UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

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Anyone really like Burkman Felder over 2.5 -160? I feel this goes to a decision most the time.
 
masvidal vs larkin...... surely split decision prop sounding good off the bat ?

Both great fighters just depends who is more active with volume, masvidal has that potential and jab but larkin has solid consistent leg kicks, feels like it hits decision or overs hit at least. Feeling masvidal may get the nod here if he can mix it up better with take downs.

Saf and story could be similar accept story hunting for a ko, but we saw his lovely jab also against gunnar just depends if saf can get his leg kicks going also without getting his head taken off, also reckon same with overs or decision play, possibly saf due to storys 2 years off and 2 injuries + ring rust.

Like stephens, just reckon baraos faded quite a bit and those weight cuts and strain have finally taken its toll, no idea on the stephens ko prop or lines though.

Kotch has been with 2 injuries and also out past 2 years also, may have some ring rust but should be able to get the nod here
 
Rebel_LioN said:
How many real American wrestlers has Caraway faced though. /QUOTE]

He outgrappled Bedford who was a D1 wrestler compared to Sterlings D3. That said, Sterling has adapted his wrestling to MMA better.
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I think Sterling wins but don't particularly like his odds and think Caraway can have some success here. If it somehow gets to +350 I'll be on Caraway, doubt it gets that high though so I'll probably just not bet the fight, or bet Sterling by decision if it's + odds.

Burkman/Felder - Obvious striking advantage to Felder but if it reaches +250 I'll probably have a punt on Burkman. He should be the stronger guy in there and I expect a grappling heavy approach from him. Outside of Castillo, he's not particularly faced people wanting to grapple with him. There was Saggo in his debut who had success in taking him down, and I think Pearson and Cruickshank might have taken him down if memory serves. Felder does have a good sprawl though. Both are pretty durable, I kinda like not ITD/o2.5 here.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Anyone really like Burkman Felder over 2.5 -160? I feel this goes to a decision most the time.
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Felder will probably be looking to knock his head off the bat, so just depends if burkman can clinch, grind and force him against the cage to work his take downs here, I think he will have success here he has no choice either that or enjoy felders leg kicks and power punches so yeah like the overs here, any guy could get the nod if they do enough.

Would be tempted to hit a flyer on felder r3 ko but burkman decision line could be interesting during live betting also.
 
Ukram said:
Felder will probably be looking to knock his head off the bat, so just depends if burkman can clinch, grind and force him against the cage to work his take downs here, I think he will have success here he has no choice either that or enjoy felders leg kicks and power punches so yeah like the overs here, any guy could get the nod if they do enough.

Would be tempted to hit a flyer on felder r3 ko but burkman decision line could be interesting during live betting also.
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Im sure he will but Felder hasn't knocked anyones head off in his UFC run bar a low percentage spinning back fist landing flush on Castillo. Burkman has been knocked out once and that was by a guy whos fought at LHW and dropped Tito. Really like the over here.
 
I'd be hesitant on the over in that one. Burkman looks for finishes and he gasses out. Both of those are red flags for potential finishes.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Putting down 1.5u on Caraway at +300. This line cant possible get better than that can it?

Also doing 1.5u on Masvidal +140. I dont see that one going higher either.
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Yes they both could go higher.

Definitely against you on masvidal
 
EzFlyer said:
Yes they both could go higher.

Definitely against you on masvidal
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I really like what I heard from Masvidal a while ago on mmajunkie radio where he said how much he loves wrestling now and is working on it a lot. Wrestling is Larkins kryptonite in a way but the big question is obviously if Masvidal can implement his wrestling game.
Larkin is gonna have the size advantage for sure and I can see why you wanna play Larkin if you think his TDD holds up since hes the better striker. Personally I think Masvidal is gonna give Larkin enough trouble standing to be able to get the reactive TDs. Larkin has improved his footwork so he doesnt get stuck against the cage as much as before but the tendencies are still there so ill expect an intelligent fighter like Masvidal to get him in this spot several times kinda like he did vs Benson.

Also, even if this ends up on the feet for 15 i expect it to be close. Larkins lack of boxing makes him end up in close fights, many judges still under value leg kicks for example which Larkin focuses a lot on.

Sry for shitty writing. Hate typing on my phone.
 
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Agent Mulder said:
I really like what I heard from Masvidal a while ago on mmajunkie radio where he said how much he loves wrestling now and is working on it a lot. Wrestling is Larkins kryptonite in a way but the big question is obviously if Masvidal can implement his wrestling game.
Larkin is gonna have the size advantage for sure and I can see why you wanna play Larkin if you think his TDD holds up since hes the better striker. Personally I think Masvidal is gonna give Larkin enough trouble standing to be able to be able to get the reactive TDs. Larkin has improved his footwork so he doesnt get stuck against the cage as much as before but the tendencies are still there so ill expect an intelligent fighter like Masvidal to get him in this spot several times kinda like he did vs Benson.

Also, even if this ends up on the feet for 15 i expect it to be close. Larkins lack of boxing makes him end up in close fights, many judges still under value leg kicks for example which Larkin focuses a lot on.

Sry for shitty writing. Hate typing on my phone.
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Yeah I think this could be close. Very, very happy I got the o2.5 at -165, think its like -240 now. Masvidal +3.5 could be an intriguing line
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im sure he will but Felder hasn't knocked anyones head off in his UFC run bar a low percentage spinning back fist landing flush on Castillo. Burkman has been knocked out once and that was by a guy whos fought at LHW and dropped Tito. Really like the over here.
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Yeah do like the overs still, I think burkman is durable enough early on he just has to get his grinding style going really, burkman does slow down and more in r3 so slight worry, overs are a nice choice, decision could be more risky.

Going to be interesting to see what lotto parlay tickets we come up with lol
 
That sounds interesting from masvidal he has had success with take downs in the past and he tends to get the nod or win more easily when he does, may favour him a bit more then larkin now :)
 
I would be scared shitless touching o2.5 for Felder fight at -165. Burkman seems on the steady decline, and he gassed BAD last fight against Noons who literally was throwing 3 punches a round.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I would be scared shitless touching o2.5 for Felder fight at -165. Burkman seems on the steady decline, and he gassed BAD last fight against Noons who literally was throwing 3 punches a round.
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Agree 100%. I was on Burkman and scared shitless that he would get finished in the 3rd vs Noons.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Agree 100%. I was on Burkman and scared shitless that he would get finished in the 3rd vs Noons.
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Same here. And while I think the gassing could hypothetically improve with this being his 2nd weight cut to 155, maybe that had something to with it and he'll be more accustomed, I most certainly wouldn't bet on it at that price.

Should be noted Burkman is old, not only will Felder throw much more volume than KJ but he has great body kicks
 
Burkman cut 18 pounds in 24hrs im assuming he won't be so stupid again. I think you guys are overstating Felder's finishing ability.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Burkman cut 18 pounds in 24hrs im assuming he won't be so stupid again. I think you guys are overstating Felder's finishing ability.
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I would be on anyone decent to win in round 3 vs burkman after that last performance. Your call, I could def see the over hitting, just that price more than anything is what I don't like

Also should be noted Felder now trains here in NJ with Team Almeida who have Mark Henry as the striking coach. That dude is well known for making guys throw volume In sparring
 
Joseph Budden said:
I would be on anyone decent to win in round 3 vs burkman after that last performance. Your call, I could def see the over hitting, just that price more than anything is what I don't like

Also should be noted Felder now trains here in NJ with Team Almeida who have Mark Henry as the striking coach. That dude is well known for making guys throw volume In sparring
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Ok thats making me want to throw Felder in a parlay did not know that!
 
Rebel_LioN said:
My fav play of the current odds so far. I'm heavy $250 on him at his opener of +185. I expect the lines to tighten up and then I'll maybe think of a pseudo hedge. I think his size and power will be the deciding factor in this fight. Barao may come in with a cardio and slight speed advantage but that's about it. I think the biggest worry will be the weight cut I'll watch out for that.
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Hi Rebel. Can I have your picks? Thank you.
 
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