UFC Fight Night - Strickland vs Hermansson - Official discussion

thats a lot of 'safe' picks in mma my man haha. Wish it was that easy to make a fortune
This last bellator i did go 8 of 10

lately ive just been more accurate and i just accept losing sometimes, I’ve been adding more footage watching to my predictions. I think Sometimes you just have to roll the dice and either go for broke or win big. Im sure one or two of these guys will drop the ball, they always do, but i feel like im having a streak lately, i predicted Francis decision, Rashad, and Bader . One of my best weeks since last year. Im paying more attention to form and techniques over only resume alone.
 
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I think you're vastly overestimating Stoliarenko's grappling. Davis has only been tapped once, and that came from having McMann on top.

If Juljia hunts for armbars all night, she's just going to waste energy.
"vastly overestimating?" lol k
 
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I really like this young prospect.
His boxing is nice and crisp, he has a stiff jab , and good composure and timing. I'm hoping he takes the fight via points.
 
Saw Jailton by KO at +300 earlier today. 2 out of Danilo's 3 losses have come via KO, and he's a fellow grappler so his sub defense might hold enough for Jailton to just pound him out. Definitely worth it imo.
 
This wouldn't be the first time Hawes drops the ball as a favorite. Honestly, I think he's one of the most overrated guys out there. He either sparks Alvey early or this fight quickly turns into a coin flip.

He flaked and got too comfortable vs Curtis for sure, but his boxing looked damn good prior to him getting caught. If he boxes and moves like that here, Alvey will look like he's stuck in mud. Curtis is eons better than Alvey at this point imo, just looked great vs Allen and was likely underrated going into the Hawes fight. Hawes had won 7 in a row prior to that one, including 2 decisions in his 2 most recent wins. So I don't think it's hard to envision him just outclassing Sam for 15 minutes.

Again, not advocating paying -350 or worse but I do think it's likely this looks like a mismatch at this point even if it goes the distance.
 
Defensively no, but we did see his wrestling against Pickett. We know he is comfortable wrestling a big guy like jaime. And him having grappling background means he had to defend takedowns during his wrestling days, means he has logged in massive hours of takedown defense, and state champion wrestler is a high prestige.

Brandon Allen was coming off a loss to Sean and went full focus on standup, he employed a solid leg kick to Sorianos lead leg , that was a good stradegy, that is just testiment to brendon allen having superior experience. He had been in more competitive fights and got himself a decision win. Nick doesn’t have that experience, nick doesn’t have the finish rate(against ufc talent), nick doesnt have the size, nick doesnt have the standup of even a Brendon Allen, can you honestly tell me what would happen to soriano if nick gets him down? You think he cant scramble back up? If Nick had submitted Cody and the dwcs guy i would rate his submission offense a threat to soriano, but he did not do that, his best submission wins are the following records: 1-3 , 1-11, 1-5, his tko wins 1-1 , 0-3

when you compare this to the ko wins of soriano”s against just Dusko alone, it out shines every thing nick has accomplished. Soriano has natural power, durability and combate tested. His lead hook and overhand right is the stuff you find commonly in somoan fighters like Hunt and David Tua, its why you see so many talented polynesians that get into boxing.
hard to hold the DWCS guy against him since Maximov had a last minute move from 205 to 265, Maximov was 209 I think and Oscar Cota was 260. Brundage may be green but he's built like a gorilla. Think its a dog or pass for me, cant trust Puna as a big fav
 
hard to hold the DWCS guy against him since Maximov had a last minute move from 205 to 265, Maximov was 209 I think and Oscar Cota was 260. Brundage may be green but he's built like a gorilla. Think its a dog or pass for me, cant trust Puna as a big fav
125+ ko prop bet. He’s already deflowered so many chins with a ko. I dont see nick doing any better. There are levels to this, Nick is going to find out what happens when set the difficulty level from normal to very hard.
 
I'm just gonna look at the over there if anything. Sam's historically tough to take down.

I think I might like Alvey's chances a bit better vs Allen than I did vs Hawes. Stylistically a better matchup, Allen's striking is basic and he's not hard to hit. And like you said, Alvey has always had pretty good TDD.
 
I think I might like Alvey's chances a bit better vs Allen than I did vs Hawes. Stylistically a better matchup, Allen's striking is basic and he's not hard to hit. And like you said, Alvey has always had pretty good TDD.
It's hard to say because both Brendan and Phil have their own drawbacks, but I think Allen has a much better chance of surviving a possible Alvey hail mary.

Sam's just a guy that seems too content to do just enough to make things murky but not actually win I think.
 
This wouldn't be the first time Hawes drops the ball as a favorite. Honestly, I think he's one of the most overrated guys out there. He either sparks Alvey early or this fight quickly turns into a coin flip.
Allen is way to heavy of a favorite for me. Even after Allen's loss. I dont mind taking a chance Alvey.

This fight match screams Draw. I suggest those betting it do it with caution. But your right this fight could be a turning and recovery for Allen after his loss or a possible draw.

"Majority Draw"
Dec For Allen.
 
He flaked and got too comfortable vs Curtis for sure, but his boxing looked damn good prior to him getting caught. If he boxes and moves like that here, Alvey will look like he's stuck in mud. Curtis is eons better than Alvey at this point imo, just looked great vs Allen and was likely underrated going into the Hawes fight. Hawes had won 7 in a row prior to that one, including 2 decisions in his 2 most recent wins. So I don't think it's hard to envision him just outclassing Sam for 15 minutes.

Again, not advocating paying -350 or worse but I do think it's likely this looks like a mismatch at this point even if it goes the distance.

With the fight cancelled now it's sort of moot, but I predict we'll see Hawes as a dud. He has a lot of trouble pacing himself and he has chin issues or bad reactions to be on the receiving end. His redeeming quality is that he does have wrestling to fall back on even when gassed. I just think he's a classic case of a guy who needs to be the hammer and can fold when it doesn't go his way. With how large the roster is now, there are definitely winnable fights even if it goes deep, but I don't see him making a splash at all long term.
 
With the fight cancelled now it's sort of moot, but I predict we'll see Hawes as a dud. He has a lot of trouble pacing himself and he has chin issues or bad reactions to be on the receiving end. His redeeming quality is that he does have wrestling to fall back on even when gassed. I just think he's a classic case of a guy who needs to be the hammer and can fold when it doesn't go his way. With how large the roster is now, there are definitely winnable fights even if it goes deep, but I don't see him making a splash at all long term.
I was impressed by his fight with daukaus. He showed a lot of heart and durability. I was on daukaus in that fight and was very surprised
 

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