UFC Vegas 80: Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green, October 7

Willing to take Pyfer all the way down to -1000 so have/ will be blitzkrieging his moneyline.
 
KnockoutArtist said:
Willing to take Pyfer all the way down to -1000 so have/ will be blitzkrieging his moneyline.
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He probably wins, but this is his toughest matchup in the UFC so far. Personally I think he is to expensive already at these odds... -1000 is just ridiculous to bet him at.
 
KnockoutArtist said:
Willing to take Pyfer all the way down to -1000 so have/ will be blitzkrieging his moneyline.
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Can I ask why you think Pyfer has near 0% chance to lose? Like you really think that there is no shot in hell, that Alhassan can land a ko punch?

What has Pyfers chin shown that makes you so confident?
 
Mackronus said:
Does Ricky Glenn stand a chance here?
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He got caught last time out...his previous fight went to a draw with the guy who's the -460 favorite in the ME on this card. Glenn was getting his ass kicked first half of that fight but survived and poured it on late, dominating rd 3. Obviously this is a dude that will fight for your $ and has no quit in him.

Not saying I think he wins but this line is pretty damn wide given Dober's mileage (almost 40 pro fights cutting to 155) and the fact he was KO'd last time out just like Glenn was.
 
BigSteve said:
A freak injury alone is worth at least 5% of the outcome. We already seen it in the Dustin fight contender.
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Freak injuries don't happen 1 in 20 times lol.

They happen closer to 1 in 100 times, and the chance of it being your fighter make it 1 in 200.

LordHellraiser said:
Can I ask why you think Pyfer has near 0% chance to lose? Like you really think that there is no shot in hell, that Alhassan can land a ko punch?

What has Pyfers chin shown that makes you so confident?
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I think he wins 90 times out of 100 (-1000) against a one dimensional 38 year old who has 1 round of cardio.
 
KnockoutArtist said:
Freak injuries don't happen 1 in 20 times lol.

They happen closer to 1 in 100 times, and the chance of it being your fighter make it 1 in 200.
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Just out of memory from the last 3 events you had Rafael Fiziev and Jack Jenkins who got freak injuries... both look like they would win.

If you want to add some other freak "things"
Cody Brundage def. Jacob Malkoun via DQ (Should have lost)
Edgar Chairez NC Daniel Lacerda (Should have won... edit to Could have won)
Rose Namajunas broken finger (probably lose anyways but still).

This was just the last 3 events.
 
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Jasper_RB81 said:
Just out of memory from the last 3 events you had Rafael Fiziev and Jack Jenkins who got freak injuries... both look like they would win.

If you want to add some other freak "things"
Cody Brundage def. Jacob Malkoun via DQ (Should have lost)
Edgar Chairez NC Daniel Lacerda (Should have won)
Rose Namajunas broken finger (probably lose anyways but still).

This was just the last 3 events.
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Confirmation bias (you remember all the times anomalous things happen, and disregard all the typical outcomes) + recency bias (has been an increase on the mean over a small sample size recently).

Pyfer wins 90% of the time.
 
KnockoutArtist said:
Confirmation bias (you remember all the times anomalous things happen, and disregard all the typical outcomes) + recency bias (has been an increase on the mean over a small sample size recently).

Pyfer wins 90% of the time.
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No recency bias and no confirmation bias, I just listed what happened in the last 3 events... That's all.

You are probably safe to bet Pyfer, he should win. For me though, I don't see any value at current odds.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Just out of memory from the last 3 events you had Rafael Fiziev and Jack Jenkins who got freak injuries... both look like they would win.

If you want to add some other freak "things"
Cody Brundage def. Jacob Malkoun via DQ (Should have lost)
Edgar Chairez NC Daniel Lacerda (Should have won)
Rose Namajunas broken finger (probably lose anyways but still).

This was just the last 3 events.
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Not sure how you say Chairez should have won besides the fact he was the favorite. He got taken down with ease and was gassing his arm out with a guillotine that wasn’t there.
 
StewDogg11 said:
Not sure how you say Chairez should have won besides the fact he was the favorite. He got taken down with ease and was gassing his arm out with a guillotine that wasn’t there.
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Whatever... I'll edit the post.
 
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