UFC On ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

[edole]

Dan Hooker is underrated imo.

Dustin poirier is overrated imo.

Guess who I'm betting on.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Thats true, but thats the only dog I like from this card.
Might bet Green too , he will be way bigger than Gian

If the prop is worth it I'm going to bet FDNGTD. Gian must have some CTE goin on lol.

 

[SolarSeiko]

how good is sean woodson? does he really deserve to be a -200 favourite? beating Bochniak is not exactly impressive. His record is quite underwhelming.

I don't think he deserves to be -200 but he's above average and imo will win a dec over Nelson. Also is it just me or does Woodson remind you of the alien from Signs.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I don't think he deserves to be -200 but he's above average and imo will win a dec over Nelson. Also is it just me or does Woodson remind you of the alien from Signs.

 

[Brockstar]

Perry odds are accurate. Gall can’t contend with those hands whatsoever. He should get stuffed also.

Gall has a good chin. If Gall can take down Perry or get his back he has a legitimate chance on a sub. That is his only PTV. I am going to go small on Gall ITD if the odds are +400 or higher.

 

[ill800]

Gall has a good chin. If Gall can take down Perry or get his back he has a legitimate chance on a sub. That is his only PTV. I am going to go small on Gall ITD if the odds are +400 or higher.

Mickey gall hasn’t fought anyone close to as savage as perry.

gall isn’t built for that work perry is going to give him

 

[Martialbeef]

Gall has a good chin. If Gall can take down Perry or get his back he has a legitimate chance on a sub. That is his only PTV. I am going to go small on Gall ITD if the odds are +400 or higher.

Perry isn’t a terrible grappler, did you see Iaquinta vs Perry in #SUGISLAND?

 

[mkess101]

Perry isn’t a terrible grappler, did you see Iaquinta vs Perry in #SUGISLAND?

He's not Gall level or close though. See how easily Cerrone hit that armbar on him. I think Perry can contemd with wrestlers well but his bjj is lacking.

Gall has legit skills with his bjj. He has glaring flaws with his overall MMA game but he's had competitive grappling matches with the best guys in the world (Keenan Cornelius, etc.)

I kinda like NOT Perry itd at solid + odds.

The smaller cage makes me less confident but I still think a finish by Perry is 50% at best so getting NOT Perry itd at +160 or whatever is value to me.

 

[Martialbeef]

He's not Gall level or close though. See how easily Cerrone hit that armbar on him. I think Perry can contemd with wrestlers well but his bjj is lacking.

Gall has legit skills with his bjj. He has glaring flaws with his overall MMA game but he's had competitive grappling matches with the best guys in the world (Keenan Cornelius, etc.)

I kinda like NOT Perry itd at solid + odds.

The smaller cage makes me less confident but I still think a finish by Perry is 50% at best so getting NOT Perry itd at +160 or whatever is value to me.

You’re right, why TF did Perry even take Cowboy down? Easier in hindsight but Cerrone’s chin is compromised and he is an awesome grappler. LOL moment. His brain is a huge worry for any Perry backer.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Mickey gall hasn’t fought anyone close to as savage as perry.

gall isn’t built for that work perry is going to give him

Perry v. Gall is a man fighting a boy, just talking from a physicality perspective. Perry has showed mixed results in the cage but he has also been fighting strong competition. Gall has been sniping the novelty guys that aren't very good fighters.

This fight is a very big step up in competition for Gall. Even with Perry training himself I trust him more than Gall here. Can't blame anyone for taking a shot on a steep dog but I don't really see how Gall wins this.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Dan Hooker is underrated imo.

Dustin poirier is overrated imo.

Guess who I'm betting on.

I don't see how Poirier is overrated, his record speaks for itself. Having said that, this is a close fight and I won't be paying -200 for him.

Hooker has an interesting style that is based on controlling the range. This fight comes down to how well Poirier can find his range as Hooker fights farther away than people are used to. If Poirier can find his range early then I think he does more damage overall. Hooker can also seem a bit inactive at times which won't look good if it goes to decision. I could see this fight hitting the cards where most people think Hooker lost since he backed up the whole fight and he gets a controversial decision.

 

[ill800]

Perry v. Gall is a man fighting a boy, just talking from a physicality perspective. Perry has showed mixed results in the cage but he has also been fighting strong competition. Gall has been sniping the novelty guys that aren't very good fighters.

This fight is a very big step up in competition for Gall. Even with Perry training himself I trust him more than Gall here. Can't blame anyone for taking a shot on a steep dog but I don't really see how Gall wins this.

I laughed at the matchup and the opener, perry -150

I would cap perry -300, and that’s only because he’s an idiot. If I didn’t think he would beat himself making a dumb decision Id cap him at -1000

 

[HockeyBjj]

20 on Porier, $5 funsie on Gall, and a $10 parlay on Porier and Pena mostly off all the hype here of Pena a lock and easy parlay booster. Don't let me down Sherbros

I just think Hooker is too wild and will get picked apart even if Porier is a little slow coming off that hip thing

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I'm realizing I'm a Poirier stan and my opinion may be skewed. Hooker is a very dangerous dude.

 

[ill800]

Props out

 

[HockeyBjj]

Long post, sorry guys.

Never apologize for a long post when you're actually putting some analysis behind it and not simply ranting

Disagree on a couple of the things, but like what you're saying and how you're getting to those conclusions. Cheers

 

[mposhtkouhi]

I think Maverick wins a decision. Borella is on a 3 fight losing streak and honestly, the competition in wmma isn't deep. Maverick has a little nice win streak in Invicta and I can't see the talent pool being that far apart.

I got fooled on betting Borella a while ago because she holds 4 belt ranks :
Black belt in Judo
Blue belt in BJJ
Black belt in Kickboxing
Black belt in Shoot Boxing

But if you watch her fight, she looks like a white belt in all of them lol.

*wmma is just fuckin too random. A few events ago I scored a sweet +600 bet on that korean girl that TKO'd Nadia Kaseem. If you look at how she fights, there was no way of even thinking that was going to happen. But I could have swore one of the commentators said she broke a male fighter's orbital in training right before the fight started.

I think maverick subs her in the 1st

 

[mposhtkouhi]

20 on Porier, $5 funsie on Gall, and a $10 parlay on Porier and Pena mostly off all the hype here of Pena a lock and easy parlay booster. Don't let me down Sherbros

I just think Hooker is too wild and will get picked apart even if Porier is a little slow coming off that hip thing

Good luck man

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Officialy this week circke jerk is Dustin

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Here are the fights I like and of course could change due to line changes because I never bet above a -200 and due to hedging if I make it far enough to hedge

Griffrin-105
Frey+125
Sato-130
Woodson/Nelson starts rd3-160
Lins-115
Maverick/Borella- Wont start rd 3+165
Worthy/Pena- Starts rd 3-130
Villante/Green-Starts rd2-195
Allen/Daukus-Wont start rd 3-150
Perry/Gall-Starts rd 2-180
Poirer/Hooker-Starts rd 3-130

The MGM app I have have horrible odds these are based off of bestfight odds. These would be the bets I placed if it wasnt due to hedging and line changes what do you guys thing?