UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

[DabanggData]

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCVegas68&src=typed_query&f=live

Saturday, February 4
6:00 PM eastern
UFC Vegas 68
UFC Fight Night
Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak
UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Odds:
https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-spivak-2747
https://fightodds.io/odds/4441/ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-spivak

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/93977-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/69739

Promotional officials revealed that Lewis and Spivac will meet at UFC Vegas 68, which takes place Feb. 4 at the UFC APEX.

The event was initially targeted to take place in Seoul, South Korea, but that is no longer the case, multiple people with knowledge of the promotion’s plans confirmed.

Lewis and Spivac were scheduled to meet in the main event of UFC Vegas 65 in November, but the fight was scrapped during the broadcast after it was revealed Lewis suffered an illness, which then moved the light heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ion Cutelaba to the headline spot — a fight won by Nzechukwu.

Lewis will look to bounce back from a tough 2022 campaign which saw him suffer back-to-back knockout losses to Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich.

Spivac, on the other hand, will still get to take part in the biggest fight of his career and look to pick up his third straight win, and six of seven overall.

Spivak will be -170, 63%




.

 

[B.Goetz]

 

[mkess101]

^^^You guys may think this is paranoid or whatever, but it's likely that the guys who set opening lines have searches set up to scope for stuff like this before they set lines. They'll use every tool there is to avoid unnecessary exposure, so it's a pretty good bet (pun intended) that they'll scour this site, any Reddit MMA betting threads, etc to try to get a glimpse on how the betting public sees things. I've been guilty of it too so please don't take this as me calling you out. Guessing at where lines will be set is one thing. But then also saying "I will hammer __________ if the books set it there!" give them insight as to where $ could come in. From one post? Probably not. If they get commentary like that on every card from multiple posters/sites? Absolutely. You could be costing yourself $.

You could always try to dupe them by going opposite too haha. "OMG Black Beast at + odds here??? Will smash that!!!"

 

[Stat_Collector]

^^^You guys may think this is paranoid or whatever, but it's likely that the guys who set opening lines have searches set up to scope for stuff like this before they set lines. They'll use every tool there is to avoid unnecessary exposure, so it's a pretty good bet (pun intended) that they'll scour this site, any Reddit MMA betting threads, etc to try to get a glimpse on how the betting public sees things. I've been guilty of it too so please don't take this as me calling you out. Guessing at where lines will be set is one thing. But then also saying "I will hammer __________ if the books set it there!" give them insight as to where $ could come in. From one post? Probably not. If they get commentary like that on every card from multiple posters/sites? Absolutely. You could be costing yourself $.

You could always try to dupe them by going opposite too haha. "OMG Black Beast at + odds here??? Will smash that!!!"

maybe they're Lewis bettors in secret.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

^^^You guys may think this is paranoid or whatever, but it's likely that the guys who set opening lines have searches set up to scope for stuff like this before they set lines. They'll use every tool there is to avoid unnecessary exposure, so it's a pretty good bet (pun intended) that they'll scour this site, any Reddit MMA betting threads, etc to try to get a glimpse on how the betting public sees things. I've been guilty of it too so please don't take this as me calling you out. Guessing at where lines will be set is one thing. But then also saying "I will hammer __________ if the books set it there!" give them insight as to where $ could come in. From one post? Probably not. If they get commentary like that on every card from multiple posters/sites? Absolutely. You could be costing yourself $.

You could always try to dupe them by going opposite too haha. "OMG Black Beast at + odds here??? Will smash that!!!"

I would agree but this line has already been set due to this being a rescheduled fight

they will just pick up where they left off with odds

 

[mkess101]

I would agree but this line has already been set due to this being a rescheduled fight

they will just pick up where they left off with odds

True. Bad example. But we do it here other times a lot.

 

[mkess101]

maybe they're Lewis bettors in secret.

Yeah that was my last line haha. Trying to dupe the books.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah that was my last line haha. Trying to dupe the books.

i usually already made my bet when i say im gonna hammer a line, when i see a dog pick that is nice and it hasn't been posted on betonline yet, i keep my mouth shut. I do think lines can move when certain groups of the mma betting community bet the same fighter, mostly lurkers. I've had a few over this year dm me saying thanks for giving them a pick, they have a whitebelt and very little posts. look at the views vs post ratio on a lot of these threads, you bet over a thousand different people, enough to fill an auditorium are here fishing for bets.

 

[mkess101]

i usually already made my bet when i say im gonna hammer a line, when i see a dog pick that is nice and it hasn't been posted on betonline yet, i keep my mouth shut. I do think lines can move when certain groups of the mma betting community bet the same fighter, mostly lurkers. I've had a few over this year dm me saying thanks for giving them a pick, they have a whitebelt and very little posts. look at the views vs post ratio on a lot of these threads, you bet over a thousand different people, enough to fill an auditorium are here fishing for bets.

If you've already made the bet that means books already set opening lines so it's not really what I'm talking about though. I'm saying if we constantly give our views on where we think lines should be BEFORE the lines are even released, we're giving the books free info before they set the lines.

Edit: NM you referenced it in your second sentence. I gotta read more carefully LOL.

 

[Tebowned]

I know it was supposed to be in SK but I find it funny that some post-pandemic cards are in the US but look like overseas cards.

 

[DabanggData]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-spivak-2747

UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

 

[burge13]

This card is grim

 

[magpie878]

The odds could be -1000 on main event not going distance and it's still worth it

 

[guesswhoseback]

^^^You guys may think this is paranoid or whatever, but it's likely that the guys who set opening lines have searches set up to scope for stuff like this before they set lines. They'll use every tool there is to avoid unnecessary exposure, so it's a pretty good bet (pun intended) that they'll scour this site, any Reddit MMA betting threads, etc to try to get a glimpse on how the betting public sees things. I've been guilty of it too so please don't take this as me calling you out. Guessing at where lines will be set is one thing. But then also saying "I will hammer __________ if the books set it there!" give them insight as to where $ could come in. From one post? Probably not. If they get commentary like that on every card from multiple posters/sites? Absolutely. You could be costing yourself $.

You could always try to dupe them by going opposite too haha. "OMG Black Beast at + odds here??? Will smash that!!!"

I alwalys thought it was CPU generated on how the odds or spreads start out? So is there an actual group of people sitting down and saying hmm let's set the line at this?

 

[guesswhoseback]

The odds could be -1000 on main event not going distance and it's still worth it

Same thing people said about Lewis/ngannou

 

[mkess101]

I alwalys thought it was CPU generated on how the odds or spreads start out? So is there an actual group of people sitting down and saying hmm let's set the line at this?

For MMA believe it or not it was basically one guy for a long time, Nick Kalikas. I stopped paying attention awhile back as to who does it now.

 

[magpie878]

Same thing people said about Lewis/ngannou

That was long ago, and not that I'm betting -1000.

Lewis is older, has quit more, openly says he doesn't want 5 round fights, whatever. This one is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

[Thesnake101]

Gonna wait until the weigh ins cuz apparently Derrick is looking like his Legacy FC self, slim.

If he's in actual shape then I could see him overwhelming Sergey early.

 

[mkess101]

Gonna wait until the weigh ins cuz apparently Derrick is looking like his Legacy FC self, slim.

If he's in actual shape then I could see him overwhelming Sergey early.

My first instinct is opposite. Derrick has never relied on speed, footwork, cardio...everything has always been about power and some durability. Even any success he's had with getups in his grappling has been because of pure strength, no technique. He basically bench presses dudes off him. So him being slim...I actually think may hurt him. His cardio will still be shit. His power may (or may not) suffer a little. He may not be as physically strong which will make it easier for Spivak to get him down (and keep him there)--which we all know is gonna be the gameplan for Sergei from the opening bell.

Lewis PTV is a rd 1 or 2 KO, and that's really it. Being slimmer does nothing to enhance the chance of that happening imo, and may hurt his ability to fend off the grappling long enough to have a shot at landing something big.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Might be the worst card in ufc history