UFC Vegas 80: Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green, October 7

[mkess101]

I don't do prizepicks but isn't Aldrich over fantasy points set at like 85? U don't like the under in that because even in a dec win for her I don't see her getting 85 points

It's at 68.5. I did take the under, but just in one small lineup. She could win the fight and still be under this #. Or she could lose, as MDLR flipped to being the favorite now. Normally you don't ever get props on the dog as they only list the favorites. But this is a case where JJ opened as the fave and they put up the lines, then the $ came in on MDLR.

 

[mkess101]

dawson under fantasy is the first thing that jumped out to me funny enough, i kind of hesitated because green gives his back and i think dawson will have him in compromised position. but you're right that it's still value regardless because it should cash as long as it goes past 5 mins so i guess i'll have to lock it in.

If I lose this one, I'm probably taking a break from PP. Dawson has never finished anyone in the first round (in the UFC). And yeah if it gets out of round 1 it will be very tough for him to cover (not impossible, but REALLY tough). The line I've seen on NOT Dawson rd 1 is -350. Let's say we adjust that a little for the weird scenarios that he hits like 8 takedowns and has a lot of sub attempts and covers even if it goes late, I'd say we're still looking at something like getting what should be a -275 to -300 line at even odds.

Yeah, it CAN lose. But it shouldn't.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

If I lose this one, I'm probably taking a break from PP. Dawson has never finished anyone in the first round (in the UFC). And yeah if it gets out of round 1 it will be very tough for him to cover (not impossible, but REALLY tough). The line I've seen on NOT Dawson rd 1 is -350. Let's say we adjust that a little for the weird scenarios that he hits like 8 takedowns and has a lot of sub attempts and covers even if it goes late, I'd say we're still looking at something like getting what should be a -275 to -300 line at even odds.

Yeah, it CAN lose. But it shouldn't.

completely agree, and again i'm on the under aldrich fantasy as well for the same reason. nice to see we're on the same stuff this week.

 

[PuertoRican]

Alexander Hernandez -130 is the current line.

I guess the sharps waited as long as they could and took all of the plus money on Hernandez. I'm still analyzing the fight, but I like Fight Starts R3 (MGM) and O2.5 rounds -110 (Circa).

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Alexander Hernandez -130 is the current line.

I guess the sharps waited as long as they could and took all of the plus money on Hernandez. I'm still analyzing the fight, but I like Fight Starts R3 (MGM) and O2.5 rounds -110 (Circa).

Did not see that flip coming at all... maybe not everything is good in the Algeo camp.

 

[sonhow]

Alexander Hernandez crumbles vs anyone who is decent, has cardio or who can take a shot. Algeo fits all. Alex did have all wrestling performance vs Oam years ago and he survied vs Miller but he probably knew Miller cant keep super pace anymore. So he didnt shut down mentally.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

it could be a hit or miss. im just picking all the younger guys, same as pyfer. Thanks for the breakdown, tho i think Green is terrible off his back, and Grant dominated Madson who is higher level wrestler. I honestly would not be surprised if Grant just slides on his back and taps him from behind or even repeats what Islam did.

I agree. Bobby has looked quite bad in his recents fights... i wouldn't go so far to call him washed, but he is certainly on a steep decline.
Looking at his most recent fights Drew, Jared, Tony. All of these fights was for the most part contested on the feet, which is his strongest game. This isn't science or anything, but I believe that once a fighter starts to decline, they decline faster in their weak areas than in their strong areas. If we can see notable decline in his standup I believe his ground game has suffered even worse.

On the other hand you have Dawson, who looked like an absolute beast against much tougher opposition in his last fight.

I was initially looking to get fancy with the Submission prop or Dawson + U2.5 rounds for + money, but I went with the safer bet.
However, my prediction is that Dawson submits Green under 2.5 rounds.
I took 1.5U on Dawson ITD... I don't love the odds here, but with 5 rounds to work I think he gets it done one way or another.

 

[mkess101]

I agree. Bobby has looked quite bad in his recents fights... i wouldn't go so far to call him washed, but he is certainly on a steep decline.
Looking at his most recent fights Drew, Jared, Tony. All of these fights was for the most part contested on the feet, which is his strongest game. This isn't science or anything, but I believe that once a fighter starts to decline, they decline faster in their weak areas than in their strong areas. If we can see notable decline in his standup I believe his ground game has suffered even worse.

On the other hand you have Dawson, who looked like an absolute beast against much tougher opposition in his last fight.

I was initially looking to get fancy with the Submission prop or Dawson + U2.5 rounds for + money, but I went with the safer bet.
However, my prediction is that Dawson submits Green under 2.5 rounds.
I took 1.5U on Dawson ITD... I don't love the odds here, but with 5 rounds to work I think he gets it done one way or another.

To be fair to Green-- Tony is washed but still game. He's always been willing to eat one to land one. Bobby was winning pretty much the whole fight. He was beating Drew to the punch too until Dober landed the bomb but Drew does that to a lot of guys. I do think that one could be a case where Bobby's reflexes have slowed just a little and with that style he has of just dodging punches he played with fire and got burned.
He also looked to be about to finish Gordon until they ruled it an accidental headbutt, to be fair I can't remember how that fight was going prior to that.

I think Dawson wins, probably convincingly. Just don't see a quick finish though. He's more methodical, hasn't had any quick finishes in the UFC even against way worse competition than the current version of Green.

Of course there's always the chance that Green really has declined that much and Dawson has peaked and he runs through him quickly and easily. In which case I crash and burn on PP. Just need Bobby not to fold early LOL.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

I agree. Bobby has looked quite bad in his recents fights... i wouldn't go so far to call him washed, but he is certainly on a steep decline.
Looking at his most recent fights Drew, Jared, Tony. All of these fights was for the most part contested on the feet, which is his strongest game. This isn't science or anything, but I believe that once a fighter starts to decline, they decline faster in their weak areas than in their strong areas. If we can see notable decline in his standup I believe his ground game has suffered even worse.

On the other hand you have Dawson, who looked like an absolute beast against much tougher opposition in his last fight.

I was initially looking to get fancy with the Submission prop or Dawson + U2.5 rounds for + money, but I went with the safer bet.
However, my prediction is that Dawson submits Green under 2.5 rounds.
I took 1.5U on Dawson ITD... I don't love the odds here, but with 5 rounds to work I think he gets it done one way or another.

Old fighters tap way quicker too. Once their in the submission and gassed can't breathe theirmore likely to tap, they don't have the testosterone and aggression to fight out of it like they may have had when their younger. You see guys who rarely get tapped when their in their prime get tapped easily as they get older. Examples: Ferg vs Green. Means vs Morono. Even Shevchenko vs Grasso 1.

 

[mkess101]

Old fighters tap way quicker too. Once their in the submission and gassed can't breathe theirmore likely to tap, they don't have the testosterone and aggression to fight out of it like they may have had when their younger. You see guys who rarely get tapped when their in their prime get tapped easily as they get older. Examples: Ferg vs Green. Means vs Morono. Even Shevchenko vs Grasso 1.

Tony vs Green? Not only did Tony not tap quickly, he didn't tap at all. I had Green by decision and was praying Tony could hold on a few more seconds but he went out. He fought it to the bitter end.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Tony vs Green? Not only did Tony not tap quickly, he didn't tap at all. I had Green by decision and was praying Tony could hold on a few more seconds but he went out. He fought it to the bitter end.

haha oh ya your right. I was trying to use examples of fighters who are fighting on this card.

I duno maybe I'm wrong its something I've noticed though. I notice this from my own training too, especially with chokes, when your older and can't breathe you're will to fight out of uncomfortable situations like that isn't the same as when you're younger.

 

[mkess101]

haha oh ya your right. I was trying to use examples of fighters who are fighting on this card.

I duno maybe I'm wrong its something I've noticed though. I notice this from my own training too, especially with chokes, when your older and can't breathe you're will to fight out of uncomfortable situations like that isn't the same as when you're younger.

Could be something to it. Likely varies from fighter to fighter.

Bobby...IDK. He definitely seemed to concede to Islam somewhat quickly. I don't feel like Dawson has quite that type of ability to apply pressure and break down a guard like Islam. I'm hoping at least early in the fight if Bobby is taken down, he closes guard and doesn't try to stupidly scramble and give his back easily.

I don't care if Dawson eventually finishes him, I just can't have it be early in the fight.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Could be something to it. Likely varies from fighter to fighter.

Bobby...IDK. He definitely seemed to concede to Islam somewhat quickly. I don't feel like Dawson has quite that type of ability to apply pressure and break down a guard like Islam. I'm hoping at least early in the fight if Bobby is taken down, he closes guard and doesn't try to stupidly scramble and give his back easily.

I don't care if Dawson eventually finishes him, I just can't have it be early in the fight.

Whats considered early rd 1 or 2?

 

[mkess101]

Whats considered early rd 1 or 2?

Rd 1 I lose. Rd 2...depends on how many points Dawson would score before he finished. I would say a Dawson finish in rd 2 it's more likely I win, but not a lock. If it makes rd 3, it would be really tough for me to lose. Still possible if Dawson is hitting a crazy amount of TD's or something but very unlikely. If it goes past 2 rounds I will feel VERY good about my bet.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Rd 1 I lose. Rd 2...depends on how many points Dawson would score before he finished. I would say a Dawson finish in rd 2 it's more likely I win, but not a lock. If it makes rd 3, it would be really tough for me to lose. Still possible if Dawson is hitting a crazy amount of TD's or something but very unlikely. If it goes past 2 rounds I will feel VERY good about my bet.

I strongly believe in hedging and you are saying it's gonna be a big payout if it hits I don't know if you hedge but why not bet the under 2.5 rds or Dawson rd 1 or something along those lines?

 

[mkess101]

I strongly believe in hedging and you are saying it's gonna be a big payout if it hits I don't know if you hedge but why not bet the under 2.5 rds or Dawson rd 1 or something along those lines?

I have a couple teams with under 3.5 rounds as a pseudo hedge.

 

[PuertoRican]

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I'll be Downtown at The D with a friend to watch the fights tomorrow. Feel free to join us if you want.

The first fight starts at 1pm.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Unlikely to see the cards, but I see a couple draw scenarios in Lins/Cutelaba

Cutelaba 10-8 R1
Lins 10-9 R2
Lins 10-9 R3

_______________

Cutelaba 10-9 R1
Cutelaba 10-9 R2
Lins 10-8 R3

 

[PuertoRican]

Unlikely to see the cards, but I see a couple draw scenarios in Lins/Cutelaba

Cutelaba 10-8 R1
Lins 10-9 R2
Lins 10-9 R3

_______________

Cutelaba 10-9 R1
Cutelaba 10-9 R2
Lins 10-8 R3

I've been eyeing the O1.5 rounds at +145 for awhile, but I'm still uncertain. Lins/Cutelabia is the only fight I'm not sure how to bet yet.

DRAW is +8000 on Circa, as are most DRAW props on this card.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I've been eyeing the O1.5 rounds at +145 for awhile, but I'm still uncertain. Lins/Cutelabia is the only fight I'm not sure how to bet yet.

DRAW is +8000 on Circa, as are most DRAW props on this card.

Solid price on draw. Best I can get is +6600. I'm unsure about 1.5 either way, but I can't hate on + odds. I have:

Lins +3.5 +100
Lins R3SC -190
Draw +6600