling. I am not hammering it because there is lots of unknowns still. Ludovic gives me an overrated vibe and it is short notice, but Shore has had the backs of worse grapplers and they have made it to the next round. Was looking at maybe DEC or Sub prop, but don't want to be guessing.
Molly/Kim: Man was I excited for this fight, I'm seeing 'touts' laying multiple units on either side. For Kim, the argument is she has 10inches of reach which is huge, and for some reason, you just have to fade Molly. Molly's argument is she can wrestle, and Kim has been taken down by rubbish fighters like Kassem and looked like a turtle in round 3 against Grasso. The way I see it is Kim is going to give Molly a boxing match. She doesn't kick she doesn't grapple. She is a walking punching back and lacks volume. Her best win is Kassem, her other 2 wins are split decisions to Fabian ( lol ) and Kisch. Lost to Shevchenko and Pudilova. She has good power for a woman and nice straight punches, but Molly has good head movement and is great at getting into the pocket and landing looping punches. Everyone has a reach advantage over Molly, but she has only lost to grapplers so far in the UFC. She was out striking Santos who is a big and athletic girl with great striking, Santos had to grapple to win. She rocked Lipski who also has no HM but is explosive and dangerous in first. Odds are correct in my opinion, if Molly has some success wrestling then she could look like a bargain, but its low lvl WMMA. I have the tiniest sprinkle on Molly DEC, should probably cash out, but at least I know she will fight for my money and will get a boxing match.
Luigi/Pimblett: First time taping Piblett properly, I am not impressed. Kid seems like the definition of sub or bust. I understand the hype because he's is from England and his grappling is exciting and aggressive, everyone loves finishes. Also have to respect the slick back takes, bit similar to Shore, always finds a way there effortlessly. If he dosent get the sub though his cardio seems average, striking defense is atrocious and so is his offense. Wrestling seems underwhelming too although he has some tricky ways to get the fight down early. I wish there was more footage of Luigi, because I would be hammering him at this price. I know he is a blackbelt, I consider him to have better cardio, standup, way more power and better wrestling. I just dont know how he handles being on bottom or having his back taken. I mean there's a high chance he survives, few people have against Pimblett, and at that point I favour Luigi. I have half a unit on Luigi at 2.40, not sure if I will keep it. Live bet could be the safe option.
Khalil/Bukaskas: Biggest pass on the card lol. You cant trust Bukaskas as a favourite, and if you play Khalil you will be pulling your hair out watching him lose a dec unless he gets a KO. I have 0.2u to win a unit on Khalil in round 1. Not sure if I will keep it, I just thought odds were way too wide, and im getting Razak v Di Chirico vibes. Id like to see the weigh in before making decision, Khalil had a bit of loose skin around the abdomen last fight.
Aspinal/Spivak: Think the line is wide here. Got it nice and early at 3.40 before it closed in. Only have a sprinkle, im worried about that first round as there is a massive speed and athletism advantage for Aspinal. Spivak seems like a fighter that will grapple sooner if he needs to. Only ground footage I have seen of Aspinal is 2015 where Austin took him down with easy for 2 rounds. He got instant doubles, easy judo trips and he was the much smaller man. He then proceeded to get heel hooked pretty easy for my liking. Anyway, that was a long time ago, I have seen him slow down against Andrei and was getting tagged until he went for a takedown. What if he is on his back straight away in the first and has to work his way up? If Spivak doesn't get sparked early then the line will for sure be wide.
