UFC on ESPN 7 Overeem vs Rozenstruik Official Bets

Had a three way parlay of Ladd ITD, Rothwell ITD, and Means ITD... 33 bucks paid off into almost 700. Also had a small but successful stab on Jirna ITD (Am I remembering her name correctly?) also had Murakov ITD at +125 which paid off with that big third round one punch KO. Wild night, I'm lucky Rothwell/Struve wasn't even more of a freakshow, with a Hardy like fuck up to put the fight into the NC zone...
 
Had a three way parlay of Ladd ITD, Rothwell ITD, and Means ITD... 33 bucks paid off into almost 700. Also had a small but successful stab on Jirna ITD (Am I remembering her name correctly?) also had Murakov ITD at +125 which paid off with that big third round one punch KO. Wild night, I'm lucky Rothwell/Struve wasn't even more of a freakshow, with a Hardy like fuck up to put the fight into the NC zone...
Sweet stuff man, glad you got that. You were right about Solecki playing back pack at least later on, guess he was pacing himself so I can't complain.
 
Sweet stuff man, glad you got that. You were right about Solecki playing back pack at least later on, guess he was pacing himself so I can't complain.

That three way parlay originally had Solecki in it too but he blew my original same sized parlay and I had to redor it! I was left completely underwhelmed by his performance. We saw Wiman get rag dolled by a prospect gone bust that's basically washed out of the UFC this point in Pena. I don't know. I think someone with educated hands or feet exploits Joe's inexperience there and really pieces him up, solid as his ground game is I also dare say he didn't show the kind of diversity you want in the submission game, that you might expect from a "real" prospect. He didn't go through the gears effectively so to speak, at least not throughly enough to get one of the remnants of the last generation out of there.
 
What a crazy night. Steve lost his sugar shack, Dave lost his mind and will hear barking dogs every night he lies down to sleep. Nobody seemed to come out unscathed from the random fight outcomes. Almost every fight had an awesome finish and those that didnt ended in a draw. My night was already on the rocks when my wife invited 3 other couples and their kids around right at the start of the main card. "Mr anti social" was lambasted for having his earphones in the whole night but what did she expect. Better missing most of this main card than next week I guess. That Overeem fight fucked me and I ended down 4u. The guests were extremely distracting my attempts to hedge so by the 5th round I decided to go raw dog. The end result left me feeling a bit like Struve without the long term erectile disfunction. see you all next week it will be a banger!

I had my company Xmas party and it severly crippled my ability to protect my action or play things I like to think I would've (i.e. Live Draw in the Song-Stamann fight). On top of that: 4 seconds in the ME ( I wish Rozen hit him just one more time, then I wouldn't care at all), a point deduction (I mean, Song does win without it), and a fairly random WMMA 10-8 round look to have cost me 8u. Thank goodness for Anthony Joshua earlier in the day. Ended up on the day at +$338 but I had a legitimate shout at being up ~$1080. Fuck it, these nights happen. And it could've been worse with Song losing (as he should've) and the point against Rothwell ironically won him that fight by forcing him to actually fight.
 
That three way parlay originally had Solecki in it too but he blew my original same sized parlay and I had to redor it! I was left completely underwhelmed by his performance. We saw Wiman get rag dolled by a prospect gone bust that's basically washed out of the UFC this point in Pena. I don't know. I think someone with educated hands or feet exploits Joe's inexperience there and really pieces him up, solid as his ground game is I also dare say he didn't show the kind of diversity you want in the submission game, that you might expect from a "real" prospect. He didn't go through the gears effectively so to speak, at least not throughly enough to get one of the remnants of the last generation out of there.
It wasn't the greatest performance but he basically did everything I expected, I feel like he played it safe he came close to a finish in r1 Wimans talent at this point seems to be soaking damage in a Diaz esque way. Yeah I hate he didn't really show his stand up but he controled all but about 15 seconds of the fight so that's not terrible. Finished no but he skunked him badly
 

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I had my company Xmas party and it severly crippled my ability to protect my action or play things I like to think I would've (i.e. Live Draw in the Song-Stamann fight). On top of that: 4 seconds in the ME ( I wish Rozen hit him just one more time, then I wouldn't care at all), a point deduction (I mean, Song does win without it), and a fairly random WMMA 10-8 round look to have cost me 8u. Thank goodness for Anthony Joshua earlier in the day. Ended up on the day at +$338 but I had a legitimate shout at being up ~$1080. Fuck it, these nights happen. And it could've been worse with Song losing (as he should've) and the point against Rothwell ironically won him that fight by forcing him to actually fight.
Does this help?

Even before the ko Reem look gun shy and he burned alot of juice with that grappling
 
How did you turn 500 into 16k in such a short amount of time? I've never heard of such growth especially with such a volatile sport like MMA.

I don't see MMA as volatile at all.

I think I've watched almost every UFC fight in the last 9-10 years, even the early prelims. Also a ton of other orgs like Invicta and Bellator.

It's made it pretty easy to predict certain things, if not actually who is going to win outright.

I only ever do multi-bets. I know people say that's dumb, but I think those people are approaching it way wrong and don't know the fighters.

I also tested this for about 8 months before I actually started betting. I did fake bets, pretending that I was putting 5k down every time and that I had a grand total of 15k to lose. I was doing pretty stupid bets back then and didn't have much of a plan, but even so, over 8 months that 5k would have been 160k.

With real money, I started betting mainly on women SW and male FLW, but only betting on whether or not they would make it to the 2nd round. Sometimes for them to go the distance if it was the women.

If you know the girls, you will know if they're a sub specialist or not, so you watch out for those ones. Otherwise, the SW girls rarely have enough power to rock each other, let alone finish, especially at the lower ranks. Obviously you don't bet on girls like Andrade and Rose, and you watch out for Barber types surging up the rankings.

HWs are also good, but only to bet that there will be a finish.

I just kept putting maybe 4-5 of those kind of fights to go to the 2nd round or distance on a multi-bet. 4 or so will likely get you close to 2.5 odds or so. That 500 turns into 1500 pretty quick.

Then, I just kept betting higher amounts the more money I had spare. Like, once it got above 5k, I started doing 2k bets. Once it got to around 8k, I started doing 3k. Now at 16k, maybe I'll do 4k. Once I break 20k, I'll probably start on 5k. I've hardly lost, but when I have, I'm pretty confident that the rest of my legs on that card were correct, so I always chase the loss right away and end up winning back what I'd lost and more on top anyway.

And once you can afford to risk more, the risk is actually mitigated because you don't need as many legs. For example, my second biggest win is 4k on a 2 legger of Shane Burgos to beat Makwan and Chookagian to beat Maia. I only put 3k on that. Bookies really don't understand the fighters if they thought the odds were in their favor on that.

So yeah, multi-bets and smart picks. I'm actually picking winners now, as I'm almost always right with them. The last 3 cards, I start with a slip of 8 picks to win. I then just look at records and what I know of the fighters and remove 4-5 so it's safer. It's fucking sad though, because my whole starting slip in the last three cards has been all correct. I'd be way over 100k if I'd been dropping the same money on the lot, but I ain't that game. Maybe if I had 100k to play with or something I would.

If Marina had of gotten the win yesterday, I'd be up around 24k instead of 16k, and my bookie voided a bet a few months ago of Joanna to win and Sanchez and whoever he was fighting to make it to the 2nd. I got it in writing though that its was legit and its going through some small claims court. They've tried to give me some bonus bet money to shut me up, but we'll see how it goes. If I get the full amount out of them, it'll be another 13.4k on top.
 
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I’m jealous of you guys getting voided bets on a draw. Is that because you’re live betting ?
Has nothing to do with live betting. Most U.S. facing books have what are called two way lines where draw is a prop bet and on combat sports a draw result results in a push or cancelled wager for moneyline bets. Most European books offer what are called three-way lines where they specifically have draw represented as a X symbol in between the two moneyline sides and in that case a draw result would result in a loss. Some books like Intertops have both listed, at least for the boxing bouts- you can bet the two way line at a slightly worse price than the three-way line for the same moneyline side.
 
A 12% ROI is excellent.

Yeah, I definitely haven't been doing this anywhere near as long as most of you here, so I probably wouldn't know. I'd feel iffy about throwing down 4.5k and not winning at least 3-4 profit.
 
I imagine Overeem bettors felt like I did with that big Russian dude over Lewis. ..

My personal reaction was something like this...

 
$200/$336
Virna Jandiroba -198
Joe Solecki -300
Petr Yan -480
Usman/Covington starts round 3

$129/$100
solecki
Means

$148/$100
Ben Rothwell -148

$210/$203
Rodriguez calvillo o 2.5
Tim means -265

+$403 with a big boy pending on Yan and convington Usman starts round 3 which I will double up on for sure.
 
Overeem ML - 2.5u for 2.17u (-115)
Song ML - 3.5u for 2.06u (-170)
Ladd Submission - 0.25u for 2u (+800)
Rodriguez ML - 1u for 0.83u (-120)
Rodriguez Decision - 0.5u for 0.83u (+165)
Simon Decision - 0.5u for 1.1u (+220)
Sayles ML - 2u for 1.82u (-110)
Alves-Means O2.5 Rounds - 1.4u for 1u (-140)
Rothwell ML - 1.5u for 1.09u (-138)
Starts Round 2:
Wiman-Solecki + Sayles-Mitchell + Alves-Means - 0.5u for 0.47u
Stamann-Song + Rodriguez-Calvillo + Alves-Means - 0.5u for 0.54u
Sayles-Mitchell + Wiman-Solecki + Kilburn-Quarantillo - 0.5u for 0.48u


-7.56u

Just wanted to confirm something...

...yup, dumpster fire indeed.

Four more seconds for Reem and one less point deduction for Song and it's (probably/maybe) only -0.83u so I guess I'm alright with that. Not how it works though, is it!
 
Overeem ML - 2.5u for 2.17u (-115)
Song ML - 3.5u for 2.06u (-170)
Ladd Submission - 0.25u for 2u (+800)
Rodriguez ML - 1u for 0.83u (-120)
Rodriguez Decision - 0.5u for 0.83u (+165)
Simon Decision - 0.5u for 1.1u (+220)
Sayles ML - 2u for 1.82u (-110)
Alves-Means O2.5 Rounds - 1.4u for 1u (-140)
Rothwell ML - 1.5u for 1.09u (-138)
Starts Round 2:
Wiman-Solecki + Sayles-Mitchell + Alves-Means - 0.5u for 0.47u
Stamann-Song + Rodriguez-Calvillo + Alves-Means - 0.5u for 0.54u
Sayles-Mitchell + Wiman-Solecki + Kilburn-Quarantillo - 0.5u for 0.48u


-7.56u

Just wanted to confirm something...

...yup, dumpster fire indeed.

Four more seconds for Reem and one less point deduction for Song and it's (probably/maybe) only -0.83u so I guess I'm alright with that. Not how it works though, is it!

Sure sucks when Sadistics posts his picks later than usual, huh?

-7.6u isn't all that impressive in a week where Jordie went -14.1u according to his BetMMA page , though. (And as usual, lied and claimed he was only -6u)

Next week, go for at least -10u, Steve! I believe in you!
 
Sure sucks when Sadistics posts his picks later than usual, huh?

-7.6u isn't all that impressive in a week where Jordie went -14.1u according to his BetMMA page , though. (And as usual, lied and claimed he was only -6u)

Next week, go for at least -10u, Steve! I believe in you!
Yeah. I liked his Simon Decision play (actually thought of that all on my own earlier but his post reminded me) and we got close there!

Actually ended up +$338 on the day and can post every bet slip to prove it if you would like. But how have your call outs fared you recently, hmm? Would hate to embarrass you again.

Night was a blip. It happens. Assuming no Draw, I was literally 4 seconds away from +$1080. This is what we signed up for though.

Speaking of ‘Up’, I am more than $20,000 to the good through 2019 and can post every bet slip for you again to prove every penny of that profit. So if you ever need some pointers on how to make actual money at this just shoot me a quick DM and I’ll be happy to give you some advice!
 
Yeah. I liked his Simon Decision play (actually thought of that all on my own earlier but his post reminded me) and we got close there!

Actually ended up +$338 on the day and can post every bet slip to prove it if you would like.

Sure you were, Stevie. Sure you were.

Speaking of ‘Up’, I am more than $20,000 to the good through 2019

To be fair, this isn't any more ridiculous than Gugabe claiming to be up $45,000 despite being something like -54u on his BetMMA, or Jordie claiming to be up 500u or whatever his most recent lie, of which anywhere from 400u to 600u are unlisted live bets.

Then again, maybe $20k is including Stevie's day job as a garbage collector?

and can post every bet slip for you again to prove every penny of that profit. So if you ever need some pointers on how to make actual money at this just shoot me a quick DM and I’ll be happy to give you some advice!

Comical coming from the guy who gleefully used to copy my picks and threw a bitch-fit when I stopped posting them publically.

Stevie, we all know you know absolutely nothing about MMA. Jordie is a terrible analyst, yes, but he does know SOMETHING about MMA. You don't.
 
Sure you were, Stevie. Sure you were.



To be fair, this isn't any more ridiculous than Gugabe claiming to be up $45,000 despite being something like -54u on his BetMMA, or Jordie claiming to be up 500u or whatever his most recent lie, of which anywhere from 400u to 600u are unlisted live bets.

Then again, maybe $20k is including Stevie's day job as a garbage collector?



Comical coming from the guy who gleefully used to copy my picks and threw a bitch-fit when I stopped posting them publically.

Stevie, we all know you know absolutely nothing about MMA. Jordie is a terrible analyst, yes, but he does know SOMETHING about MMA. You don't.

Alright, Paulie, you asked for it. ANY bet slip you want proof of from my spreadsheets, you just let me know.
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+$338.02 for December 7.

I hammered the Solecki opener on BOL but did not pre-post it here. I have given guys the gears about hammering openers so I thought it inappropriate to boast about getting that line on him. I knew the line was dead in the water anyways and I got lucky with being in front of a computer when it dropped, so I hammered it too. Hypocrite confirmed.

You want to go down the $20k road? You sure? I can prove it all there bub. Think hard about it because, deep down, you know where that leads: you sitting in a puddle of you own tears wondering how a guy who knows "absolutely nothing about MMA" can win money you could only dream of. I'm not a unit shamer but what are yours? $10? $20? Honestly, considering your results long-term, that's probably even a bit much. As much as we're at odds, I don't want to see you tilt bust (probably again. I bet you have before, haven't you? You have all the tells of a tilt buster btw).

As far as copying picks, I blind-tailed Sadistics on Owczarz and wound up with +$185. Silly me. Anthony Joshua was all me though!
 
Alright, Paulie, you asked for it. ANY bet slip you want proof of from my spreadsheets, you just let me know.
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+$338.02 for December 7.

So according to your own spreadsheets, which aren't proof of any kind (unlike betslips), you made 0 live-bets during the UFC card and lost $624, or 6.24u. And then claimed overall victory by adding your (supposed) wins on boxing and KSW, mostly down to unlisted boxing live-bets, which wasn't even relevant to the discussion.

I'll let others judge the veracity of that claim, especially given your history of lying.

As for supposedly making $20k, that makes little sense with a current unit size of $100.

You want to go down the $20k road? You sure? I can prove it all there bub.

I actually don't care very much, besides seeing you freak out and act like a clown for my amusement. However, given that you're a confirmed liar and how your current unit size is less than 0.5% of your supposed winnings for the year, it's probably fake.

I'm not a unit shamer but what are yours? $10? $20? Honestly, considering your results long-term, that's probably even a bit much.

My units are larger than yours. Not by much, admittedly, but as with everything else, you're wildly off the mark here.

As much as we're at odds, I don't want to see you tilt bust (probably again. I bet you have before, haven't you? You have all the tells of a tilt buster btw).

HAHA. More projection, Stevie? For the record, I did bust out back in 2005, when I was 18, on Internet poker with a tiny bankroll of $150. (Broke college student and all) That's the one and only time I've busted out on anything.

As for tilt, I don't really get it, at least not in a standard manner. When I take heavy losses, it makes me way tighter with my money and plays. It also inspires me to work harder on the next card.

Anywho, I'm really mocking you for two reasons;

1. It's amusing.
2. I want people to starve you by not posting their picks publically until the last possible moment. After all, we are reliably told by Stevie himself that he is a master combat sports gambler. Perhaps, like his friend Jordie, he is even a "professional". Clearly, he doesn't need to tail anyone, then!
 
So according to your own spreadsheets, which aren't proof of any kind (unlike betslips), you made 0 live-bets during the UFC card and lost $624, or 6.24u. And then claimed overall victory by adding your (supposed) wins on boxing and KSW, mostly down to unlisted boxing live-bets, which wasn't even relevant to the discussion.

I'll let others judge the veracity of that claim, especially given your history of lying.

As for supposedly making $20k, that makes little sense with a current unit size of $100.



I actually don't care very much, besides seeing you freak out and act like a clown for my amusement. However, given that you're a confirmed liar and how your current unit size is less than 0.5% of your supposed winnings for the year, it's probably fake.



My units are larger than yours. Not by much, admittedly, but as with everything else, you're wildly off the mark here.



HAHA. More projection, Stevie? For the record, I did bust out back in 2005, when I was 18, on Internet poker with a tiny bankroll of $150. (Broke college student and all) That's the one and only time I've busted out on anything.

As for tilt, I don't really get it, at least not in a standard manner. When I take heavy losses, it makes me way tighter with my money and plays. It also inspires me to work harder on the next card.

Anywho, I'm really mocking you for two reasons;

1. It's amusing.
2. I want people to starve you by not posting their picks publically until the last possible moment. After all, we are reliably told by Stevie himself that he is a master combat sports gambler. Perhaps, like his friend Jordie, he is even a "professional". Clearly, he doesn't need to tail anyone, then!

-spreadsheets aren't proof but, as I've offered numerous times, go ahead and ask to see any random betslip there. Go ahead. Double dare you. How has that worked out for you lately?
-I said I was +$338 "on the day". I included boxing and KSW. This is a problem, how? "(Supposed)"? Here's the b365 side. Wanna see the "supposed" others?
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-I have a history of lying? Should be easy to show all of us just one lie then. Just one. Where is it? I don't care enough to lie. Why would I lie?
-I am currently 0.5% until the New Year. I was ~1% all year before this, increasing unit sizes as needed. Why is $20k in 2019 probably fake? And again, why would I lie? You do understand that posting bets here pre-fight are not the only plays I make, right? That seems to be an incredibly hard concept for you to grasp.

Mock away. It does the exact opposite of what you intend. You're a clown and a troll.
 
For the record, it's $20,685.01 profit for 2019 with $2,026.24 currently in-play. Which, typing that out, makes me wonder why I waste my time with a small fry bum like you.
 
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