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UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    This card is #shit. All of my most #elite plays I got at much better prices. Really the overs for Schnell, Barb, Lauzon, Moreno, and Alvey fights. Also on Schnell and Berger with you, they are #elite dogs for sure.

    Wineland decision at +1250 holds some of the highest value ive seen this year for sure. This is going to be a very, very close fight if Dodson can't find his chin. Also love my OSP sub +900 play.

    #prayforlivebet
     
  2. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    wineland dec +1253

    these prices.. my f'ing god.
     
  3. Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

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    Can't believe how much Fury's retarded members move the lines
     
  4. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Wow, I'm actually regretting not playing Moreno at +170. I think Moreno holds the advantage on the feet. Ortiz is the better grappler but he haven't seen that much of Moreno's grappling, his wrestling looked good vs Benoit and he's training with high level guys like Dillashaw in Colorado so he might surprise people. The 5 inch reach advantage is significant too. I think Moreno can box Ortiz up at range, I thought his striking looked really good vs Benoit.

    Biggest question is how does Moreno deal with the grappling and wrestling of Ortiz, we haven't seen much TDD from Moreno, he's not really tested and Ortiz is his biggest test.

    I think Ortiz is in his prime right now but he's always in close fights, 3 of his last 4 wins were split decisions. That doesn't inspire confidence when I'm looking to make a play.

    Big step up for Moreno though and the hometown advantage is relevant for Ortiz. I've considered playing both sides, I'll pick Ortiz but not with confidence, Moreno could surprise people.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    ^^^^So yeah, at that price okay I guess have to stab tiny. BUT, I actually really wanted Dodson -3.5 and there's no pt spreads other than the main and co-main!

    I really disagree with @Joseph Budden (with all due respect to his #elite status) in that this fight should be REALLY close if Dodson doesn't KO Eddie. Eddie isn't a volume striker really and the speed difference is gonna be big. I think it will be clear who looks like the better fighter right away.

    That said, Wineland dec odds are just nuts, even in a fight where I think he's sort of overmatched. Given that Dodson has had times (vs Fun Size most notably) where he himself doesn't throw enough volume and that judges do weird things, I had to bet this.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Part of me feels like I fucked up piling money onto the o2.5 without putting some on Moreno dec when it was +3xx. I think lines are just about right where they are now (Ortiz -140), but Moreno dec should've been +200 max.
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    The speed difference should be substantial, but Dodson has never cut an angle in his life, comes straight forward, and is so low volume. Wineland has great defensive footwork, does a great job angling off from attacks and even creating angles on his own attacks.

    If he can time the straight forward speed of Dodson and angle off with counters, which I think is much more possible than Luca Fraudy and his subscribers are realizing, this is gonna be very close. I fucking LOVE Wineland dec +1250, jesus what a line.
     
  8. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Moreno dec is still +290..
     
  9. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Gamblou #GettingHis #GetYours
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah but thats why I said I wish I didn't pile on the over. I'm HUGE on the over
     
  11. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Damn, Dodson - Wineland has been quite a mindfuck for a beginner. Pretty much all the lines exept Dodson by KO have looked really tempting, but still it seems, that I've caught a bunch of medicore odds in comparison of the other people got and now all I can think of for the rest of the evening/night is wether Wineland gets finished. Too many eggs in one basket for a newbie on a weird fight like this.

    So far I got:
    Wineland 0.5 u 4.0 / 0.5 u dec 7.5
    Dodson dec 0.5 u 3.8
    Dodson - Wineland O2.5 0.5 u 2.67
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    I don't really have a strong lean on either side of the fight. I do think it goes the distance most of the time, but I think Moreno has a (small) chance to snatch a sub here. Thus, my NSC bet and flyer on ITD at crazy odds.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    FOTN....I got nothing.

    I like Ortiz/Moreno but +600 just not good enough, not even close. Was hoping for +1000.

    I'm doing .1u on Dandois/Davis at +1500 because maybe there's some good grappling exchanges and it's paying out the most. And I always bet something on this prop, even if a tiny bet.
     
  14. Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

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    OSP is his expert free pick? Gamblou is one of my biggest inspirations but I'm not sure about that.
     
  15. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    The lines are all strange. For instance:

    Iaquinta x KO +120
    U2.5 +123

    Lol
     
  16. Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

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    Gamblou said he has some great mangly mutts for this event, might buy his picks.
     
  17. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    I think Gamblou has earned enough respect for you to give him this chance
    #ShowRespect #Believe #GamblouIsGreat
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I cannot argue betting that line, and in fact I bet it too even though I think Eddie is gonna look like he's stuck in mud. But maybe I'm wrong and Dodson is too predictable even with his speed advantage. The thing is you just can't train for it. You can't make your training partners be faster. You can train for styles and have guys try to emulate the angles that guys use (to a degree at least) but you can't train for someone who's faster than anyone else you can bring in (unless Eddie is training with Hume and MM?) That's would be my concern backing Eddie. Guys think they are ready and then they get in the cage and it's just faster than they've ever seen. And unlike Lineker Eddie can't rely on a granite chin.

    But +1242 (that's what I got it at) for Wineland dec? Yeah, even with everything I said that's a bonkers line.
     
  19. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah agreed, can't argue those points. Can only hope I see something in the first round that makes me believe Eddie is getting more and more accustomed to it in the cage so I can win the bet and hit that livebet too <{silvanormal}>
     
  20. Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

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    Yeah good point. I think he's the only person in the world who watches tape at a desk while wearing a suit, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
     
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