UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Denis isn't that easy to take down. It took Khizriev a while to keep him there and Khizriev is really good at that stuff. He's also aggressive and powerful too. Park I think is a bit plodding which works fine for him most of the time but imo not so well here.

Khizriev went 2/3 on TDs against Tiuliulin and the striking was relatively even. Tiuliulin was also held down for nearly 2.5 minutes during the first round and nearly insta subbed on the second completed takedown. Pickett also completed his first takedown.

He has looked relatively easy to takedown and keep down in the UFC.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Don't forget that there's like 10 straight hours of MMA betting with Bellator and UFC this Saturday.

mkess, gueswhoseback, and myself will be in Vegas during this time. If you feel the itch to gamble and you want to join the fun, send me a PM and you can stay with me for free if you want to save money on a hotel. I'll also be back the following weekend for UFC 284, and the same offer stands.

Note: Only send me a PM if you're a regular around the betting forum, no new accounts.

Do u know of any casinos that offer bellator props as in over undera

 

[PuertoRican]

Do u know of any casinos that offer bellator props as in over undera

Circa usually does, but Bellator lines don't come out until Thursday at the earliest, and sometimes early on Friday. I don't remember if any other books aside from Circa do.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Not a fan of Lewis losing a bunch of weight before this fight. I feel like his size helps his grappling as he lacks the technique. The just get up defense has actually worked quite well in the past.

 

[StewDogg11]

Not a fan of Lewis losing a bunch of weight before this fight. I feel like his size helps his grappling as he lacks the technique. The just get up defense has actually worked quite well in the past.

Does anyone have any actual idea what he’ll weigh in at besides that kinda blurry Instagram post of him jogging? Maybe his doctor told him he needed to lose some weight for health reasons or something.

 

[mkess101]

Not a fan of Lewis losing a bunch of weight before this fight. I feel like his size helps his grappling as he lacks the technique. The just get up defense has actually worked quite well in the past.

100% agree.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Does anyone have any actual idea what he’ll weigh in at besides that kinda blurry Instagram post of him jogging? Maybe his doctor told him he needed to lose some weight for health reasons or something.

 

[StewDogg11]

Props to him for getting healthy. What are we thinking there? 245? He obviously had to cut weight to make 265 at his previous weight.

 

[mkess101]

Props to him for getting healthy. What are we thinking there? 245? He obviously had to cut weight to make 265 at his previous weight.

256 is my guess. I think he was coming into the cage around 275-280 previously after rehydrating. Just a guess.

In the end it probably won't mean much. He's still a giant dude with massive power but still won't have the footwork or elusiveness to avoid Spivac getting to his legs and taking him down. I think the only possible effect would be what @BigDramaShow26 said in whether it saps a little raw physical strength from him to where he can't just bench press Spivac off him once or twice, sans any real technique.

Either Lewis lands a killshot early or (more likely) he gets taken down and beaten up and can't do a thing to stop Spivac's grappling.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Props to him for getting healthy. What are we thinking there? 245? He obviously had to cut weight to make 265 at his previous weight.

I dunno. He’s a big dude. He may just not have to cut

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

256 is my guess. I think he was coming into the cage around 275-280 previously after rehydrating. Just a guess.

In the end it probably won't mean much. He's still a giant dude with massive power but still won't have the footwork or elusiveness to avoid Spivac getting to his legs and taking him down. I think the only possible effect would be what @BigDramaShow26 said in whether it saps a little raw physical strength from him to where he can't just bench press Spivac off him once or twice, sans any real technique.

Either Lewis lands a killshot early or (more likely) he gets taken down and beaten up and can't do a thing to stop Spivac's grappling.

Spivak doesn’t exactly have a top heavy game and his takedowns require him getting to body locks.

Beast will have his opportunities to get the ko.

 

[mkess101]

Spivak doesn’t exactly have a top heavy game and his takedowns require him getting to body locks.

Beast will have his opportunities to get the ko.

Spivac has improved his grappling a ton. He's not super top heavy, but he's gotten really good at re-matting once his opponents start their getups. (When they post and start to rise he uses the opportunity to get that body lock back and drag them back down). I agree Spivac relies a lot on the body lock but at this point Derrick seems so unable to fend off anyone dragging him down that I'd be stunned if he can do it here. BB isn't winning by stuffing any actual TD attempts to gain distance and score the KO imo. If he wins, it's going to be because he just times something right like he did vs Blaydes or because Spivac is dumb enough to stand and trade with him at all and eats a bomb.

 

[StewDogg11]

I dunno. He’s a big dude. He may just not have to cut

One myself included would assume that if you weigh in right at the limit numerous times you at least had to cut a little weight.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

One myself included would assume that if you weigh in right at the limit numerous times you at least had to cut a little weight.

Yea I’m saying he may have lost enough where he’s not going to cut anymore and maybe he’s still close to the limit

 

[Stat_Collector]

Spivac has improved his grappling a ton. He's not super top heavy, but he's gotten really good at re-matting once his opponents start their getups. (When they post and start to rise he uses the opportunity to get that body lock back and drag them back down). I agree Spivac relies a lot on the body lock but at this point Derrick seems so unable to fend off anyone dragging him down that I'd be stunned if he can do it here. BB isn't winning by stuffing any actual TD attempts to gain distance and score the KO imo. If he wins, it's going to be because he just times something right like he did vs Blaydes or because Spivac is dumb enough to stand and trade with him at all and eats a bomb.

I'm watching his fight with Olly now. holy shit his guard is trash on the feet. throws too wild at times, he's getting tagged a lot by a senior citizen. i can easily see Lewis putting him to sleep if he goes throwing wild combinations like that. He does a terrible job at throwing naked hooks without blocking his chin, i see Lewis catching him with a right hook lights out. Power is the last thing to go and Lewis can probably still crack at a solid level.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Yea I’m saying he may have lost enough where he’s not going to cut anymore and maybe he’s still close to the limit

I think even that is a big bonus though. Derrick tends to start mentally quitting when he gets tired and if he's fitter anyway and also has the added bonus of not draining himself during fight week...

 

[Stat_Collector]

what Lewis will do to Spivak, 3rd rnd ko prop is the best bet. Spivak gasses after rnd 2.

 

[Thesnake101]

what Lewis will do to Spivak, 3rd rnd ko prop is the best bet. Spivak gasses after rnd 2.

I'm just going with his KO prop instead. Slim Lewis to do what Walt already did once.

I reckon Spivak is the rightful favorite, but I can't back him at his current price. May look into his sub prop as a hedge.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm just going with his KO prop instead. Slim Lewis to do what Walt already did once.

I reckon Spivak is the rightful favorite, but I can't back him at his current price. May look into his sub prop as a hedge.

proper move is to treat lewis like a punt play. If spivak doesn't get lewis out by rnd 2 , live bet Lewis if he is at dog odds. Spivak gassed against olly in rnd 3, and Spivak isn't going to rnd 5, Lewis can still hit till rnd 5. The exp difference is wide here. Only if Lewis shows up super washed does he lose, I think he still has bite.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I have to admit Lewis is a gasser too. seems like its going to not go passed the 2nd or 3rd rnd for either.

maybe the weight cut will make him a better stamina wise.