UFC Vegas 80: Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green, October 7

[Jasper_RB81]

Just stating facts chief. Would you really be comfortable having Chairez as a -300 favorite the way the fight was going?

Probably not -300, but I felt like he was clearly on his way to win the fight... but we can talk about that fight in the FN 81 thread instead.

 

[mkess101]

Freak injuries don't happen 1 in 20 times lol.

They happen closer to 1 in 100 times, and the chance of it being your fighter make it 1 in 200.



I think he wins 90 times out of 100 (-1000) against a one dimensional 38 year old who has 1 round of cardio.

Even if you think he wins 90% of the time, betting him at -900 or -1000 wouldn't make sense from a value standpoint. Current odds sure, if that's your read then you have some perceived value with this line and a bet makes sense.

I try to factor at least a little the psychological aspect too. Maybe for you it's not relevant and you're stone cold regardless of outcome. I know myself though. Betting massive favorites does little for me when they win (which yes is most of the time) but is a big downer when they lose. Makes me second guess myself, etc. I've learned to pretty much ignore huge favorites ML's over the years. I also feel if they're THAT much better and it's THAT obvious, predicting HOW they win **should** be easier than with most fights. So smaller action on a prop is a way to get exposure to the fight without a huge investment and sweat on a super wide ML.

But I also get that everyone has their own style. GL, I do think Pyfer KO's him.

 

[Mackronus]

He got caught last time out...his previous fight went to a draw with the guy who's the -460 favorite in the ME on this card. Glenn was getting his ass kicked first half of that fight but survived and poured it on late, dominating rd 3. Obviously this is a dude that will fight for your $ and has no quit in him.

Not saying I think he wins but this line is pretty damn wide given Dober's mileage (almost 40 pro fights cutting to 155) and the fact he was KO'd last time out just like Glenn was.

Interesting, thank you.

 

[Stat_Collector]

going for the obvious ones

Pyfer ko
Grant sub
Aldrich dec
Algeo decision

 

[mkess101]

going for the obvious ones

Pyfer ko
Grant sub
Aldrich dec
Algeo decision

Will be impressive if Dawson subs Green. He can but Bobby hasn't been subbed since 2009 and has since gotten his black belt in BJJ and improved his grappling a ton. He's not Dawson level with his grappling (and he's getting up there in age) but Bobby is still pretty sound.

I have a lot on Dawson's under for his fantasy score on Prizepicks. That's my only action. Basically as long as Green doesn't get finished in rd 1, my play should cash. Unless Dawson hits like 10 takedowns or something crazy to rack up points.

Dawson may get him at some point. If he does, I just hope it's not rd 1.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Will be impressive if Dawson subs Green. He can but Bobby hasn't been subbed since 2009 and has since gotten his black belt in BJJ and improved his grappling a ton. He's not Dawson level with his grappling (and he's getting up there in age) but Bobby is still pretty sound.

I have a lot on Dawson's under for his fantasy score on Prizepicks. That's my only action. Basically as long as Green doesn't get finished in rd 1, my play should cash. Unless Dawson hits like 10 takedowns or something crazy to rack up points.

Dawson may get him at some point. If he does, I just hope it's not rd 1.

he's only had one sub attack attempt since Dan Louzon. Thiago moises in a 3 rounder.

Grant has 25 mins to work for my prop bet. hit or miss, but main events always give me extra leverage.

 

[mkess101]

he's only had one sub attack attempt since Dan Louzon. Thiago moises in a 3 rounder.

Grant has 25 mins to work for my prop bet. hit or miss, but main events always give me extra leverage.

True. Gotta hope Grant doesn't fade like rd 3 vs Glenn. Maybe that was an outlier, can't remember him hitting a wall like that any other time. But man he looked DEAD after 2 rounds that night.

Edit: ufc Stats say Lando and Trinaldo both tried subs vs Bobby too. I admittedly dont remember those fights or the context. But avoiding positions where you can even have a sub attempted vs you is a big part of grappling too. Islam put Bobby in a bad spot real quick. Ended it with strikes but was still the grappling that led to the end. Is Dawson close to that level? I lean not, but he could be closer than I think.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

going for the obvious ones

Pyfer ko
Grant sub
Aldrich dec
Algeo decision

how is aldrich an obvious spot? she sucks. lines already flipped massively from fav to dog. was big on her last fight and was really disappointed with her performance vs that can

 

[Stat_Collector]

True. Gotta hope Grant doesn't fade like rd 3 vs Glenn. Maybe that was an outlier, can't remember him hitting a wall like that any other time. But man he looked DEAD after 2 rounds that night.

Edit: ufc Stats say Lando and Trinaldo both tried subs vs Bobby too. I admittedly dont remember those fights or the context. But avoiding positions where you can even have a sub attempted vs you is a big part of grappling too. Islam put Bobby in a bad spot real quick. Ended it with strikes but was still the grappling that led to the end. Is Dawson close to that level? I lean not, but he could be closer than I think.

Lando had him in a standing guillotine, cant find the Trinaldo fight on fight pass. And Thiago had him in a slight tight kneebar.

He did get subbed in his last bjj match. Shane Shapiro | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

tbf bjj and mma are different, but he got subbed 1 min into rnd 1 (1:05)

Based on what i've seen , his bjj looks average to me. He's a lot closer to a purple belt than a legit black by mma standards.

Most of his scrambles and such is due to his wrestling base. We saw how fast Islam dispatched him with gnp.

Grant isn't Islam, but his bjj is on par or close(not his wrestling.)

 

[Stat_Collector]

how is aldrich an obvious spot? she sucks. lines already flipped massively from fav to dog. was big on her last fight and was really disappointed with her performance vs that can

style matchup. Her bad matchups are against strikers

She does well against grapplers who cant strike like Montana. she beat Gillian who is closer to Montana in style.

8-4 vs 5-4 in the ufc, im going with the more successful ufc fighter. But i acknowledge Montana has value as she matched Vivian in ss and drew with Bueno Silva. But more that had to do with Silva having shit tdd.

Aldrich has pretty good tdd , she got standup guillotine by Erin so it wasn't like she got grapple fked.

Not too strong a lean here. But i know her most likely win prop is dec, so i can play for 155+ hit or miss.

Id sprinkle half unit betting size. wmma is never consistent for me.

 

[mkess101]

Lando had him in a standing guillotine, cant find the Trinaldo fight on fight pass. And Thiago had him in a slight tight kneebar.

He did get subbed in his last bjj match. Shane Shapiro | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

tbf bjj and mma are different, but he got subbed 1 min into rnd 1 (1:05)

Based on what i've seen , his bjj looks average to me. He's a lot closer to a purple belt than a legit black by mma standards.

Most of his scrambles and such is due to his wrestling base. We saw how fast Islam dispatched him with gnp.

Grant isn't Islam, but his bjj is on par or close(not his wrestling.)

Yeah will be interesting to see how long Bobby can keep Grant off him and create that space to land strikes. Grant has very good back takes, Bobby looking to scramble his way out of spots could lead to those opportunities too.

I think I'd disagree about Grant's ability on the mat compared to Islam. It's hard in MMA to separate BJJ/wrestling/all other aspects of grappling. But from a holistic MMA grappling standpoint, seeing Islam dispatch of Oliveira so easily makes me think he's on a completely different level than Grant.

 

[mkess101]

style matchup. Her bad matchups are against strikers

She does well against grapplers who cant strike like Montana. she beat Gillian who is closer to Montana in style.

8-4 vs 5-4 in the ufc, im going with the more successful ufc fighter. But i acknowledge Montana has value as she matched Vivian in ss and drew with Bueno Silva. But more that had to do with Silva having shit tdd.

Aldrich has pretty good tdd , she got standup guillotine by Erin so it wasn't like she got grapple fked.

Not too strong a lean here. But i know her most likely win prop is dec, so i can play for 155+ hit or miss.

Id sprinkle half unit betting size. wmma is never consistent for me.

Robertson is very good when on the mat but her TD's suck pretty bad. MDLR is kinda the opposite. She's taken almost all of her UFC opponents down, but kinda sucks keeping them there or doing damage/advancing position.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah will be interesting to see how long Bobby can keep Grant off him and create that space to land strikes. Grant has very good back takes, Bobby looking to scramble his way out of spots could lead to those opportunities too.

I think I'd disagree about Grant's ability on the mat compared to Islam. It's hard in MMA to separate BJJ/wrestling/all other aspects of grappling. But from a holistic MMA grappling standpoint, seeing Islam dispatch of Oliveira so easily makes me think he's on a completely different level than Grant.

Islam wrestling is worlds apart, but bjj , in regards to passing,sub offense, back takes, is on par, but Im not saying in no realm is his overall grappling close.

Remember too that Olly got kd before the sub, i think islam cant sub him any other way.

JJ getup game is sharp too. I dont really mind her being taken down, i know she can pop back up easily. She has a judo background with steady center of gravity, im relying on that we'll see.

 

[mkess101]

Islam wrestling is worlds apart, but bjj , in regards to passing,sub offense, back takes, is on par, but Im not saying in no realm is his overall grappling close.

Remember too that Olly got kd before the sub, i think islam cant sub him any other way.

JJ getup game is sharp too. I dont really mind her being taken down, i know she can pop back up easily. She has a judo background with steady center of gravity, im relying on that we'll see.

Charles did get knocked down, but iirc he got full guard right away and didn't seem really rocked or hurt badly. Islam just cut through the guard, passed, and locked in that choke like it was nothing. Which makes what Volk did all the more impressive when on his back vs Islam. I don't see Dawson being able to do that to Charles under the same circumstances at all.

JJ's get up game is pretty good yeah. And her gas tank seems solid from what I remember. MDLR is good with mat returns, could be close rounds with multiple TD's by MDLR and a bit of control/gnp but with JJ landing the better strikes standing.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Charles did get knocked down, but iirc he got full guard right away and didn't seem really rocked or hurt badly. Islam just cut through the guard, passed, and locked in that choke like it was nothing. Which makes what Volk did all the more impressive when on his back vs Islam. I don't see Dawson being able to do that to Charles under the same circumstances at all.

JJ's get up game is pretty good yeah. And her gas tank seems solid from what I remember. MDLR is good with mat returns, could be close rounds with multiple TD's by MDLR and a bit of control/gnp but with JJ landing the better strikes standing.

is there anything specifically you see in green that makes him good at escaping subs and body triangles?

 

[mkess101]

is there anything specifically you see in green that makes him good at escaping subs and body triangles?

I don't think he's getting Grant off him if Grant does lock in a body triangle. I think Bobby is pretty saavy at not allowing opponents to advance to those spots. His hips are pretty good for a guy who didn't come from a bjj background. Seems to have found a solid feel for realizing when an opponent is trying to manipulate his weight and times it pretty well to use it to scramble away. That said, for sure I agree that he's had a lot more striking battles over the years than he has fights filled with grappling. And for sure it could be argued that Grant is the second best overall grappler he's faced.

Bobby's TDD has been good over the years too. One of the main reasons is that his striking compliments his TDD with the style he has of keeping his hands low and relying purely on head movement to avoid strikes. His reflexes have been good enough over the years to make it work, but as he ages it's a harder style to employ vs strikers with power (a al Dober). But it does aid in him stuffing traditional TD's because he doesn't need to drop his hands to sprawl, they're already down there. Islam caught a Green kick and used it to push Bobby back against the cage. They clinched up, and Islam timed a nice level change to get the double leg and in on Bobby's hips. Dawson is capable of the same, Bobby needs to keep it in the center of the cage and not allow himself to be backed up against the cage.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think he's getting Grant off him if Grant does lock in a body triangle. I think Bobby is pretty saavy at not allowing opponents to advance to those spots. His hips are pretty good for a guy who didn't come from a bjj background. Seems to have found a solid feel for realizing when an opponent is trying to manipulate his weight and times it pretty well to use it to scramble away. That said, for sure I agree that he's had a lot more striking battles over the years than he has fights filled with grappling. And for sure it could be argued that Grant is the second best overall grappler he's faced.

Bobby's TDD has been good over the years too. One of the main reasons is that his striking compliments his TDD with the style he has of keeping his hands low and relying purely on head movement to avoid strikes. His reflexes have been good enough over the years to make it work, but as he ages it's a harder style to employ vs strikers with power (a al Dober). But it does aid in him stuffing traditional TD's because he doesn't need to drop his hands to sprawl, they're already down there. Islam caught a Green kick and used it to push Bobby back against the cage. They clinched up, and Islam timed a nice level change to get the double leg and in on Bobby's hips. Dawson is capable of the same, Bobby needs to keep it in the center of the cage and not allow himself to be backed up against the cage.

it could be a hit or miss. im just picking all the younger guys, same as pyfer. Thanks for the breakdown, tho i think Green is terrible off his back, and Grant dominated Madson who is higher level wrestler. I honestly would not be surprised if Grant just slides on his back and taps him from behind or even repeats what Islam did.

 

[mkess101]

it could be a hit or miss. im just picking all the younger guys, same as pyfer. Thanks for the breakdown, tho i think Green is terrible off his back, and Grant dominated Madson who is higher level wrestler. I honestly would not be surprised if Grant just slides on his back and taps him from behind or even repeats what Islam did.

Oh I think Grant wins. Good chance he finishes. I'm just basically playing the under on his fantasy score as a way to get action on "not Dawson in rd 1" at evens. Which is crazy value imo. PP set his fantasy line high enough that with his style, it will be really hard for him to cover it unless he finishes Green in rd 1. Bobby probably isn't any worse off his back than Madson even though Madson is clearly a much higher level wrestler. (Someone like Madson isn't used to ever being on his back much). But really, if the fight were to go EXACTLY like Dawson/Madson, good by me. That would have Grant scoring 92 fantasy points, way below the 107.5 I need to stay under.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Will be impressive if Dawson subs Green. He can but Bobby hasn't been subbed since 2009 and has since gotten his black belt in BJJ and improved his grappling a ton. He's not Dawson level with his grappling (and he's getting up there in age) but Bobby is still pretty sound.

I have a lot on Dawson's under for his fantasy score on Prizepicks. That's my only action. Basically as long as Green doesn't get finished in rd 1, my play should cash. Unless Dawson hits like 10 takedowns or something crazy to rack up points.

Dawson may get him at some point. If he does, I just hope it's not rd 1.

I don't do prizepicks but isn't Aldrich over fantasy points set at like 85? U don't like the under in that because even in a dec win for her I don't see her getting 85 points

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Oh I think Grant wins. Good chance he finishes. I'm just basically playing the under on his fantasy score as a way to get action on "not Dawson in rd 1" at evens. Which is crazy value imo. PP set his fantasy line high enough that with his style, it will be really hard for him to cover it unless he finishes Green in rd 1. Bobby probably isn't any worse off his back than Madson even though Madson is clearly a much higher level wrestler. (Someone like Madson isn't used to ever being on his back much). But really, if the fight were to go EXACTLY like Dawson/Madson, good by me. That would have Grant scoring 92 fantasy points, way below the 107.5 I need to stay under.

dawson under fantasy is the first thing that jumped out to me funny enough, i kind of hesitated because green gives his back and i think dawson will have him in compromised position. but you're right that it's still value regardless because it should cash as long as it goes past 5 mins so i guess i'll have to lock it in.