UFC Vegas 80: Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green, October 7

B.Goetz said:
Algeo is now -125 on BOF. Anybody have a strong lean on this fight? I'm tempted.
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Algeo is on a good winning curve. For Hernandez it's been a bumpy road :/
I think Algeo will work on his chain wrestling, and go to the decision; in his favour!
 
Karolina is the best value in the card imo …. Belbita is terrible …. Karolina at -170 is a steal that I’m going to bankroll
 
Gutierrez is +162??? Am i missing something? Why is he the dog here? I thought I was reading this line wrong and it was flipped (w/ Guttierez being -188 fave).

Cutelaba -138 is also weird. I dont know why Cutelaba line is so close. Lins is the EXACT type of LHW comp that Ion looks like a -600 favorite against and steamrolls. Then some get false hope into thinking hes a potential ranked level LHW. Hes kind of like Terence McKinney.

I think Morono +150 and Alhassan +300 are worthwhile dogs too. Cant lie theres a part of me that wants to bet Bobby too but 4 fights in 10 months as a 37yo LW is tough. I think he'll cover +300 just not sure if he'll win. He is not easy to grapplefuck and Dawson aint Islam. Honestly think this card has potential to be big betting wise.
 
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ExitLUPin said:
Gutierrez is +162??? Am i missing something? Why is he the dog here? I thought I was reading this line wrong and it was flipped (w/ Guttierez being -188 fave).

Cutelaba -138 is also weird. I dont know why Cutelaba line is so close. Lins is the EXACT type of LHW comp that Ion looks like a -600 favorite against and steamrolls. Then some get false hope into thinking hes a potential ranked level LHW. Hes kind of like Terence McKinney.

I think Morono +150 and Alhassan +300 are worthwhile dogs too. Cant lie theres a part of me that wants to bet Bobby too but 4 fights in 10 months as a 37yo LW is tough. I think he'll cover +300 just not sure if he'll win. He is not easy to grapplefuck and Dawson aint Islam. Honestly think this card has potential to be big betting wise.
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What does a path to victory for Alhassan look like?

Of course its possible he could KO Pyfer but in that case play his KO prop not his ML.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Gutierrez is +162??? Am i missing something? Why is he the dog here? I thought I was reading this line wrong and it was flipped (w/ Guttierez being -188 fave).
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I was surprised at first, but if you take a look at Chris' strength of schedule, particularly the guys he beat on his streak, it's pretty damn bad. Of the guys he beat only Danaa remains in the UFC, and barely at that.

Montel also fared much better against their only common opponent in Colares as well, and he's only tasted defeat against a certain type of fighter, a relentless wrestler. He's going to have more fire power and wrestling to back up his attack against Chris.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Gutierrez is +162??? Am i missing something? Why is he the dog here? I thought I was reading this line wrong and it was flipped (w/ Guttierez being -188 fave).

Cutelaba -138 is also weird. I dont know why Cutelaba line is so close. Lins is the EXACT type of LHW comp that Ion looks like a -600 favorite against and steamrolls. Then some get false hope into thinking hes a potential ranked level LHW. Hes kind of like Terence McKinney.
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Montel is a beast and Guttierez seems to have been a bit overrated. I'm very high on Montel and thinks he takes this fairly comfortably. Standup is close, but Montel should have a huge advantage on the ground. I think the odds are accurate.

Cutelaba looks good when he wins and horrible when he loses. If he doesn't get Lins to the ground and finish him in the first, he is usually done. On the feet Cutelaba is not good, he is all power and no technique and Lins has pretty good takedown defence, I can see it holding up. Look at the standup for Cutelaba vs Boser, he drops him but before that he looks awkward and was losing.
I like Lins to stuff takedowns then win on the feet.
 
I feel like Gutiérrez/Jackson is a coin flip.
It's a tough fight to call.

Who you got?
 
Montel Jackson...out. Injured.
 
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