UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

[magpie878]

The second Lewis gets hit these days, he looks like he just wants to leave. If he gets taken down, outside of maybe one successful attempt at getting up, I think he quits like he's done in his recent past.

There's always the chance of the Lewis KO, but I'm not betting on it.

 

[jnes]

Damn I already played 2u on Tybura at -170 and thought that was good, now he's -138 wtf

 

[BigSteve]

Lewis said he is weighing exactly the same just feels healthier. Makes sense.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

The second Lewis gets hit these days, he looks like he just wants to leave. If he gets taken down, outside of maybe one successful attempt at getting up, I think he quits like he's done in his recent past.

recency bias.
let's look at things objectively. Lewis' achilles heel (historicaly) is aggressive and/or technical punchers. he lost purely via grappling only to DC. because it's DC! every other time he lost a fight it was because he got knocked out, ON HIS FEET.

There's always the chance of the Lewis KO, but I'm not betting on it.

okey, but it does happen way too often to be ignored. and in 5 rounds (and in the small octagon) lewis has plenty of time and opportunities to make it happen, even if he can't get it, his style of fighting has swayed lot of judges to give him close decisions in the past. he is tactical with his burst of violence - near the end of the rounds, so it's fresh in the judges' memory and they usually give him said round.

 

[magpie878]

recency bias.
let's look at things objectively. Lewis' achilles heel (historicaly) is aggressive and/or technical punchers. he lost purely via grappling only to DC. because it's DC! every other time he lost a fight it was because he got knocked out, ON HIS FEET.

okey, but it does happen way too often to be ignored. and in 5 rounds (and in the small octagon) lewis has plenty of time and opportunities to make it happen, even if he can't get it, his style of fighting has swayed lot of judges to give him close decisions in the past. he is tactical with his burst of violence - near the end of the rounds, so it's fresh in the judges' memory and they usually give him said round.

I flat out said "in his recent past"... if you call it bias, so be it. How many "grapplers" has he fought overall?

His recent past is quitting soon after taking a good shot or two. He flat out said several fights ago he does NOT want 5-round main event fights. Yet here he is, again. Think whatever you like, I wouldn't be surprised if he clips Spivak early, or clearly doesn't want to be there beyond the first or second round.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@magpie878 i acknowledge all that, but still - i put more weight on long historical data and proven facts.

will add that lewis' recent departure from his "sit and wait and then kill a guy with one punch" strategy and now wanting to be more proactive is a bad move, it just doesn't suit him even if he's lighter and has more gastank. but spivak is still a comfortable match-up even for a worse version of lewis. 5 rounds in a small cage, i think spivak has limited wiggle room for mistakes.

 

[StewDogg11]

I flat out said "in his recent past"... if you call it bias, so be it. How many "grapplers" has he fought overall?

His recent past is quitting soon after taking a good shot or two. He flat out said several fights ago he does NOT want 5-round main event fights. Yet here he is, again. Think whatever you like, I wouldn't be surprised if he clips Spivak early, or clearly doesn't want to be there beyond the first or second round.

How is getting cracked and then the ref stops the fight too early which you then protest quitting?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Lewis weighs in at 265, Spivac 255

We definitely aren’t getting a smaller Lewis here

 

[Guld]

I like Lewis in this one.
Just a heads up that his "by stoppage" odds payout is better than his "by KO" prop. (On Betway)

 

[Post 2 Decision]

I like Lewis in this one.
Just a heads up that his "by stoppage" odds payout is better than his "by KO" prop. (On Betway)

I think Spivak likely wins, but Lewis ITD at like +250 is just too good to not take a stab at

 

[michi972]

The only Lewis fights that I predicted correctly were the fights he lost. I probably was wrong in all the fights he won

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I think Spivak likely wins, but Lewis ITD at like +250 is just too good to not take a stab at

His reduced line at 5dimes is currently @+260, and his itd @+315 if you have access to that. I'm placing a flyer on his round 1 prop for +775. I'm keeping it supersmall for this event, nothing too interesting betting or fan wise on this card.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Lewis odds getting ridiculously wide. Has anything happened with Derrick today, they're getting to the stage where I can't really say no.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I think Spivak likely wins, but Lewis ITD at like +250 is just too good to not take a stab at

You can get +285 on him just to win at the moment in some places.

 

[JC615]

Betway has a Lewis KO/TKO/DQ boost +350

 

[sonhow]

Lewis odds getting ridiculously wide. Has anything happened with Derrick today, they're getting to the stage where I can't really say no.

Nothing shady going on right?

Spoiler: shady guy

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Nothing shady going on right?

Spoiler: shady guy

I've bet it anyway, YOLO.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Lewis odds getting ridiculously wide. Has anything happened with Derrick today, they're getting to the stage where I can't really say no.

injury rumors

 

[Macaque]

injury rumors

You know what kind?

 

[guesswhoseback]

Circa usually does, but Bellator lines don't come out until Thursday at the earliest, and sometimes early on Friday. I don't remember if any other books aside from Circa do.

im at excaliubur