UFC FN 177 PBP/Discussion

Could def see Waterson subbing Hill here with a backtake like she did vs JJ.
Overall no research for this, but would expect Hill to win first 1-2 rounds, then slow down, and Waterson to look better in round 4-5 so might be some good liveodds on waterson.
 
Cannot pick a winner on this one. Just going to pick Waterson based on her experience and she will be hungry to get the win.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Could def see Waterson subbing Hill here with a backtake like she did vs JJ.
Overall no research for this, but would expect Hill to win first 1-2 rounds, then slow down, and Waterson to look better in round 4-5 so might be some good liveodds on waterson.
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Waterson up to 3.75 during round 1 def liked lb more on her than prefight. prefight hill, lb waterso, secure profit, thats what i like. expecting hill to fade and odds lower
how can you justify hill such a big fav already? Started to trying to bet these dogs when odd are just off, will see how pays off long term.
Sometimes its worth waiting if odds keep widening just pay attention a lot to hit it as soon as it goes down a bit or you think it wont go much or any higher.
 
Surprisingly a good fight. Seems like they had beef. Lets go hottieeee
 
Looks like Waterson only chance here is Hill will gas later on. Hill is clearly stronger.
 
Hill rd 1, but man she isn't all that economical with her energy expenditure. A lot of wasted movement, will be impressed if she keeps that up for 25 minutes.
 
Carmouche/Bennett spoiler:

carmouche wins via round 3 RNC, in a fight which was 1-1 going into round 3
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Waterson up to 3.75 during round 1 def liked lb more on her than prefight. prefight hill, lb waterso, secure profit, thats what i like. expecting hill to fade and odds lower
how can you justify hill such a big fav already? Started to trying to bet these dogs when odd are just off, will see how pays off long term.
Sometimes its worth waiting if odds keep widening just pay attention a lot to hit it as soon as it goes down a bit or you think it wont go much or any higher.
Click to expand...

Win or lose, excellent LB imo. Absolutely value there, it's a total unknown if Hill can keep this up over the course of this fight. Maybe she can, but you still got value.
 
mkess101 said:
Win or lose, excellent LB imo. Absolutely value there, it's a total unknown if Hill can keep this up over the course of this fight. Maybe she can, but you still got value.
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The fight reminded me - in terms of cardio - Hooker/Dustin, hill probably clearly winning round 1-2, and waterson being very live round 4-5. I didnt pull the trigger on dustin back them, so now trying to do it. I do favor hill though i think waterson is on her way out, and hill on the way up. I do track bets and want to build a good third party track but that ruins actual money making ive noticed - i think the optimal way is to combine it - i.e bet hill prefight because you expect crazy odds on waterson very fast - and that happened.

Only one data set but we see it so often i feel. So pre betting to help with live/vice versa seems very solid. It can be compared like a hedge with a prop imo.
 
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