Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Jan 24, 2021.
This is the wae
I kinda see it as either Guida finds a way to grapple fuck or he loses. No way Guida is competitive standing MJ will have a significant speed advantage. MJ could literally just jab all night for the W. Problem is MJ has horrible fight IQ so he could win 2 rounds easily and then shit the bed.
Anybody can make an argument for Pantoja Kape line tightening to -115 ? Or is this just a gift if you can get Pantoja at even money... were in the small cage again so that helps Kate, but gota think this is Pantojas fight. I haven't bet this fight yet, may not bet it... but I'm leaning Pantoja
I think I'm going with Dariush, Pantoja, Edgar, and Reem. I see the obvious paths
Personally, Pantoja is my most confident play on this card. He has fought the overall better competition and Kape has shown he can have trouble with good grapplers.
I find it odd that Johnson is favored where he is at but the fight ending ITD is +150. I realize Johnson can take a decision, but those probabilities don't add up to me. Personally, I think there is value in the ITD. Guida doesn't get KOed often, but most of the time he gets subbed is because he got hit and shoots from outside. I also think Guida has been pretty aggressive on the ground recently. If he has Johnson down, I think he'll be looking for opportunities for subs.
Extremely meaningless stat, Edgar uses non-committal TD attempts to setup strikes. He might have 'attempted' 8 vs Cub for example but he never really committed cause he didn't need to, the TD threat meant he could cruise striking. Sandhagen has been takendown by literally everyone he's fought in the UFC including bums like Arnett. He's also been caught in deep subs repeatedly. Unless you think Edgar has worse wrestling than someone like Arnett (which would be ridiculous) then he's very live to get takedowns here. Even in his last fight he got Pedro down twice which is much more than good grapplers like Sterling, Caraway or Brett Johns could manage against him.
Everyone made weight
MMA Wetten sind mit dem neuen Glücksspielvertrag ab 2021 in Deutschland veboten, weshalb habe ich noch nicht herausgefunden. Hast du schon eine Lösung, um weiter wetten zu können?
If it goes to the mat i think it would be over quickly for Kape. First/Second round sub ITD for Pantoja seems pretty good. Kape has a good chance for a Ko if he survives the round.
I am on Volkov by Ko for 2,30
Reason being, I like Volkov, and Overeem does not get beat up for 5 rounds. His last decision loss was in 2005 against Minotouro.
MAYBE you can see it again if you change the language from German to English.
That's actually the case for me at WilliamHill, if I change the language setting to German then I cannot access any UFC betting options.
The hell is all over Jaynes’ head/neck?
UFC (@UFC) Tweeted:
NO SHORTAGE OF ACTION
@Cors_Life vs @FrankieEdgar is a lock to deliver on #ESPNPlus https://t.co/Y5u8yx9vO6
Edgar already going for the takedown lol
Overeem 5u @ +100
Edgar 5.75u @ +350
Dariush 5u @ +100
Guida 3u @ +180
Johnson vs Guida does not go the distance 2u @ +137
Joselyne Edwards 2u @ +188
Looks like I'm all in on underdogs this card.
With a bit of luck you won’t go 0/6
Just kidding, some of those are tasty odds. Best of luck to you and all the sherbettors! It’s great to have some good fights on again.
How is pantoja not the favorite again?
some of these lines are real head scratchers
how are people betting Karol Rosa at -240? She has a decent jab and straight for about 1 round, zero head movement, mediocre cardio etc there’s no way she ends up looking like -240 unless she knocks Edwards out in round 1
What's up everyone. I don't have a ton of thoughts on this card but here are the few I have:
I like Volkov straight up but no way as a 2-1 favorite. Fight should be capped closer to even, maybe Volkov -140 to -150. Can't blame anyone betting 'Reem. His reflexes still look good for the most part, although him getting dropped and almost finished early vs Harris 2 fights ago is I guess a little concerning. Volkov looked great vs Harris, kinda expect 'Reem to mix in a TD here and there. He's obviously a fraction the wrestler that Blaydes is, but Reem does have some nasty gnp IF he can get Volkov down. I expect Volkov to win I guess, I think his volume and length will end up being too much, but it's closer than the odds say imo.
I think Sandhagen smokes Frankie but again, odds just way too steep. Corey is all action, he messed up vs Aljo and I think overestimated his ability to get out of a bad spot vs a top tier grappler. For what it's worth, Sterling may literally be the most underrated fighter in the sport. If not for getting caught with one Moraes head kick, I think he'd be champ right now and creeping up p4p boards. I think we'll find that out vs Yan too. Back to this fight though, Frankie did look good vs Munhoz but he's a much different challenge than Sandhagen. Corey is long and diverse with his striking, Munhoz wants to fight in a phone booth. Frankie can likely land a TD or two, which is why I think the line is too wide. Corey is of course aggressive and dangerous off his back but Frankie has seen everything when it comes to the grappling aspect of MMA. There's at least a reasonable chance Frankie steals a couple rounds via TD and control. I do think Corey catches him and finishes at some point, but -375 is a bit nuts. Probably -200 to -250 makes sense. Frankie at +300 or better has a little value imo.
Guida/MJ--IDK. MJ is a flake. Yeah he **should** be able to pick Guida apart from the outside and maybe even find a killshot. But...he just finds ways to lose. And Guida is a vet, he likely knows his path to victory. Maybe he does his bounce around with hair flying thing and thinks he can box with MJ, but I tend to think Guida will try to lean on his wrestling. MJ's TDD against traditional wrestlers may be a bit underrated, but again, the guy just flakes out in fights at some point too often. I could seem MJ boat racing Guida for 2 rounds, getting overaggressive and Guida taking him down and locking in an arm triangle for a sub with like a minute to go LMAO. It's just how MJ's fights go. Hard pass for betting imo.
Dariush/CDF-Not sure exactly what's so different from last time? Ferreira wants to grapple...great. Dariush is at least his equal, and is bigger and stronger. He controlled the grappling in their first fight, I don't get why he won't do it again. And he's the more polished striker imo. Momentum matters and CDF has a lot of it, but I have no clue why he opened the favorite. Those who got Beneil at dog odds, kudos. I cap him probably -150ish, maybe even -160 to -170. I still think he has value where he is.
The rest of the card...no real strong thoughts. Rodriguez and Smith probably get KO's, although maybe Jaynes being slightly overlooked? Benitez just looked amazing against him, but I don't think Jaynes sucks. Meatball probably wins a decision. Valiev should handle Day but -3xx, meh.
I'm excited to have some fights to watch, esp a 14 fight card. I don't even care that a few are fights I don't care about. I'm in the upper MW and it's gonna be a high of like 4 degrees today, below zero with the wind chill. Good night to put fights on and have a drink or two. Maybe cash a big prize on DK.
I think you are selling CDF a bit short, he is Not the same fighter he was in the first fight. His striking has improved leaps and bounds and physically he looks a lot better as well. Dariush throws harder and has more kicks, but they are all single shots. If Dariush goes for broke in the first I believe he might gass and CDF will drown him with the pressure.
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