UFC Vegas 68: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivak, February 4

[Thesnake101]

I think Lee trashes him wherever he wants, on the feet or on the ground. I see Lee as a future ranked fighter.

Lee's the guy who ran through Xie Bin, right? Saw a highlight of that on twitter a while back, I do think he might be one of the Road to UFC guys who might pan out.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Lee's the guy who ran through Xie Bin, right? Saw a highlight of that on twitter a while back, I do think he might be one of the Road to UFC guys who might pan out.

Yeah that's the dude.

 

[Tebowned]

Granted it was several years ago but he did go 5 with JDS. Was he gassed in that fight? I can’t remember.

I was there live in Boise haha. I don't think he gassed but definitely was tired. It was a very slow paced fight though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

what are the mismatches?

Derek Lewis , TiuLiulin , maybe Kyle Nelson are the only underdogs who have a chance to upset the favorite. And Jeka was evens when i laid a bet on him so him too.

I lean 65% Spivak, Choi, and Yong Park, the rest over 75%. All the other favorites are more explosive and and have better boxing and grappling or grappling defense. Better backgrounds as well.

Worst case scenario is some of them being overly aggressive like Rinya or Yeong lee and they get caught by a counter punch.

Taira and Yeon Kim i might fade or lower exposure. Too juice and wmma not my cup of tea.

Any underdogs in perticular that you think will upset the favorites that i didn't mentioned?

 

[EndlessCritic]

Derek Lewis , TiuLiulin , maybe Kyle Nelson are the only underdogs who have a chance to upset the favorite. And Jeka was evens when i laid a bet on him so him too.

I lean 65% Spivak, Choi, and Yong Park, the rest over 75%. All the other favorites are more explosive and and have better boxing and grappling or grappling defense. Better backgrounds as well.

Worst case scenario is some of them being overly aggressive like Rinya or Yeong lee and they get caught by a counter punch.

Taira and Yeon Kim i might fade or lower exposure. Too juice and wmma not my cup of tea.

Any underdogs in perticular that you think will upset the favorites that i didn't mentioned?

Kinoshita is absurdly overpriced.

While I want Da Un Jung to win, Clark has a pretty clear path to victory.

I maintain Kazama is a live dog. Nakamura is used to running through opponents, and Kazama will make him fight.

Ji Yeon Kim has a way of fighting to the level of her opponent. Easy fade.

Taira -1200 is a joke.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Kinoshita is absurdly overpriced.

While I want Da Un Jung to win, Clark has a pretty clear path to victory.

I maintain Kazama is a live dog. Nakamura is used to running through opponents, and Kazama will make him fight.

Ji Yeon Kim has a way of fighting to the level of her opponent. Easy fade.

Taira -1200 is a joke.

Kinoshita is just too fast and has more power, don't see him losing here, not playable for a straight bet, but he wins this easy and a parlay is playable. Also ko prop 1st-2nd rnd is the move here if you don't like chalky parlays.

Da Un Jung could flake, but let's not forget how he outwrestled william knight easy and i don't see a major gap between Devin Clarke, william knight or Aonzo Menifield, they all hit the ceiling in terms of skills. Slow ,low gas tank, trigger shy after rnd 1.

Kazama got put on his back 3x by an inferior grappler to Rinya. I don't see him dominating the grappling exchanges here, he's going to be the one on the defense here against a superior wrestler. Don't let his low rated subs fool you . He's not going to sub Rinya like those chumps. And on the feet Rinya just has a explosiveness to him. His only way of dropping the ball is being overzealous and getting caught, he's one of the fighters i mentioned being too eager to play Russian roulette and go too hard, but his stamina is good for a fast pace in three rounds.


the last two are prop bets at best. may not even play either.

 

[Thesnake101]

What's the reasoning behind backing Denis over Turtle here? I'll admit I may be letting Tiuliulin's record cloud my judgement too much, but it feels like the line's accurate to me.

Outside of the Anders fight I think Park has been pretty consistent through all of his showings and just ran through the weakest opponent they've given him in Holmes. Plus this was originally a Korean card so it's obvious they were trying to set him with a win.

 

[PuertoRican]

Don't forget that there's like 10 straight hours of MMA betting with Bellator and UFC this Saturday.

mkess, gueswhoseback, and myself will be in Vegas during this time. If you feel the itch to gamble and you want to join the fun, send me a PM and you can stay with me for free if you want to save money on a hotel. I'll also be back the following weekend for UFC 284, and the same offer stands.

Note: Only send me a PM if you're a regular around the betting forum, no new accounts.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

rewatching aguilar dwcs fight was enough for me to put a whale play on taira itd at -138.

 

[Bakayoko]

I think Lee trashes him wherever he wants, on the feet or on the ground. I see Lee as a future ranked fighter.

I watched a few fights of both,still need to watch some more of Lee on the ground.Lee packs more power for sure,he's got a good 1-2,nice uppercut and a solid bodykick.He's more dangerous om the feet then Yi,although he's hittable,seems he has a good chin though.Can be taken down,perhaps a path to victory for the Chinese,he's scrappy and engages a lot in the grappling,if doesn't get reversed he could steal some control time,perhaps grind a decision.But it's a good bet on Lee I like it,just wouldn't call it exactly a mismatch,but I think he wins at least on more damage.Certianly like it a lot more than Kinoshita.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What's the reasoning behind backing Denis over Turtle here? I'll admit I may be letting Tiuliulin's record cloud my judgement too much, but it feels like the line's accurate to me.

Outside of the Anders fight I think Park has been pretty consistent through all of his showings and just ran through the weakest opponent they've given him in Holmes. Plus this was originally a Korean card so it's obvious they were trying to set him with a win.

Denis isn't that easy to take down. It took Khizriev a while to keep him there and Khizriev is really good at that stuff. He's also aggressive and powerful too. Park I think is a bit plodding which works fine for him most of the time but imo not so well here.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Kinoshita is absurdly overpriced.

While I want Da Un Jung to win, Clark has a pretty clear path to victory.

I maintain Kazama is a live dog. Nakamura is used to running through opponents, and Kazama will make him fight.

Ji Yeon Kim has a way of fighting to the level of her opponent. Easy fade.

Taira -1200 is a joke.

Rinya fought for three rounds against Caetano so he has had to go longer.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

What's the reasoning behind backing Denis over Turtle here? I'll admit I may be letting Tiuliulin's record cloud my judgement too much, but it feels like the line's accurate to me.

Outside of the Anders fight I think Park has been pretty consistent through all of his showings and just ran through the weakest opponent they've given him in Holmes. Plus this was originally a Korean card so it's obvious they were trying to set him with a win.

Park is a way better grappler, better boxer, and probably more powerful as well. Not even sure what a path to victory for Tiululin looks like considering his hands aren't that heavy so a one punch knockout isnt even there. Tiululin is low level.

I think some folks still are resentful that Park got the decision over Anders even though it was the correct decision.

I didn't think Park looked great in the first round against Holmes but he adjusted and finished the fight. Park is definitely the play.

 

[Thesnake101]

Denis isn't that easy to take down. It took Khizriev a while to keep him there and Khizriev is really good at that stuff. He's also aggressive and powerful too. Park I think is a bit plodding which works fine for him most of the time but imo not so well here.

Park isn't that easy to finish though, and I feel like Denis may be getting too much credit for that Khizriev performance. We'll see I suppose.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Park isn't that easy to finish though, and I feel like Denis may be getting too much credit for that Khizriev performance. We'll see I suppose.

Park nearly losing a decision to eryk anders should give you pause at -210

 

[Thesnake101]

Park nearly losing a decision to eryk anders should give you pause at -210

Normally it would, but after Eryk wrecked Daukaus I don't know what to make of it anymore.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Normally it would, but after Eryk wrecked Daukaus I don't know what to make of it anymore.

That was the best he’s ever fought and daukaus was overrated

 

[PuertoRican]

Normally it would, but after Eryk wrecked Daukaus I don't know what to make of it anymore.

I'm not making a case for Anders or Park, but Kyle Daukaus is terrible. His claim to fame was looking good in a pure grappling fight when he lost to Brendan Allen on short notice.

I made good money fading Daukaus in his last two UFC fights before he was released from the promotion. He's too easy to hit, his striking sucks, has nothing if he can't get on top of you, and his wrestling isn't even great.

Anders has two wins in the last 3+ years, and they're over Darren Stewart and Kyle Daukaus, both of whom are no longer in the UFC.

 

[Thesnake101]

That was the best he’s ever fought and daukaus was overrated

I'm not making a case for Anders or Park, but Kyle Daukaus is terrible. His claim to fame was looking good in a pure grappling fight when he lost to Brendan Allen on short notice.

I made good money fading Daukaus in his last two UFC fights before he was released from the promotion. He's too easy to hit, his striking sucks, has nothing if he can't get on top of you, and his wrestling isn't even great.

Anders has two wins in the last 3+ years, and they're over Darren Stewart and Kyle Daukaus, both of whom are no longer in the UFC.

Oh, that's a very accurate assessment of Kyle, I just don't think Denis will pick up a win against anyone other than truly bottom of the barrel MWs like Pickett.

I mean, at the end of the day the most impressive thing he's done is look competitive with a relatively untested Khizriev making his UFC debut, and he still got throttled in the second round.

I guess I'm just not seeing anything in Denis that would make me trust him at his current price especially since he's normally a KO or bust kinda guy against someone who's only been stopped once by Robocop.

 

[StewDogg11]

I'm not making a case for Anders or Park, but Kyle Daukaus is terrible. His claim to fame was looking good in a pure grappling fight when he lost to Brendan Allen on short notice.

I made good money fading Daukaus in his last two UFC fights before he was released from the promotion. He's too easy to hit, his striking sucks, has nothing if he can't get on top of you, and his wrestling isn't even great.

Anders has two wins in the last 3+ years, and they're over Darren Stewart and Kyle Daukaus, both of whom are no longer in the UFC.

His claim to fame was also being the smaller shittier Daukaus brother. And then Chris ended up not even being that good lol.