UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

[Stat_Collector]

The same way Motoya just beat Ota and Kuramoto. These high level Japanese wrestlers get crushed against good well rounded grapplers.

He's not just a good wrestler, he has nasty strikes, fast twitch hooks , nasty thai plum knees, even ended a fight with a high kick. He's very well rounded, his only minor holes are his defensive guard, sometimes, he leaves his chin exposed being overly aggressive. I think he runs through him.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

The Jesus Aguilar vs Tatsuro Taira is crazy. I mean Tatsuro is good, like really good, but he has beaten pretty weak competition in the UFC and it's not like he is just steam rolling them. He wins, but the fights are somewhat even.
Aquilar is pretty solid, watched as many fights that I could find, he's not a can at all. I think this fight will be competitive. I would certainly lean Tatsuro for the win, but jikes this line is way way to wide.

Need to take the dog shot here.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

The Jesus Aguilar vs Tatsuro Taira is crazy. I mean Tatsuro is good, like really good, but he has beaten pretty weak competition in the UFC and it's not like he is just steam rolling them. He wins, but the fights are somewhat even.
Aquilar is pretty solid, watched as many fights that I could find, he's not a can at all. I think this fight will be competitive. I would certainly lean Tatsuro for the win, but jikes this line is way way to wide.

Need to take the dog shot here.

Aguilar is more of a sub guy though, outside of a meme gilly I don't see how he outgrapples Taira. Seems like a relatively straightforward back take, RNC fight to me.

 

[Tyrone woods]

Anyone think tiuliulin has a chance vs the iron turtle?

 

[guesswhoseback]

Yep, and Walker vs Santos

and Glover/hill

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Anyone think tiuliulin has a chance vs the iron turtle?

I'm seriously considering it, yes.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Dogs I'm thinking about.

Lewis - We went back and forth on this last time.

Nelson - I don't think he's very good but Superboy hasn't fought in 3 years and hasn't won in nearly 7 years.

Tiuliulin - Seems like a decent matchup for him. He at least offers decent resistance to takedowns and Park isn't as good a wrestler as Khizriev is. Also a pretty violent finisher given the chance.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dogs I'm thinking about.

Lewis - We went back and forth on this last time.

Nelson - I don't think he's very good but Superboy hasn't fought in 3 years and hasn't won in nearly 7 years.

Tiuliulin - Seems like a decent matchup for him. He at least offers decent resistance to takedowns and Park isn't as good a wrestler as Khizriev is. Also a pretty violent finisher given the chance.

Lewis and Nelson I agree. I prefer Spivak but Im going to give him the robocop treatment and not overexpose myself against a heavy-handed fighter like Lewis, dangerous fight for both sides betting wise.

I think Tiu has a chance for the first 1.5 rnds. After that Park beats him with wrestling, better stamina, clinch fighting , and jabbing him up. Caution fight for sure if you are a parlay bettor like i am.

 

[Thesnake101]

Only issue I see with Nelson is that his gas tank and chin are two very big issues.

Honestly could see a vintage Choi performance with an early counter KO.

 

[StewDogg11]

Wish I would’ve gotten on Ivanov earlier. He crashed from +160 to +130 on my book in like a day.

 

[mkess101]

Gotta ramp up the discussion here boys! Need some plays.

So far thinking Tybura decision, Spivak itd, Taira sub, Tiuliulian ML, Jung KO, Park (vs Choi) decision, Saragih it'd.

What else fellas???

Edit: Maybe Nelson ML to fade Superboy's ridiculous layoff. Nelson...meh. But 3 years off?? Who the hell knows what we get with Choi. And its not like he was super sound defensively before...

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Wish I would’ve gotten on Ivanov earlier. He crashed from +160 to +130 on my book in like a day.

I kind of liked him at the price but he is a low output point fighter who looked bad in his last fight. He was gassed in rd 3

 

[StewDogg11]

I kind of liked him at the price but he is a low output point fighter who looked bad in his last fight. He was gassed in rd 3

Granted it was several years ago but he did go 5 with JDS. Was he gassed in that fight? I can’t remember.

 

[mkess101]

Granted it was several years ago but he did go 5 with JDS. Was he gassed in that fight? I can’t remember.

Blagoy is durable as hell but super low volume and below average power for a HW. Bad combo imo, not a guy I want to bet on. I like Tybura to be more busy and to win the inevitable cage hugging war that this fight will end up as a lot of the time.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Granted it was several years ago but he did go 5 with JDS. Was he gassed in that fight? I can’t remember.

only reason I remember is because I bet on him and remember him looking bad and being gassed midway through the 2nd round. His cardio typically was solid before that fight

 

[Thesnake101]

Gotta ramp up the discussion here boys! Need some plays.

So far thinking Tybura decision, Spivak itd, Taira sub, Tiuliulian ML, Jung KO, Park (vs Choi) decision, Saragih it'd.

What else fellas???

Edit: Maybe Nelson ML to fade Superboy's ridiculous layoff. Nelson...meh. But 3 years off?? Who the hell knows what we get with Choi. And its not like he was super sound defensively before...

Doo was no defensive whiz but he's able to take a good amount of punishment before wilting and always looks good early, which is when Nelson is at his most dangerous.

I think there will be a time to fade Choi again, but this fight isn't it imo. It's the perfect softball matchup.

 

[mkess101]

Doo was no defensive whiz but he's able to take a good amount of punishment before wilting and always looks good early, which is when Nelson is at his most dangerous.

I think there will be a time to fade Choi again, but this fight isn't it imo. It's the perfect softball matchup.

That's true, his chin was outstanding. Not just in the amazing fight with Cub (but especially then).

But damn...3 year layoff. I agree Nelson is someone they **think** Superboy should beat. And if he's close to what he was he will. But that is soooo long without actual competition.

 

[sonhow]

That's true, his chin was outstanding. Not just in the amazing fight with Cub (but especially then).

But damn...3 year layoff. I agree Nelson is someone they **think** Superboy should beat. And if he's close to what he was he will. But that is soooo long without actual competition.

On other hand maybe he has "healed up" from previous beatdowns. I think that Cubb war took lot out of him but he is still pretty young I believe early thirties so theres a decent chance to work some things out(or have worked out already). I dont think it's likely he becomes champ or anything right now but I think it's still super likely he rolls here unless Kyle catches him in the first two minutes.

Btw did he do army time or is the layoff due to injuries tho?

 

[mkess101]

On other hand maybe he has "healed up" from previous beatdowns. I think that Cubb war took lot out of him but he is still pretty young I believe early thirties so theres a decent chance to work some things out(or have worked out already). I dont think it's likely he becomes champ or anything right now but I think it's still super likely he rolls here unless Kyle catches him in the first two minutes.

Btw did he do army time or is the layoff due to injuries tho?

No clue about why the long layoff. anyone else know?

 

[Thesnake101]

On other hand maybe he has "healed up" from previous beatdowns. I think that Cubb war took lot out of him but he is still pretty young I believe early thirties so theres a decent chance to work some things out(or have worked out already). I dont think it's likely he becomes champ or anything right now but I think it's still super likely he rolls here unless Kyle catches him in the first two minutes.

Btw did he do army time or is the layoff due to injuries tho?

No clue about why the long layoff. anyone else know?

He was gunning for a return back in mid 2021 but got injured. Military service thing is a bit confusing but he's free to dedicate himself to MMA now.

Ring rust is a factor but it's not like this is his first time dealing with that, and even though he lost to Jourdain he looked good early before getting injured and finished. If his body holds up then he rolls imo.