UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

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Carlos Diego Ferreira flagged for 'potential' USADA violation, pulled from Abel Trujillo fight

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/5/1...-flagged-for-potential-usada-violation-pulled

"The UFC organization was notified today that the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) informed Carlos Diego Ferreira of a potential Anti-Doping Policy violation, stemming from a recent out-of-competition sample collection. In accordance with the UFC Anti-Doping Policy, Ferreira has received a provisional suspension, and has been removed from his scheduled bout against Abel Trujillo on May 29 in Las Vegas.

UFC will announce a replacement opponent for Trujillo shortly, while additional violation information will be provided at the appropriate time as the process moves forward."
 
Stephens +155
Story/Saff o2.5 (-260) but I'm not in love with the price.
Miranda -160, -210 is not TOO bad but any higher I'm just gonna skip it.
Larkin -120, -160 isn't too bad either but any higher on Larkin I'm just gonna play the o2.5
Burkman/Felder -160

I will play Koch at the right price in the 100s-190s
Will play McMann/Eye o2.5 for parlay fodder.
Sterling will be overpriced but he'll obv win.

I haven't played the main event. I might end up taking the dog but I may just watch as a fan. Sick match up. I'm actually flying out to Vegas to see this card. If any Sherdog Las Vegas correspondents are out there PLEASE PM me I'd like to know if any books are offering over/unders ahead of time.
 
Okay, I am on Almeida, BUT I have to play Cody DEC +865. Crazy DEC odds for a BW fight, regardless if you think it gets finished in R1 or whatever.
 
Favorites on the left: (guesses)

Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt
Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story
Vitor Miranda vs. Chris Camozzi
Lorenz Larkin vs. Jorge Masvidal
Paul Felder vs. Josh Burkman
Sara McMann vs. Jessica Eye
Abel Trujillo vs. TBA
Alberto Uda vs. Jake Collier
Erik Koch vs. Shane Campbell
Aljamain Sterling vs. Bryan Caraway
Adam Milstead vs. Chris De La Rocha


Who's uda? He'd be favored?

Disagree with one other one but rather let lines come out before I say...
 
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/4/1...keith-berrish-brazilian-middleweight-mma-news

The latest of these is a Brazilian middleweight, coming in to replace the injured (again) Keith Berish at UFC Vegas: Almeida vs. Garbrandt. Berish was set to face Jake Collier on the Fight Night undercard. According to MMAJunkie, Uda will step in on two months notice, which should be more than enough for a full camp. So...

Who is Alberto Uda?

The 31-year-old Brazilian comes to the UFC training out of Thai Gaspar, a Nova Uniao affiliate out of Blumenau, Santa Catarina, Brazil. It seems to be a gym mostly focused on training competitive muay thai fighters, and Uda himself is apparently just returning from a stint over in Thailand where he won a tournament title. In MMA, Uda stands undefeated with a 9-0 pro record and all but one of his wins coming by way of stoppage. Most recently he beat former UFC fighter Thiago Perpetuo, but he also has wins over regional standouts Thiago Rela, Junior Albini, and UFC vet Rick Monstro. All told, he's got a pretty exceptionally strong regional record, and the fact that he's winning most of his fights by stoppage is a great sign.

What you should expect:

Uda is a fighter of two parts and both of them are really very solid. He's an excellent clinch fighter, and he's a very good fighter off his back. He's also not bad at stuffing a takedown. He might get put on the mat by power wrestlers, but he'll probably make them work for it. At range, he's a functional, but clunky striker. He'll throw out a variety of kicks to keep distance, and can throw a straight 1-2, but his hands don't come back well defensively and he seems to get off balance pretty easily. It's just not a comfortable place for him. He absolutely does his best work inside, both with dirty boxing and the plum, he's great at framing for knees and at landing sharp punches when chest to chest. He's a very dangerous fighter to close down and try and grind.

Interestingly, he's not that dangerous a fighter from top control. He'll pepper away with short punches if you're willing to absolutely give him control, but he's not great at creating offense and staying on top. He's much more likely to lose position and return to the clinch. From his back, however, Uda is a crafty guard grappler, who does a great job stifling opponents movement while he sets up submissions. That may not fly long term in the UFC, where guard games tend to get torn apart, but it makes his clinch striking much tougher to work around.

What this means for his debut:

This will be an interesting challenge, as Collier is something of a jack of all trades. He's not a terrible striker, or wrestler or grappler or clinch fighter, but he's not amazing at any of those things too. And he's also very willing to go wherever his opponent wants in the fight. Collier is probably at his best when he can get into a scramble on the mat, as he has a good nose for finding strikes and submissions in transitions. However, like Uda, his range striking is there but not dependable, and his wrestling works but isn't beautiful. I might give Uda the edge, just because if he can punish Collier in the clinch he may be able to make Collier have to try and outpoint him from range. If this ends up being a crazy ground battle, it's anyone's fight.

 
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/2/1/10846436/ufc-signs-heavyweight-adam-milstead-pittsburgh-mma-news

FC has picked up Pittsburgh native Adam Milstead for a four fight contract. MMAFighting first reported the news, and while no debut date or opponent has been announced, Milstead is expected to fight this spring. So...

Who is Adam Milstead?

The 28-year-old "Prototype" is a product Mark Cherico's Martial Arts & Fitness Academy, former home came to Cody Garbrandt and a sometimes training partner of Stipe Miocic over at Strong Style MMA in Ohio. He's on his way to the UFC with a 7-1 pro record having gone undefeated since losing his debut in 2011. All of his wins come by stoppage, with five KO/TKOs and two submissions. On paper his level of opposition is unexciting, but fine. Mostly he's faced a combination of regional journeymen and other young, green fighters. It's HW, so anything other than straight can crushing is a good sign. Outside of MMA Milstead has a background as a wrestler and played football for Geneva College.

What you should expect:

Todd Duffee would be the easy point of comparison for a fighter like Milstead. Another big, cut, powerful heavyweight whose most remarkable talent is a willingness to sit in the pocket and throw fight ending punches. There are a few notable differences however. As a striker, Milstead is much more comfortable boxing inside than a fighter like Duffee (and a bit less comfortable out at range) and does a good job mixing his strike selection in the pocket to find openings in his opponent's defense. He's also shown the occasional willingness to do some grappling work on the mat, and even has an armbar to his name.

When he can get a well timed shot in open space he has a decent power double, but otherwise Milstead's wrestling isn't especially notable. He often gets stuffed on shot attempts and ends up working in the clinch instead. He's got a decent dirty boxing game and the power to make up for technique, but it does leave him somewhat limited as a fighter who is only really at his offensive best when he's right in front of you slinging leather. Defensively, Milstead has a few holes too. He moves his head well at range, but when he actually sits down on his punches he's a pretty static target and has gotten tagged a few times because of it. I expect he'll have early success in the UFC just on his physical tools. But, he'll need to really evolve his game (or show an incredible chin) to get into the top 10.

 
Okay, I am on Almeida, BUT I have to play Cody DEC +865. Crazy DEC odds for a BW fight, regardless if you think it gets finished in R1 or whatever.
Got a play on that as well
 
Stephens +155
Story/Saff o2.5 (-260) but I'm not in love with the price.
Miranda -160, -210 is not TOO bad but any higher I'm just gonna skip it.
Larkin -120, -160 isn't too bad either but any higher on Larkin I'm just gonna play the o2.5
Burkman/Felder -160

I will play Koch at the right price in the 100s-190s
Will play McMann/Eye o2.5 for parlay fodder.
Sterling will be overpriced but he'll obv win.

I haven't played the main event. I might end up taking the dog but I may just watch as a fan. Sick match up. I'm actually flying out to Vegas to see this card. If any Sherdog Las Vegas correspondents are out there PLEASE PM me I'd like to know if any books are offering over/unders ahead of time.

I live in Vegas. One of the best places for ufc bets is Palazzo, although last time I was there to place bets on a fight night card they did not have any lines for it
 
I have strong leans on Koch, Felder, AJ and Miranda. Going to watch tape before I commit tho.
 
Ok didn't know Proctor is out will avoid Koch as Campbell will give him a tougher fight.
 
Is the fight with Almeida & Garbrandt not 5 rounds? Or is it only 3 rounds?
 
Almeida/Garbrandt is 5 rounds
 
I have strong leans on Koch, Felder, AJ and Miranda. Going to watch tape before I commit tho.

man, strong leans? koch, really? i'm a felder fan, but he has lots of close fights... idk how confident i can be on h im here...

and sorry, who's AJ? on ufn 88? you mean like aljamain?
 
Just hoping Felder round 3 pays around +1500. Felder is likely to make Burkman work. KJ Noons threw about 4 punches in 10 mins, and Burkman was still dead tired in the third.

Also guessing Aljo's price will be juicy, and i'll be on Caraway. Hes sneakily good, and i'm not convinced Aljo's herky jerky fight style is gonna get the job done vs Caraway's very technical game
 
I live in Vegas. One of the best places for ufc bets is Palazzo, although last time I was there to place bets on a fight night card they did not have any lines for it

Would you be able to get the inside scoop on whether the odds will be released at any of these books in Vegas? I especially need the over/unders. I mean, the fight night is being held in Vegas so I'm assuming they'll have odds set for it right??
 
Last time I was there they didn't take parlays, couple years


Def best screen to watch

Don't know how or why eMerrill puts his name on the food

It's yuck
I live in Vegas. One of the best places for ufc bets is Palazzo, although last time I was there to place bets on a fight night card they did not have any lines for it
 
Just hoping Felder round 3 pays around +1500. Felder is likely to make Burkman work. KJ Noons threw about 4 punches in 10 mins, and Burkman was still dead tired in the third.

Also guessing Aljo's price will be juicy, and i'll be on Caraway. Hes sneakily good, and i'm not convinced Aljo's herky jerky fight style is gonna get the job done vs Caraway's very technical game

With you on Caraway and I think we'll get him at good odds. I think his line will climb too.
 
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