Has Jacare got any take downs in his last 5 fights? His last sub win was over the Barbarian, who I think was a short notice replacement.
If he has got any takedowns in his past 5 he hasn't done anything with them.
Jacare is old, he's showed a lack of enthusiasm and frustration with fighting, he always faulters when he has a big chance, he's going to be the smaller man, he has issues with gassing in three round fights, now he's going five with extra weight to carry and grappling with a guy who has a notable size advantage.. I just don't see how anything about this is an advantage for Jacare, who recently lost to a bloated up welter weight who he had a minimum of success against on the ground.
Jan is probably as fast or faster on the feet, has the better striking technique, is actually a real 205er and his only recent loss is to Santos, he's in his career best form.
Where are you seeing an advantage for Jacare? You're seeing value on him at +150 because he could possibly get a takedown and that somehow ensures a sub will follow? The guy has 4 submissions in his UFC career and 2 of those are over the same can.
Jacare's chance is a fluke, punchers chance, take his round 1 KO prop if anything.