UFC on ESPN 7 Overeem vs Rozenstruik

Gugabe said:
Ngannou hits a lot harder, is more durable and is harder to TD and clinch against.
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nah not buying this. The difference between how hard JR and Ngannou hit is not relevant. They both hit plenty hard to put away Reem in one shot.

I also don't buy that Ngannou is more durable since JR has never been finished and there isn't really enough tape to know.

In terms of Reem effectively clinching or taking down JR I have my doubts. If Reem can successfully close the distance and clinch him for 3 rounds then props to him. I think ever second this fight stays on the feet Reem is in trouble.
The path to victory I see for Reem is to stay on his bike for 3 rounds and jab/teep from the outside. JR will likely gas after r1 or r2 anyway. I think JR -150 is where I would cap it. JR has almost no mileage on him whereas Reem is on the tail end of his career with a glass chin. I don't trust Reem at all in an exchange with JR which is tough to avoid for 3 rounds.
 
LEMONZEST said:
nah not buying this. The difference between how hard JR and Ngannou hit is not relevant. They both hit plenty hard to put away Reem in one shot.

I also don't buy that Ngannou is more durable since JR has never been finished and there isn't really enough tape to know.

In terms of Reem effectively clinching or taking down JR I have my doubts. If Reem can successfully close the distance and clinch him for 3 rounds then props to him. I think ever second this fight stays on the feet Reem is in trouble.
The path to victory I see for Reem is to stay on his bike for 3 rounds and jab/teep from the outside. JR will likely gas after r1 or r2 anyway. I think JR -150 is where I would cap it. JR has almost no mileage on him whereas Reem is on the tail end of his career with a glass chin. I don't trust Reem at all in an exchange with JR which is tough to avoid for 3 rounds.
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Reem has many paths to victory anywhere from range fighting, to clinch work, and ofc takedown and ground abuse. JR has only one path to victory and it's stiff shot to KO Reem. I'll take the many paths to victory at pick em' odds.
 
LEMONZEST said:
nah not buying this. The difference between how hard JR and Ngannou hit is not relevant. They both hit plenty hard to put away Reem in one shot.

I also don't buy that Ngannou is more durable since JR has never been finished and there isn't really enough tape to know.

In terms of Reem effectively clinching or taking down JR I have my doubts. If Reem can successfully close the distance and clinch him for 3 rounds then props to him. I think ever second this fight stays on the feet Reem is in trouble.
The path to victory I see for Reem is to stay on his bike for 3 rounds and jab/teep from the outside. JR will likely gas after r1 or r2 anyway. I think JR -150 is where I would cap it. JR has almost no mileage on him whereas Reem is on the tail end of his career with a glass chin. I don't trust Reem at all in an exchange with JR which is tough to avoid for 3 rounds.
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Rozen's clinch game sucks, he has near enough no idea what to do there and Reem has the best clinch game in the division. As for closing the distance to get there if Reem can do it to Ngannou, Mark Hunt, Pavlovich etc. he can certainly do it to a worse striker in Rozen who unlike the others also struggles to pull the trigger and tends to freeze up which Reem can likely easily make him do with feints and his movement. Plus Rozens response to forward movement is a predictable jab or long left hook which Reem can easily use to close the distance.

And Rozen was getting stunned by Albini and has some bad KO losses in kickboxing, his durability hasn't looked particularly good and Overeem can definitely KO him. The skill difference between the two is massive, Rozen has a reasonable shot but no way should he be the favourite. He should probably be more like +200 with his limited path to victory and clear skill disadvantage.
 
Reem does have good feints and I am sure the faster reflexes. Its high variance I will probably end up small on JR.
 
Reem probably cliches up and gets knocked out from there with an uppercut
 
Occams Razor says the big black kickboxer KO's Reem. Pity the odds are shit
 
Does Tim means beat Thiago alves 7 out of 10 times?
 
You two should fuck. I agree on Means, I managed to get him for 2.5u @1.57. Really confident on him here.
 
Red_2 said:
You two should fuck.
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tenor.gif
 
ill800 said:
Ya know Broe, I often get a pretty condescending vibe from you, and I don’t appreciate it.
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Man, you're a little bitch.

Virna, Sayles, Font, Rozenstruik and YaDong are the picks for me. Yana Kunitskaya as a decent size dog is a possibility.
 
Nice to see that everyone is taking advantage of the UFC break.
 
Enjoying this little break, or at least the time to get ahead on my reads.
In honor of the holidays I'll be cooking up some parlays nuttyer than you grandmas fruit cake.
So far I'm liking
Solecki -260
Janeiroba -230 (Tailing this one)
Font -130
Fish gold -170
Ya boy Yadong -190
1u for 7.5~
Any thoughts?
 
Sono07 said:
Enjoying this little break, or at least the time to get ahead on my reads.
In honor of the holidays I'll be cooking up some parlays nuttyer than you grandmas fruit cake.
So far I'm liking
Solecki -260
Janeiroba -230 (Tailing this one)
Font -130
Fish gold -170
Ya boy Yadong -190
1u for 7.5~
Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
Arent you afraid of Simons wrestling?
 
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