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UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. t6p Brown Belt

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    Is that a mistake or are you saying Wineland has a 0% chance of winning a decision?
     
  2. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    100%, interested to see OSP's gameplan though, he's looked more tentative in his recent fights. OSP is fighting at home, he's lost 4 of his last 5, backs against the wall, does he play it safe in round 1 against a 1 round fighter? Wouldn't be totally shocked to see a 2nd round but a 3rd is highly unlikely. Although OSP has gone the distance in 3 of his last 4 bouts.

    I think OSP is going to take him down, he tries to TD all his opponents and I think he'll have a big edge on the ground, De Lima is just as likely to go for a guillotine than defend a TD (33% TDD). He was cranking full force on Krylov's neck when the choke wasn't even close, desperate attempts.

    De Lima can win by KO and thats it. I don't think OSP is chinny but De Lima obviously hits like a truck. The value is on OSP, he's the better all round fighter, he's in a must win situation and he's fighting a guy that is dangerous but very beatable. I am trying to hard to convince myself here.
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    TYVM for the kind words and I will address this one more time ITT and then I'm closing the conversation. As I told LemonZest ...

    I'm not encouraging anyone to go "tout" if that means leaving the community and not helping peers ITT

    I don't ask ANYONE to buy my plays nor do I charge for them ITT

    I give FREE advice to anyone who wants it. Yea, I sell some of my plays, but that is aimed at a niche market who want ALL my picks. That's MMA/MLB/NCAA BB/NHL/UFC/BELLATOR/NBA and NFL/NCAA FB when it's in season.

    Time is money and as much as I would love to give FREE picks on ALL those sports, my research and knowledge are time consuming and mentally challenging to get things right. I don't know ANY other profession or hobby where someone spends 20 hours a week on something and then dedicates all that time to people they don't even know lol I'm not the volunteer fire department of sports betting.

    Most "touts" don't even enter this thread or give out their picks, I do.

    Also, it's capitalism. The market will dictate my success. If my plays suck I have ZERO customers.

    Finally, I will continue helping anyone ITT who deems my lil option of value to their plays.

    As such, I just wrote SEVEN very extensive BD's for FN 108 and didn't charge a penny.

    Sorry if anyone finds me abrasive or priggish as it's unintentional.

    With that said ..
    I now direct you to the new website www.GiveGoodfellaAllYourMoneyEvenIfThatMeansRobbingYourMother.com (Apologies if it doesn't load as it is in beta version)

    <{ohyeah}>
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    But De Lima isn't just aggressive, he's flat out reckless. Against a guy like this, you don't get to decide if you strategy is "play it safe" or "go for the kill". He decides for you. Meaning OSP is gonna either throw back or take De Lima down, he can't try to play matador against a guy who will so willingly put himself in harm's way in order to force exchanges. There's like 10 guys on planet earth with good enough footwork to do that (Dom Cruise-type guys). OSP isn't one of them.

    Do I think OSP wins? Yeah, gun to my head I think he does. But I think the likelihood it ends in rd 1 one way or another is greater than that.
     
  5. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    I have OSP in a parlay, but apart from that I agree. I think LB value could be had on OSP if De Lima takes the first round due to sheer aggression and doesn't finish.
     
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Lol typo .. ty I'll fix
     
  7. Jamah Green Belt

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    He is the most reckless fighter in the UFC by far,
    He is even more desperate to finish the fight in the first round than Entwistle, and that's not easy
     
  8. Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    Wow OSP DEC +1300 now. Hard on U1.5 but almost seems stab worthy. Could see him tentative on a losing streak and it going like the Feijao fight.

    Or De Lima gassing and OSP just frustratingly not finishing
     
  9. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    OSP is going to take him down or he's going to at least try. I know what De Lima is going to do but OSP is a wild card at this point, hasn't been looking like himself lately, far less aggressive, this could look like OSP vs Cavalcante.
     
  10. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    Where are you seeing that?
     
  11. Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    5dimes
     
  12. edole Brown Belt

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    So I just watched both of Schnell's fights on TUF 24 --- still not sure what everyone is talking about.

    He lost position multiple times against Rizzo who was very wreckless and tense in there, and tapped to a side control/neck crank? from Tim Elliot....

    He LOCKED IN a triangle on Rizzo and was unable to get the tap in the first round...

    Doubling down on Sandoval, who I think has as good a chance at getting the sub in this fight as Schnell.

    Edit: a front naked choke win by Elliot
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    you think alvey is gonna ko leites? he's never been ko'd, fought absolute studs his whole career

    i still like the over here. just leites sub could prevent it
     
  14. conmemay Boxer-Puncher

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    mmagf is a good man and been posting great bds since day one. i have nothing but good things to say about him. He chose to sell his picks for extra earnings and people are willing to pay, good for him.
     
  15. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Don't do it my friend
     
  16. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    man, FOTN is so hard to pick here

    swanson lobov could f'ing get it if it goes long

    iaquinta-sanchez? hell yes it could

    wineland dodson? absolutely

    lauzon-ray? uh, yes, it's a joe lauzon fight <--- wtf it's only +250 on a 13 fight tough-to-pick card, haha... tempted to do NOT FOTN here

    perry ellenberger? yep

    ortiz-moreno scramblefest 2.0 (elliot-smolka) -- mmhmm...

    barberena-proctor is gonna be sloppy but it's prolly gonna be fun

    ok, i'm stopping here. point illustrated. didn't even talk about schnell-sandoval or a couple others.

    FOTN is a total crapshoot here.
     
  17. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Some very big line movement, OSP/Lima under 1.5 was -135 and is now -270. Ortiz/Moreno nsc props flipped sides and then some, Ortiz nsc went from +180 to -295. I was on the earlier odds and I will probably keep the plays as they are.
     
  18. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Me thinking about parlaying OSP + Holtzman

    [​IMG]
     
  19. edole Brown Belt

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    Sig bet? Bring it.
     
  20. po_thead Red Belt

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    I just laid $3 on Lauzon, Leites and Swanson all by sub...at just under 200 to 1. Ha. 3 for $594. RNC party!!!
     
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