Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.
Yes the crowd will give him extra boost
Here's some FACTS about Weidman vs Gastelum:
Weidman has a 5 inch height advantage, and a 7 inch reach advantage. That's the biggest height and reach advantage Weidman has had over someone in his entire UFC career.
Weidman has taken down EVERY opponent he has fought in the UFC at least once. Gastelum hasn't landed a takedown since he fought Neil Magny in 2015.
Chris lost to Rockhold, Romero and Mousasi. All three of those men are ACTUAL top 5 middleweights and would have beaten Gastelum as well.
Gastelum beat washed up Hendricks, 2 year layoff and semi retired Tim Kennedy, and a saggy, deflated, old man who needed a service dog just to make it to the fight in Belfort.
This is the first time Gastelum is fighting a top 10 middleweight and I think it will show. It's easy to count the Chris out after losing 3 in row, but he literally lost to 3 of the best middleweights in the world.
short of some exaggeration in the 3 opponents gastelum has beaten, i can't really argue any of this... except, maybe, to say that gastelum hasn't tried to take people down or he might've been able to, to address that bullet point
How do all those facts have anything to do with a 5 round fight between these 2?
So they've beaten the same level of competition. Gast has never faced the 3 guys that beat weidman(so what). But we know for sure they would all 3 beat Gast in 5 rounders(we actually don't)
How does any of that have anything to do in this 5 rounder. It's like saying Gast beat Vitor better than Weidman. Or Gast beat Kennedy WAY better than Romero
I don't think opponents matter much here. I think number of rounds does.
I bet Maia over Masvidal. But I wouldn't have if it was 5. Likewise I'd bet Weidman here if it was 3. But it's not a 3 rounder. And Kelvin in gonna be fresh likely in the 4th and 5th.
Also before the Weidman fight many were saying how Weidman was gonna wrestlefuck Moose because Mo did it. Jacare did it. And Lyoto Fucking Machida did it. But Chris with all his injuries isn't quite the wrestler he was and he's never had crazy top control. Dudes get up on him and that's another reason he gasses
i don't think there's any question that 5 > 3 is better for gastelum here
That is pure speculation, not fact.
Here's a couple of facts: Weidman has not won a fight since USADA. Weidman has been finished in brutal fashion in recent bouts.
Uriah Hall who is arguably a vastly better striker than Weidman had a 8 inch reach advantage over Gast.
If Weidman is some higher level fighter like your post implies then explain to me why he's the dog in this bout?
Such strange arguments. He's a dog for a variety of reason but none of those reasons mean he's not an above average fighter.
Hall was completely nullified by Gastelums wrestling. That won't happen here.
Fair enough, but Gastelum is the more skilled boxer, the opposite stance matchup will nullify the reach disadvantage (not to mention Weidman is worse against south paws), Gastelum has the better gas tank, he has less quit in him, and he is in a far better place mentally. To me it makes perfect sense that he is the favorite. I have faded Weidman every fight during his losing streak, and I will continue to do so here... quite happily.
Weidman has had three stoppage losses in a row in which he has clearly taken a lot of brain trauma. How can you trust his best self to show up vs Gastelum, and even if he looks better than van Mousasi, Gastelum has never been stopped and the gas tank Weidman has vs Mousasi does not hold up for a five round fight.
But it feels like this discussion has been going in circles. Gastelum backers think he will win the stand up and Weidman is shot and will gas, Weidman backers think Gastelum is unproven and lacks the wrestling to stop Weidman.
There you go again.
"Such strange arguments."
Where did I write that Weidman was average?!? How does wrestling completely nullify the massive reach Hall had on Gast??
Argumentative whitebelts make me laugh.
It is interesting that this one is in Long Island. If Weidman does lose he is going to be in a very bad head-space.
Weidman ko'd hall lol.
Well Gast isn't Hall....
Never said that.
Not sure what your point is.
Weidman KO'd SIlva, does that mean Weidman is a more dangerous striker than Silva?
In any case it's moot because that was in the PED days.
If weidman is a top level fighter why is he an underdog. That was your question. What else were you implying ?
But you do highlight an excellent point. Not worth arguing with you.
Why is Cummings favoured over Villante? His only realistic path to victory is by wrestling and Villante's TDD is decent from what I remember. If it stays standing Cummins is in trouble.
No, I wrote if Weidman is at a higher level than Gast, why is he the dog?
Weidman has fought at a higher level being the champ and all, but that was a while ago now and where he is currently is what matters.
If anything it will exaggerate the reach disadvantage..
Jab is far less effective from opposite stance, speed and footwork (everything to do with positioning) are more important.
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