UFC on ESPN+ 22 Blachowicz vs Jacare

Caicara said:
If anything, you can hedge with Moraes sub. He's been talking a lot about going back to his roots.
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If he doesnt put on his back he isn’t going back anywhere

his takedown game is almost non existent
 
Ascension, is Lipski going to stop this replacement too? We gotta know. :cool:
 
LiquidNuke said:
I'm terrified of those Alve's low kicks...
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Alves is hit and miss, some fights he looks like a killer and others average. I think Brown has all the tools he needs to pick him apart, the length, good jab and straights, strong in the clinch. I question Brown's chin more than anything else
 
ill800 said:
If he doesnt put on his back he isn’t going back anywhere

his takedown game is almost non existent
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Yeah, frustrating guy, if he can get 90% of UFC fighters on their backs, he has the game to sub them within a round, but he can never get them there
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Yeah, frustrating guy, if he can get 90% of UFC fighters on their backs, he has the game to sub them within a round, but he can never get them there
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Moraes wrestling isn't particularly ineffective the guy just never uses it, the techniques not great but he's quite explosive and athletic which helps a lot. He took Martin down at will when he actually tried but was mostly content to lose a decision striking with him. If he wants he can probably takedown Krause relatively easy, it just comes down to his willingness to do so, he didn't shoot a single TD vs Alves despite getting dominated standing. His fight IQ is abysmal.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Plot twist: she herself gets stopped and gets cut.
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You think she's that bad? Maybe something of a prospect bust but I don't think that makes her terrible. I dig her knee work and aggression, her hands aren't terrible either. She's raw.
 
Markus Perez's last three wins, dating back over two years, have all been by submission... Anyone going to be taking a stab on him to do it again at +300? I think Perez has proven to be a sneaky fuck in their with his sub game and you could do worst plays then a small bet on him ITD...

His previous two opponents before this stoppage streak have a combined 23 losses without a single sub loss between them... Hmm...
 
Broe. said:
de padua seems pretty tough, and she looks like a dude. I like the decision line on lipski x 2.
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I think it's a rough fight for someone operating on her level on a few days notice...
 
LiquidNuke said:
Markus Perez's last three wins, dating back over two years, have all been by submission... Anyone going to be taking a stab on him to do it again at +300? I think Perez has proven to be a sneaky fuck in their with his sub game and you could do worst plays then a small bet on him ITD...

His previous two opponents before this stoppage streak have a combined 23 losses without a single sub loss between them... Hmm...
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I played the Maluko by sub line at +500. Think it has more value than ITD at +300. Implied odds of 16.67% sub versus 25% ITD. So that breaks down to 66/33 Sub/KO if Maluko finishes taking the ITD. KO is possible, but I think should swing heavier to sub since Maluko is more likely to club and sub you even if he lands clean.
 
Late podcast episode out for this card. Give it a listen if you have some free time and would like to hear some more thought's on the fights today. Will be doing these for every card from now on!

 
Serious question, if Luke Sander's hands down completely sparked you out cold just several months agp, then why can't a hard hitting guy like Douglas duplicate that? Is Renan a masterful mover with great footwork or evasive all of a sudden? Line sits at +155 and I kind of like it.
 
LiquidNuke said:
You think she's that bad? Maybe something of a prospect bust but I don't think that makes her terrible. I dig her knee work and aggression, her hands aren't terrible either. She's raw.
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Shes pretty bad. I know absolutely zero about Pudua tho.
 
turbozed said:
Melo looked pretty lean at weigh-ins and most of her bodyweight is in her tree trunk thighs. So the waist up comparison pics might be deceiving. Cortez got junk the trunk too but still doesn't compare to how stout Melo is. Melo is more likely to look bigger after rehydrating. Cortez looks like she belongs at 125. I thought Melo belonged at 125 too but seeing how lean she is at 136 lbs makes me think different now.
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Yeah. I would be (will be) more concerned when Cortez fights a 135er that is long & tall and has a layer of TDD. I think Melo's body type actually works against her here. Cortez will crash in, paw away the hand defense Melo likes to use, and duck under for a double. I don't think Melo has the speed to spread her legs wide so that sneaky heel trip will be there for Cortez, and Melo's own body weight will help take her down. In the TNCS fight, R1 Cortez is stupid and wild. But when she tires and gets her corner advice she goes out in R2 and R3 and really consolidates her position much, much better. She stops sub hunting so much and just wins rounds wide.
Hot take maybe but I'm not all that convinced that this thing is a mismatch on the feet either.
Although, your side is +200 and I'm -165, so I get it...
 
ApplesVild said:
Has Jacare got any take downs in his last 5 fights? His last sub win was over the Barbarian, who I think was a short notice replacement.

If he has got any takedowns in his past 5 he hasn't done anything with them.

Jacare is old, he's showed a lack of enthusiasm and frustration with fighting, he always faulters when he has a big chance, he's going to be the smaller man, he has issues with gassing in three round fights, now he's going five with extra weight to carry and grappling with a guy who has a notable size advantage.. I just don't see how anything about this is an advantage for Jacare, who recently lost to a bloated up welter weight who he had a minimum of success against on the ground.

Jan is probably as fast or faster on the feet, has the better striking technique, is actually a real 205er and his only recent loss is to Santos, he's in his career best form.

Where are you seeing an advantage for Jacare? You're seeing value on him at +150 because he could possibly get a takedown and that somehow ensures a sub will follow? The guy has 4 submissions in his UFC career and 2 of those are over the same can.

Jacare's chance is a fluke, punchers chance, take his round 1 KO prop if anything.
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I think Jan is a bit overhyped right now because of his recent KO of Rockhold. Going from a dog against Luke, to a -200 favorite over Jacare is a bit ridiculous.

Jan's only advantage in this fight is his power. Jacare has a more diverse striking arsenal, better BJJ, and better takedowns.

People are acting like Jan has cardio like Hermansson. I think if Jacare can avoid his power, he doesn't even need to take Jan down, he can just win a rather boring striking value.

And from the time you made this post to me replying, Jacare has gone from +170 to +125. So quite a few people seem to agree with me.

I think Jacare decision @ +800 has tremendous value. His +125 line right now I'd pass on.

Jan is the rightful favorite, but Jacare has the tools to win.
 
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