UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland Official Bets

Sadistics said:
Vettori -129 $750

DLR/Santos GTD -200 $800

Allan/Dolidze O1.5 -132 $1500

Evloev DEC -130 $600

Durden +175 $750

Benitez +110 $4000
Jaynes RD1 +600 $150

Leavitt DEC +190 $250
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nice job on your lines per usual. does the benitez-jaynes fight being at 155 affect your confidence/unit level on the fight? assuming you played 4u when the fight was announced at 145? or i could just be totally off base here altogether. hopefully this question doesn't clog the thread too much.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
He has 4 units in Benitez to put things into perspective.
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To be honest, the +110 and -235 lines are so far apart (<48% vs >70% represented probability) that despite it being the same fighter, it’s not even remotely the same bet. There are plenty of spots where I would go big on a plus money play but pass on the same fighter as over a 2:1 favorite.
 
chemmy said:
To be honest, the +110 and -235 lines are so far apart (<48% vs >70% represented probability) that despite it being the same fighter, it’s not even remotely the same bet. There are plenty of spots where I would go big on a plus money play but pass on the same fighter as over a 2:1 favorite.
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What difference does it make if the bet cashes? We're here to make money.
I think that's a strange approach to betting. If you believe the fighter is going to win, it shouldn't matter if the odds are -225. Since most people are taking and misinterpreting my post, let me explain further.

if i see someone like Sadistics throw 4u on a fighter at plus 110, I am inclined, (like others on here but they’re afraid to admit it for being called out) to believe it’s a very solid read and his level of confidence helps me be confident in that bet. If I was already leaning Benitez (I was, check my tapology page) I have no problem betting him @ -230. This refers to only this situation.

I am not advocating betting heavy favorites period.
 
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Crimp_Keeper said:
What difference does it make if the bet cashes? We're here to make money.
I think that's a strange approach to betting. If you believe the fighter is going to win, it shouldn't matter if the odds are -225.
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Next Nunes or Schevenko fight when the odds are like -2000 you should bet ur entire bankroll on them since the odds dont matter who cares if its -2000 we are all here to make money
 
Jeffy37 said:
Would you recommend Benitez -235
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No, I think it's now accurate.

InTheCut said:
nice job on your lines per usual. does the benitez-jaynes fight being at 155 affect your confidence/unit level on the fight? assuming you played 4u when the fight was announced at 145? or i could just be totally off base here altogether. hopefully this question doesn't clog the thread too much.
Click to expand...

I kinda prefer it, Benitez should be a bit more durable and Jaynes' issue isn't the weight cut, it's the 100% commitment to everything he does.

Crimp_Keeper said:
What difference does it make if the bet cashes? We're here to make money.
I think that's a strange approach to betting. If you believe the fighter is going to win, it shouldn't matter if the odds are -225.
Click to expand...

Dangerous way to look at it. You're betting the line not the fighter.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
What difference does it make if the bet cashes? We're here to make money.
I think that's a strange approach to betting. If you believe the fighter is going to win, it shouldn't matter if the odds are -225.
Click to expand...

I actually agree with you on this one, I dont like going for less than -200 tho even I know the fighter will most likely win this fight. I think as you said if you confident fighter will win go for it, Im sure a lot of us here will disagree with it and thats fine different people, different opinion but as I mentioned I wouldnt go less than -200. ( unless its khabib or curtis vs lewis for example ) ppl were so high on lewis TKO curtis late rounds .... lol I rly hope they WILL re book that fight just to prove people....


Dangerous way to look at it. You're betting the line not the fighter.[/QUOTE]

I dont know if I agree with it for the first time with @Sadistics on this. Eg Gaethje I rly have nooo clue what people saw in Gaethje that he could win... The ML ? cose khabib dad past away ? some people said apparently khabib didnt look himself ..? a lot of speculations which I thought betting Gaethje big waste of money. Seen people went as big as 3u and I said before fight if you look my comments ' Gaethje will get clapped ez and that will be it ' . Same thing with Curtis vs Lewis I rly hope they will rebook it and will see.

(Sadistics one of the best guy betting wise here, his style worked for him rly well so I understand his point of view) Me personally I just wouldnt go on some fights just because ML is good, some fights worth taking the risk tho EG last weekend had 2u on Parker and ADS ( yes can show a pic of 800£ on both guys , I just dont post my picks ) which both won and were good dogs but just because it was WORTH taking the risk not Gathje over Khabib....

Also @Crimp_Keeper (not taking shots, you liked my comment we best friends now :) you mentioned if you believe the fighter will win line doesnt matter, however you picked Moreno over Figuiredo , Vera over Aldo ? please correct me if Im wrong , but if you did I think they both will lose. So again I think its waste of money but good that you didnt go big.

PS at the end of the day who gives a f*** ... as long you you profit there is that to it. You dont need to prove anything to anyone .
Edited this over 3+ times prob now, before Crimpy starts correcting me Kappa, Good luck this weekend everyone , lets make some $$ !
 
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Oh no. Version 826383 of explaining value/probability vs simple win/loss incoming...

If it needs to be explained to you why it matters betting something at +110 and not -235, you shouldn't be betting at all. Clearly probability wasnt taught in many schools.

Edit: The latest episode of "the boxing betting podcast" by Tom Craze explains this well. Amusingly id expect those who refuse to learn why probability/odds are important to not listen and those who already understand it to do so. Such is the world we live and people being proudly ignorant
 
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£75 Hermansen +115 to win £86.25

£500 Benitez +100 to win £500

£100 Santos decision +100 to win £100

£17 Dolizde sub +800 to win £153

£140 Evoev decision -120 to win £116.20

£100 Leavitt 1.5 -204 to win £49
£35 Leavitt decision +190 to win £65.62

£133 Cody +155 to win £206

£10 Topuria -149 to win £6.70

£140 Villante / Collier over 1.5 -137 to win £102.20
 
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Treble:
Dolidze by Submission or Ko/TKO 1.91
De La rosa vs Santos to go the Distance 1.44
Vettori vs Hermansson not to go the distance 1.36

Total 3.76 (+276) multiplier

OSP to win by KO/Submission 2.88 (+188)

Montana de la rosa to win by decision 4.33 (+333)
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
What difference does it make if the bet cashes? We're here to make money.
I think that's a strange approach to betting. If you believe the fighter is going to win, it shouldn't matter if the odds are -225.
Click to expand...

Damn son. What you are saying is that you would take a 60% line on a 80% event?
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
so you can’t explain what the difference is if the bet cashes? I understand implied probability. This is odds, not rocket science.

also, I know ALL of you have bet someone at -225-250 previously so I’m not sure what your panties are all bunched up for.
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Because it's not all about a single bet, it's about a long term betting strategy. If you consistently put your money in 'value' positions you will profit over time. Yeah you will lose bets but you only need a small edge to be a profitable gambler.

A value bet isn't just a dog bet, no one here is just betting the biggest dogs on each card and calling it value.

If Khabib is -300 but you believe -500 is a more accurate price then that would be a value bet.

Obviously you have to see a reasonable path to victory for any fighter you are betting and believe that they do have a realistic chance of winning the fight.

But, personally, I don't always check out implied probability percentages because I don't really care.

Bet how you want and if it works for you then who cares.
 
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