Maybe. CDF doesn't telegraph his punches as much as he used to, but he still is mainly using them (not always, but mostly) to close distance and set up getting ahold of his opponent. And Dariush is still at least his equal in grappling and is bigger and stronger. I do think you're right about cardio, Beneil likely only has 10 minutes worth if the fight is high paced. That is something to consider, but if Dariush does win the first 2 rounds but then gasses, CDF would need a finish. Not impossible at all, but I wouldn't want to bank on it. I don't think Dariush should be some sort of massive favorite, but I do favor him a bit.