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UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Jan 24, 2021.

  1. BigSteve Green Belt

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    Ye I agree. Nothing really concrete that jumps out at me as of yet, but lots of dog lines are off in my opinion. Choi, Edwards and Guida especially. Guida the only one I will keep pre bet.
     
  2. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    I got zalal at -150. I’ll have to decide whether to arb or not

    took shots on Askar, day and jaynes.

    think there are many lines off, you just have to pick your shots and wagering amounts appropriately.
     
  3. SolarSeiko Purple Belt

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    im not saying to replicate blaydes' gameplan. overeem is good enough in the clinch to do trips. i am def not saying overeem is going to land 14+ takedowns. im talking about a few clinch takedowns and eventual GnP
     
  4. SolarSeiko Purple Belt

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    ppl also thought walt harris was going to destroy overeem. shit happens right? every fight is different.
    bigi boy is a motherfucker too. legit impressed by his cardio in that fight.
     
  5. Hellowhosthat Gold Belt

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    Yeah, but if you're looking for patterns for betting purposes that's not the best line of logic imo.
     
  6. SolarSeiko Purple Belt

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    its a gamble man. the "pattern" led to everyone including me to think that Conor was going to KO dustin...and yeah. you might not agree with it but i dont feel like -175 volkov is worth my bet
     
    rille31 likes this.
  7. Hellowhosthat Gold Belt

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    Sure, but if you're going to bet on your gut (I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that) then I don't see what's to discuss. If you're looking at the evidence for this fight, then the logic is pretty clear imo, obviously that doesn't mean that's always how the fight is going to turn out though.
     
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  8. SolarSeiko Purple Belt

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    yeah on paper. volkov should win. i already said that. and like u said, paper doesnt always translate over into the fight. So many instances where fighters who should have lost didn't at all and by no means of a fluke. Frankie Edgar vs Yair was a good one. i dont think its pretty clear logic that volkov wins this. oddsmakers dont agree with that statement either. otherwise he'd be at -400
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2021
  9. benebox Black Belt

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    I have to play Edwards at +210, it's probably going to be a close fight where Edwards gets held against the cage for long periods of time but lands the better shots.
     
    guaton and svmr_db like this.
  10. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Marion tested covid
     
  11. stipeszn Green Belt

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    Frankie has landed 4 of the last 37 takedowns he has shot going back to 2017, I think Corey is getting him at the right time
     
    2020Tracked likes this.
  12. sebixxx White Belt

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    I dont know if this is the right place but i cannot create a new thread so maybe someone could help me:
    I cannot see the upcomming mma events on bet 365 even the ones i already placed bets on are gone.
    Boxing is fine tough. Has anybody an idea whats going on?
    Thank you
     
  13. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    I just logged in, I see all the events. Perhaps you should try logging in on another device or browser. If that doesn't work you should call the customer support line.
     
  14. sebixxx White Belt

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    i tried two phones and two pc with different ip addresses. I cant find any news about mma being blocked from betting here in germany.
    Will contact support.
     
  15. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    James Krause' picks:

    - Volkov (small play)

    possible to add to parlays

    - Youseff Zalal
    - Cody Stamann
    - Timur Valiev
    - Devonte Smith (also says the under)
    - Ferreira (also likes o2.5)
    - Procopia / McCann o2.5

    Nick Kalikas' picks

    - Ferreira
    - Procopio

    parlay
    - Timur Valiev
    - Youseff Zalal
     
  16. Shotcy Blue Belt

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    I meen I see value in Edgar and Overeem. Will be betting both. I was thinking Johnson is a lock but people have pointed out a few things thats holding me back.
     
    theTKDguy likes this.
  17. Invictis Brown Belt

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    I think yall forgot how good Johnson is, despite him throwing fights.

    Guida can't do anything that the people have beaten Johnson recently did.

    Loses to a bomb by Emett with 2 minutes left after being up 2-0, gives his back to a better BJJ player than Guida in Elkins. Stevie Ray loss was the worst, but I'd rate him higher than Guida.

    I think the line is justified, as are MJ's KO and rd1 props.
     
    Dooze likes this.
  18. Spath Black Belt

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    MJ is the better fighter, I don’t think people are arguing that. It’s just that sometimes he’s on and sometimes he’s off.

    How is Elkins a ”better BJJ player”? He’s a grinder, pretty much like Guida. Guida is the one with a lot more submission wins. I’d say neither are ”BJJ players”, they’ve added some submissions to their grinding wrestling style.

    Guida is a sizeable underdog here and has a clear path to win this one, albeit chances are MJ wins most of the time.
     
  19. Invictis Brown Belt

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    Guida isn't submitting Johnson here.

    Look at his sub victories -- the only someone notable sub win in the past 5 years is over Gomi, and we all know Gomi has dogshit BJJ, and had a foot out the door when he fought Guida.

    Elkins subbed Johnson and Garagorri, both way more notable than any sub wins that Guida has in his entire career.

    Yes, Johnson does show up and look like shit at times, but not against fighters of Guida's caliber. This is the biggest step down in MJ's career bar none.

    Guida likes to engage with his opponents, and despite not being KO'd since Ortega hit him with a vicious knee, there's a good chance he goes to sleep here.

    If he gets into a brawl with Johnson, Johnson has the precision, speed, and power advantage over Guida.

    If anything, if you're going to bet on Guida, do it after rd1. Johnson never loses round 1, has the highest chance to finish him in the first, and usually falters in rounds 2/3. The line could be crazy on Guida after rd1, +500 or better.

    MJ is odd for sure though. He's talented as fuck, but recently he just loses his mental after round 1. He doesn't gas, but he just makes dumb mistakes. Dominated RD1 vs Elkins. Dominated RD1 vs Ray. Dominated rds 1/2 vs Emmett.

    I just see Guida moving forward like he always does and getting clipped and going down. I can't hate on people wanting to fade MJ, but I don't think this is the fight for it. And if you do, live bet it after rd1.
     
  20. Spath Black Belt

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    I’m not saying Guida is submitting MJ, I’m saying he has a clear chance to win and I wouldn’t bet on MJ at these odds knowing what we know.

    Submitting Garagorri, a no-name Uruguayan UFC reject, is a better sub win than anything Guida ever had? Oh come on, man. Gomi was 32-6 at the time and is a legend.

    I agree that MJ is at best in his fights early, round one MJ is very, very good. Guida’s best chances are later, most likely decision win for surviving rd 1 and being hyperactive in rounds 2 and 3. Live betting late in round 1 or after round 1 should be something to look at!

    Best of luck!
     
    benebox and Sono07 like this.

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