UFC Fight Night - Gane vs Volkov - Official Discussion

[Macaque]

Theres an angle to the Gane/Volkov fight that I see a lot of folks missing.

Look at Ganes "kickboxing career". He started training muy thai in 2015 after a friend of his from school (furniture school) mentioned it. Two years later a 2-0 Gane knocked out Brice Guidon under kickboxing rules. Guidon was a 6"6 GLORY vet with a win over Rico Verhoeven. A 2-0 muy thai fighter who only began training two years prior and had never fought under kickboxing rules had no business in the ring with Guidon let alone knocking the guy out.

Later that year a 5-0 Gane defeated Yassine Boughanem under muy thai rules, who was for a while from 2018-2020 the #1 ranked Super HW muy thai fighter in the world. Boughanem has won his thirteen of his last fourteen fights, his only loss in that span was to Gane. This is a guy with 136 wins, 89 KOs, and most of his recent wins have been over UFC/Bellator/GLORY washouts (so not exactly nobodies). Again, Gane in theory should not have been able to beat this guy, but he still did despite the wide disparity in experience.

Now I am not saying anyone should bet Gane, far from it, but anyone betting on Volkov solely because of a supposed edge in experience should take a step back and reexamine that wager.

None of Ganes wins makes sense in theory so trying to handicap a Gane/Volkov fight is pointless because none of it is ever going to make sense.

It’s amazing how fast he’s developed. Seems like besides all his physical gifts, Gane has a good head on his shoulders.

Anyways, still need to tape this some more.

 

[Bakayoko]

Damn,the over 2,5 is just -200 on that match,it should go through but since it's the heavyes I was hoping to get more...

 

[Kazda1]

Theres an angle to the Gane/Volkov fight that I see a lot of folks missing.

Look at Ganes "kickboxing career". He started training muy thai in 2015 after a friend of his from school (furniture school) mentioned it. Two years later a 2-0 Gane knocked out Brice Guidon under kickboxing rules. Guidon was a 6"6 GLORY vet with a win over Rico Verhoeven. A 2-0 muy thai fighter who only began training two years prior and had never fought under kickboxing rules had no business in the ring with Guidon let alone knocking the guy out.

Later that year a 5-0 Gane defeated Yassine Boughanem under muy thai rules, who was for a while from 2018-2020 the #1 ranked Super HW muy thai fighter in the world. Boughanem has won thirteen of his last fourteen fights, his only loss in that span was to Gane. This is a guy with 136 wins, 89 KOs, and most of his recent wins have been over UFC/Bellator/GLORY washouts (so not exactly nobodies). Again, Gane in theory should not have been able to beat this guy, but he still did despite the wide disparity in experience.

Now I am not saying anyone should bet Gane, far from it, but anyone betting on Volkov solely because of a supposed edge in experience should take a step back and reexamine that wager.

None of Ganes wins makes sense in theory so trying to handicap a Gane/Volkov fight purely off of the normal logic/fundamentals one would apply is pointless; because we would have had him losing every single fight of his combat sports career and he remains undefeated.

If I understand you correctly, your main point/argument is that even though this should technically be seen as a step up in competition (one in which we haven't seen Gane take in the UFC yet), that his talent/skill/athleticism level is beyond a level we aren't fully recognizing yet?


Does anyone second guess Fili enough to be bullied by Pineda? Kind of like how Pineda just stayed on top of Burns trying to wrestle? Does anyone see that type of game plan being a problem for Fili?

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Does he even care anymore?

He looked utterly disinterested and a shell of himself in his last fight vs Hill. Basically he leaned back against the cage and waited to be KO'd.

If I can get through all the technical difficulties of gambling in my country I think Boser will be my comeback bet. I loved him @ 1.69 when I first checked the line, yesterday it was 1.606 already (-165 for americans) and I still like him.
I don't trust OSP at all. He looks worse and worse every time we see him. He hasn't won a decision in over 5 years / 14 fights and he is not finishing Boser here.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

If I understand you correctly, your main point/argument is that even though this should technically be seen as a step up in competition (one in which we haven't seen Gane take in the UFC yet), that his talent/skill/athleticism level is beyond a level we aren't fully recognizing yet?


Does anyone second guess Fili enough to be bullied by Pineda? Kind of like how Pineda just stayed on top of Burns trying to wrestle? Does anyone see that type of game plan being a problem for Fili?

No, you don't understand me correctly, which means I did a poor job explaining the premise and rationale. Let me try to be more clear.

We can draw parallels from Ganes kickboxing career, which consisted of seven professional fights, to his current situation in the UFC against Volkov.

Gane after two years of training Muay Thai, and at 2-0 professionally, knocked out Brice Guidon in a match under kickboxing rules. Guidon was a 6"6 GLORY veteran that held a win over Rico Verhoeven. Guidon was on a losing skid at the time, near the end of his career, and his best days were behind him. However, that was Ganes first professional match under kickboxing rules. He did not deserve to be sharing the ring with Guidon, so for him to knock Guidon out is incomprehensible, if we apply normal standards to Ganes abilities.

Similarly, later that same year at 5-0 professionally Gane fought Yassine Boughanem under Muay Thai rules, and won via decision. Boughanem currently is 136-33 with 89 KOs and a year or so after he fought Gane climbed to the #1 ranked Super HW Muay Thai fighter in the world, a ranking he held onto for nearly two years (2018-2020). Gane is the only opponent to beat Boughanem in his last fourteen fights. It is incomprehensible that Gane was able to defeat Boughanem less than three years after he began training Muay Thai if we apply normal standards to Ganes abilities.

The point being we saw during Ganes kickboxing "career" he defeated opponents that in one instance had 100+ more professional fights than him. He has proven that intangibles such as veteran status and experience are not factors that will help opponents defeat him; even though under normal standards they would be very significant factors.

Gane is not an "athlete" that we can apply conventional logic and wisdom too when handicapping, until we see him lose, because his entire career has consisted of aberrations that are unlikely to ever be repeated.

 

[StewDogg11]

Torn on Jaynes or Pineda for the last spot on my Draft Kings team. Went with Pineda as I think his legkicks could give Fili’s skinny little legs some issues. I also don’t think he has quite the technical skill/power of Cub Swanson who put Pineda away in his last fight.

 

[2020Tracked]

Like the under 2.5 or tye ends ITD in the Pineda/Fili fight, Pineda has been to decision once in the last 7 years, no reason for him to go to another one now

 

[Thesnake101]

Does anyone second guess Fili enough to be bullied by Pineda? Kind of like how Pineda just stayed on top of Burns trying to wrestle? Does anyone see that type of game plan being a problem for Fili?

Don't think that would really be a path to victory for Pineda given how Fili looked against Bryce. He got taken down a whole lot, but he did his best to not settle into position the whole fight, and I doubt his gas tank would suffer as much as Burn's did.

Now, Fili has been hurt and dropped in a bunch of his wins, like the Jury one, so Daniel could find his chin early if he's on the sauce he was for his PFL showings. That being said, Andre's range is probably too much for him.

 

[mkess101]

If I can get through all the technical difficulties of gambling in my country I think Boser will be my comeback bet. I loved him @ 1.69 when I first checked the line, yesterday it was 1.606 already (-165 for americans) and I still like him.
I don't trust OSP at all. He looks worse and worse every time we see him. He hasn't won a decision in over 5 years / 14 fights and he is not finishing Boser here.

Agree. OSP looks like a jobber finishing out his career.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Done some tape for Dalby/Means. Think Dalby is a wise bet as an underdog here. I don't see 38 year old means coming into his 46th fight being able to handle Dalby's movement. I think Dalby is being undervalued because of his ugly loss to a much smaller Jesse Ronson. It seemed like Dalby fought contrary to his usual movement-based approach, and tried to bully the smaller man coming in on short notice, which led to him being comfortable trading shots in the pocket, being more aggressive than usual coming forward with his punches.

I don't think we'll see that here against Means, a much larger fighter. I don't really see Means winning unless he catches him with a bomb, but it's not like Means has huge 1 punch KO power.

I think Dalby wins a decision, or maybe even finishes him. The odds, in my opinion, are backwards here.

Dalby's movement and combinations are going to give Means trouble. Means could maybe threaten with his grappling, but unless he gets a submission, which seems possible but unlikely, I don't think he does anything more than maybe steals a round with it.

Would be glad to hear anyone's disagreements on this one, unless I'm missing something this seems like Dalby should be the one favoured around -150 instead of means.

 

[Shelter]

Not going to be too active on this event, but I’m parlaying Rakmonov and Avila.

Prazeres has too much going against him between his age, the layoff, and his predictability. Throw that against a talented, experienced young finisher, no thanks. For Stoliarenko, her struggles with the weight cut make me doubt she’ll be able to impose her will on Avila, who has been preparing for this bout for a long time when you include the camp leading up to their cancelled fight.

Switching out Avila for Alves, much more confident in him and the line’s better

 

[Val Dewar]

Anyone here play spread bets for MMA? They're not that big yet but various books including betonline have them, they've been quite good to me in massive mismatches to shorten the odds on the favorite (Leon, Izzy, Usman, Valentina).

I typed a whole big thing out explaining how they work and explaining why I like Rahkmonov -3.5 spread this week but then I accidentally hit an ad and when I came back my comment was gone and I'm too tired and frustrated to type it out again. Maybe in the morning.

 

[Stat_Collector]

OSP has had bad cardio for a while now tbh. Waiting for the ko or some weird one off submission has been his thing for sometime. Don't know why I expect Boser to outstrike him fairly easily

Not high on boser , lost to Andrei. Osp is not the best boxer but he can pose the threat of submission and get the same amount strikes . He has more tools to convince the judges he is trying to win the fight. I expect osp to clinch and attempt takedowns , wall and stall. Clinch game is solid. Tanner has a slight boxing edge, but i like osp as the more experienced fighter. I think the jamall fight got most ppl fading osp , but he is a game fighter and has more combat tested fight against elite level fighters in jon jones etc.

 

[mkess101]

Anyone here play spread bets for MMA? They're not that big yet but various books including betonline have them, they've been quite good to me in massive mismatches to shorten the odds on the favorite (Leon, Izzy, Usman, Valentina).

I typed a whole big thing out explaining how they work and explaining why I like Rahkmonov -3.5 spread this week but then I accidentally hit an ad and when I came back my comment was gone and I'm too tired and frustrated to type it out again. Maybe in the morning.

Played them on 5d forever until they stopped servicing American customers.

 

[mkess101]

Not high on boser , lost to Andrei. Osp is not the best boxer but he can pose the threat of submission and get the same amount strikes . He has more tools to convince the judges he is trying to win the fight. I expect osp to clinch and attempt takedowns , wall and stall. Clinch game is solid. Tanner has a slight boxing edge, but i like osp as the more experienced fighter. I think the jamall fight got most ppl fading osp , but he is a game fighter and has more combat tested fight against elite level fighters in jon jones etc.

He looked absolutely the opposite of a "game fighter" vs Hill though. Literally the EXACT opposite. It's not him losing that's the concern really. It's that he looked every part the guy who was there for a paycheck and didn't care if he won or lost.

For a younger guy it's concerning but not as much so, as it could be a horrible weight cut, bad camp, illness, etc. For a guy who's in the sunset of his career, it's a HUGE red flag. I never want my $ on an older guy who really may not care at all anymore.

 

[Deleted member 581330]

Not high on boser , lost to Andrei. Osp is not the best boxer but he can pose the threat of submission and get the same amount strikes . He has more tools to convince the judges he is trying to win the fight. I expect osp to clinch and attempt takedowns , wall and stall. Clinch game is solid. Tanner has a slight boxing edge, but i like osp as the more experienced fighter. I think the jamall fight got most ppl fading osp , but he is a game fighter and has more combat tested fight against elite level fighters in jon jones etc.

I can definitely see where you are coming from but I think OSP is just the completely wrong side to take in this fight especially at the current prices.

I agree with everyone who has been questioning the motivation and will to win of OSP, it really does seem likely that he is just in it for the money at this stage of his career based on his recent fights. And it's absurd that he is moving up to heavyweight-the most dangerous division to move up to-from a 205 fight with a week and a half notice. No fighter who actually gives a fuck about winning would take that fight and it only further suggests where his motivation lies. And if we speculate about who is more motivated to win this fight, Boser must have 2-3x the motivation that OSP does. He was touted as a heavyweight prospect not even a year ago and now his hype is completely deflated with two back to back close decision losses. He is young and hungry to prove himself again and get back into the spotlight. With tape alone I can definitely see why you'd like OSP here, but these outside factors are far too great to ignore.

Also, if you like OSP because you expect him to impose a wrestle heavy gameplan you have to consider that he will be considerably outsized here and not let the close Latifi fight sway your feelings. Latifi is one of the strongest motherfuckers in the entire roster and his entire gameplan revolves around clinching and taking the fight to the ground. I am not confident in the least that OSP will be able to replicate what Latifi did to Boser.

 

[Kazda1]

I think OSP cares, I just think he doesn't do much if someone's taking the fight to him. If you put him on the defensive, it's your fight to lose pretty much is the way it looks to me.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He looked absolutely the opposite of a "game fighter" vs Hill though. Literally the EXACT opposite. It's not him losing that's the concern really. It's that he looked every part the guy who was there for a paycheck and didn't care if he won or lost.

For a younger guy it's concerning but not as much so, as it could be a horrible weight cut, bad camp, illness, etc. For a guy who's in the sunset of his career, it's a HUGE red flag. I never want my $ on an older guy who really may not care at all anymore.

Historically when a fighter comes off a loss and takes a new fight a week later, 9x of 10 they lose. This looks like a last minute favor on a burned out fighter trying to keep his job and promised future fights(I'm referring to Boser) we saw this with Ferreira vs Gregor (it was a month time but still close) and the Hispanic kid that fought Ode Osbourne.

Tanner is burned out and probably took time off to heal. I don't care if he barely got hit, his ass is still sore and he is fighting a fresh fighter is coming in sharper and healthier.

And osp tried to beat Jamall. Several times Jamall cracked him and osp didn't fold, I remember cringing hard at the painful blast to the face and thinking osp would fold sooner,so I don't think he is coming for a check, at hw he wobbled been rothwell at the end. He has decent power and probably wants to climb the ranks of hw so he can meet Jon again.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I can definitely see where you are coming from but I think OSP is just the completely wrong side to take in this fight especially at the current prices.

I agree with everyone who has been questioning the motivation and will to win of OSP, it really does seem likely that he is just in it for the money at this stage of his career based on his recent fights. And it's absurd that he is moving up to heavyweight-the most dangerous division to move up to-from a 205 fight with a week and a half notice. No fighter who actually gives a fuck about winning would take that fight and it only further suggests where his motivation lies. And if we speculate about who is more motivated to win this fight, Boser must have 2-3x the motivation that OSP does. He was touted as a heavyweight prospect not even a year ago and now his hype is completely deflated with two back to back close decision losses. He is young and hungry to prove himself again and get back into the spotlight. With tape alone I can definitely see why you'd like OSP here, but these outside factors are far too great to ignore.

Also, if you like OSP because you expect him to impose a wrestle heavy gameplan you have to consider that he will be considerably outsized here and not let the close Latifi fight sway your feelings. Latifi is one of the strongest motherfuckers in the entire roster and his entire gameplan revolves around clinching and taking the fight to the ground. I am not confident in the least that OSP will be able to replicate what Latifi did to Boser.

I think his motivation is to keep his job. As I stated above, this is a favor for Dana white coming in sore and burned out from a week ago.

 

[mkess101]

Historically when a fighter comes off a loss and takes a new fight a week later, 9x of 10 they lose. This looks like a last minute favor on a burned out fighter trying to keep his job and promised future fights(I'm referring to Boser) we saw this with Ferreira vs Gregor (it was a month time but still close) and the Hispanic kid that fought Ode Osbourne.

Tanner is burned out and probably took time off to heal. I don't care if he barely got hit, his ass is still sore and he is fighting a fresh fighter is coming in sharper and healthier.

And osp tried to beat Jamall. Several times Jamall cracked him and osp didn't fold, I remember cringing hard at the painful blast to the face and thinking osp would fold sooner,so I don't think he is coming for a check, at hw he wobbled been rothwell at the end. He has decent power and probably wants to climb the ranks of hw so he can meet Jon again.

He has a good chin sure. To me that's different than actually trying to win and giving everything you have. He basically backed up to the cage and waited to be KO'd.