Yes, this is two faded older heavyweights. But I don't see Ben Rothwell getting submitted like Stefan Struve's last opponent or knocked out. And Struve is terrible at winning fights where he doesn't get a stoppage, with only two decision wins in the last decade. So I like Rothwell ML at -136.
UFC on ESPN 7 Overeem vs Rozenstruik
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I got $1,500.00 / 3 pick parlay on Kunitskaya, Rothwell, and Rodriguez. A $200 throwaway hedge bet flipping Rodriguez for Calvino in case she loses. $2000 on Yana. $1300.00 on Rothwell. Total bet $5000. I'm avoiding the main event action completely.
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For the record, I really, really hate Aspen Ladd, too.
She filed an appeal to the California State Athletic Commission alleging gender discrimination on the part of Herb Dean in stopping her fight against de Randamie too early. She wanted it overturned to a no-contest.
Incredibly, this was ALMOST successful, only being narrowly defeated by a 3-2 ruling, with both female members of the commission completely agreeing with Ladd that yup, it was totally sexism. (Dean should have countered by alleging racial discrimination on the part of Ladd and her team)
After that disgusting stunt, I don't know how any self-respecting MMA fan could NOT hate Ladd.
That being said, I think our pal Mr. Henderson is going to lose his money.
She filed an appeal to the California State Athletic Commission alleging gender discrimination on the part of Herb Dean in stopping her fight against de Randamie too early. She wanted it overturned to a no-contest.
Incredibly, this was ALMOST successful, only being narrowly defeated by a 3-2 ruling, with both female members of the commission completely agreeing with Ladd that yup, it was totally sexism. (Dean should have countered by alleging racial discrimination on the part of Ladd and her team)
After that disgusting stunt, I don't know how any self-respecting MMA fan could NOT hate Ladd.
That being said, I think our pal Mr. Henderson is going to lose his money.
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Hello? Is Mr. half a unit there? Yes Speaking.
Poor fella. Hope you win that half a unit bet and get yourself a new phone.
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Dave Henderson is the main man. I like you bro
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I mean I do think that MMA referees tend to jump in a bit quicker to stop WMMA fights than in Mens, but Ladd was 100% cooked in that particular instance and has no reason to complain.
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Says you’re a white belt, but you’re writing like a keyboard black belt. I’m excited to watch this crash & burn
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I'm hoping this is subtle trolling.
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This betting forum has attracted some weirdos/trolls in the past. This Dave is just another guy to that list.
As for the fight it's as straightforward as they come. If Ladd gets on top (and there is a very good chance she will) it's pretty much all downhill for Yana.
As for the fight it's as straightforward as they come. If Ladd gets on top (and there is a very good chance she will) it's pretty much all downhill for Yana.
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Fixed that for ya Dave. BOL on your bets.
That reminds me- we are about due for a Barry appearance with the holidays in full effect, the original kinder & gentler long con troll.
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Yes Barry is the king. Hopefully he will share his next 5$ pick soon.
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The people wishing someone to lose their bet and money, now that is incredibly bad taste.
Way different than someone bring up past results on fights, esp in a place like sherdog where people like to brag, talk like they know what they are talking about and talk shit before the fights but saying anything to anyone after the fact is a big no no? haha gtfo, that just means the person can't handle they were wrong, and talking shit before, during and after happens in any sport or event.
But to flat out wish someone loses their money, that is was what you call bad taste.
Way different than someone bring up past results on fights, esp in a place like sherdog where people like to brag, talk like they know what they are talking about and talk shit before the fights but saying anything to anyone after the fact is a big no no? haha gtfo, that just means the person can't handle they were wrong, and talking shit before, during and after happens in any sport or event.
But to flat out wish someone loses their money, that is was what you call bad taste.
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There's some talk about Ladd catching Yana's kicks. I don't recall Ladd actually catching any kicks before. Maybe prior to her UFC career that I'm forgetting? In any case, Ladd keeps her hands pasted to her head and when she's in boxing mode, she's REALLY concentrated on boxing. Unless she's drastically changed up her guard placement and gotten better at thinking TDs while striking, I really doubt we see Bangkok ready Ladd catching kicks and sweeping gals. Nobody should be tempted to take a -160 favorite on the premise that the fighter does something very out of character just to exploit the opponent's weakness. Not saying it's impossible, just that you can't bank on it without seeing evidence of it.
I remember rewatching every single Ladd takedown when capping the GDR fight and my takeaway was that she mainly uses bodylock takedowns. Here's what I wrote on a different board:
"She's hit a level chance double leg on Lansberg, but against Eubanks she shot from far out and airplaned the shot. Mainly prefers the bodylock takedown, which GDR has defended well in her past 4 fights. The biggest issue is that she hasn't shown an ability to close distance to grapple, relying on her slow motion forward pressure to cause girls to clinch with her. While this works against poor strikers, it's going to be difficult to handle against GDR who has the range, knows how to use it, and the footwork to preserve it."
So her path to getting it to the ground mostly runs through one of Yana's strengths, which is the clinch. Yana is a big strong 135er, and not an overweight 125'er like Eubanks. Her long legs make it harder for Ladd to hoist her up and put down. So Ladd will need to time a good TD at her hips/legs for a good chance at getting the fight to the mat. That's possible but we've only seen it once many fights ago. The last shot she took was a very weak looking shot in Rd3 against Eubanks that would've taken nodoby down. I ended up with about 1u on Yana at +160 but I'm considering now after writing all this out. Ladd has to prove that she can take the fight where she wants consistently in order for her to be a favorite against more well rounded girls. Until then I'll take the dog odds.
I remember rewatching every single Ladd takedown when capping the GDR fight and my takeaway was that she mainly uses bodylock takedowns. Here's what I wrote on a different board:
"She's hit a level chance double leg on Lansberg, but against Eubanks she shot from far out and airplaned the shot. Mainly prefers the bodylock takedown, which GDR has defended well in her past 4 fights. The biggest issue is that she hasn't shown an ability to close distance to grapple, relying on her slow motion forward pressure to cause girls to clinch with her. While this works against poor strikers, it's going to be difficult to handle against GDR who has the range, knows how to use it, and the footwork to preserve it."
So her path to getting it to the ground mostly runs through one of Yana's strengths, which is the clinch. Yana is a big strong 135er, and not an overweight 125'er like Eubanks. Her long legs make it harder for Ladd to hoist her up and put down. So Ladd will need to time a good TD at her hips/legs for a good chance at getting the fight to the mat. That's possible but we've only seen it once many fights ago. The last shot she took was a very weak looking shot in Rd3 against Eubanks that would've taken nodoby down. I ended up with about 1u on Yana at +160 but I'm considering now after writing all this out. Ladd has to prove that she can take the fight where she wants consistently in order for her to be a favorite against more well rounded girls. Until then I'll take the dog odds.
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Who are you on between Yana/Ladd? I want to bet Yana based on skillset and overall athleticism but I feel like Ladd might just be too physically strong and manhandle her.
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I think someone mentioned earlier that Rozenstruik will be able to land body shots on Overeem similar to what Olenik did.
Rozenstruik has attempted 0 body shots in his UFC fights. And watching Rozen vs Kovalev in RIZIN, I only spotted one jab to the body at range in a fight where he maybe threw 100 strikes or more. I think it's safe to say that Rozenstruik is a head hunter. Like Ladd kick catching, I wouldn't rely on Rozenstruik working the body at all. Again, not saying it's impossible, but I think a trap some people fall into is that they see a weakness for a fighter they want to fade, and then assume because the weakenss is so evident that the fighter they want to back will in fact attempt certain techniques to exploit it.
Maybe if you're taking a big dog and want to put that in as a potential PTV, that's fine. But with closer lined fights and favorites, it's probably a bad idea to let those assumptions affect confdience.
I'm on Overeem here, since I think he is going to try to grapple, and Rozenstruik really needs to put Overeems lights out early to win. Albini was able to get Rozen to the fence easily multiple times in a clinch and Rozen didn't seem to know what to do there, just kinda resting. It doesn't seem like he's an active clinch striker. I don't know much about his kickboxing background, but I'm guessing he didn't fight much muay thai (someone correct me on this if I'm wrong) and is used to having a ref break up clinches so he can headhunt with his boxing. People want to compare Rozen to Francis, but see how Francis actively and powerfully pushed Overeem around versus Rozen's lazy clinching versus Albini and you'll see a few big differences (size, strength, and even technique).
Well timed cilnching neutralizes boxing. We see this in muay thai all the time where good fighters get away with little head movement by just mixing clinching with a long guard and leanbacks. We saw this recently in MMA with Till/Gastelum. Of course this is heavyweight and the normal rules don't apply, but I'll take the guy with more tools whose chances of winning continually increase as time ticks away, rather than the Rd1 KO threat. For those that do like Rozenstruik to KO Overeem early, why not just pay a bit extra and get the under 1.5 rds. This line also factors in the real possibility that Overeem lands a TD and finds a finish there.
Rozenstruik has attempted 0 body shots in his UFC fights. And watching Rozen vs Kovalev in RIZIN, I only spotted one jab to the body at range in a fight where he maybe threw 100 strikes or more. I think it's safe to say that Rozenstruik is a head hunter. Like Ladd kick catching, I wouldn't rely on Rozenstruik working the body at all. Again, not saying it's impossible, but I think a trap some people fall into is that they see a weakness for a fighter they want to fade, and then assume because the weakenss is so evident that the fighter they want to back will in fact attempt certain techniques to exploit it.
Maybe if you're taking a big dog and want to put that in as a potential PTV, that's fine. But with closer lined fights and favorites, it's probably a bad idea to let those assumptions affect confdience.
I'm on Overeem here, since I think he is going to try to grapple, and Rozenstruik really needs to put Overeems lights out early to win. Albini was able to get Rozen to the fence easily multiple times in a clinch and Rozen didn't seem to know what to do there, just kinda resting. It doesn't seem like he's an active clinch striker. I don't know much about his kickboxing background, but I'm guessing he didn't fight much muay thai (someone correct me on this if I'm wrong) and is used to having a ref break up clinches so he can headhunt with his boxing. People want to compare Rozen to Francis, but see how Francis actively and powerfully pushed Overeem around versus Rozen's lazy clinching versus Albini and you'll see a few big differences (size, strength, and even technique).
Well timed cilnching neutralizes boxing. We see this in muay thai all the time where good fighters get away with little head movement by just mixing clinching with a long guard and leanbacks. We saw this recently in MMA with Till/Gastelum. Of course this is heavyweight and the normal rules don't apply, but I'll take the guy with more tools whose chances of winning continually increase as time ticks away, rather than the Rd1 KO threat. For those that do like Rozenstruik to KO Overeem early, why not just pay a bit extra and get the under 1.5 rds. This line also factors in the real possibility that Overeem lands a TD and finds a finish there.
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