UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

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Do you guys think that Story can close the distance on Saffiedine? I think so but the lay off concerns me.
 
Tarec's chin terrifies me. The Korean guy had him badly hurt in r5, McDonald shut him down with a two punch combo and he is not known for his punch power. Ellenberger had him hurt bad twice including right at the end of r3 which a lot of people didn't seem to realise. However, Story is not known for his punch power he only has four KO wins and to be fair to Tarec, Ellenberger and the Korean guy are powerhouses and Rory is the only person to stop Tarec with strikes.

I don't normally go big on prop plays but it is very tempting for me to go big on Tarec decision at what will be + odds. Story has never been KO'd and Tarec only has one TKO win. Story has been out over 18 months and Tarec is the more technical striker. This is a close fight but I will definitely be laying a decent sized bet on Tarec decision.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Tarec's chin terrifies me. The Korean guy had him badly hurt in r5, McDonald shut him down with a two punch combo and he is not known for his punch power. Ellenberger had him hurt bad twice including right at the end of r3 which a lot of people didn't seem to realise. However, Story is not known for his punch power he only has four KO wins and to be fair to Tarec, Ellenberger and the Korean guy are powerhouses and Rory is the only person to stop Tarec with strikes.

I don't normally go big on prop plays but it is very tempting for me to go big on Tarec decision at what will be + odds. Story has never been KO'd and Tarec only has one TKO win. Story has been out over 18 months and Tarec is the more technical striker. This is a close fight but I will definitely be laying a decent sized bet on Tarec decision.
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Tarec's chin is definitely a concern. Doesnt take much to wobble him.. but his defense is pretty awesome . Great footwork, covers up very well, food at controlling distance

If it stays standing for 15 mins, it's very likely going to be a saff decision. His wrestling has also gotten REALLY good. It started back with strikeforce. I'm not even sure if story is the better Mma wrestler here.

But that chin...
 
Sham5916910 said:
Story is not known for his punch power
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Although true, worth keeping in mind he dropped Gunnar in his last fight too.

Agent Mulder said:
Do you guys think that Story can close the distance on Saffiedine? I think so but the lay off concerns me.
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I think he probably can. Struggling to remember a fight win or lose for Story where he's been forced to fight it entirely at range. He's good at getting into the clinch and working strikes against the cage. Got to imagine Tarec has been focused on avoiding this but yeah, I still think it'll happen at some point.

It's a tough fight to predict for me, despite it being obvious what the gameplan for both fighters will be; Tarec try to keep it at kickboxing range and use his sound technical striking to outpoint Story while avoiding eating a big shot and Story trying to clinch it up against the cage, brutalise Tarecs body with short hooks from inside and mix it up with some shots to the head. Tarec is pretty good in the clinch and I don't think Story can take him down or keep him down, but he can probably have his moments in getting him against the cage and landing short shots in there.

I think there's really only 3 outcomes for this fight; Tarec decision / Story decision / Story KO (less likely than the other 2 but more likely than any others). I expect the best option is to wait and bet the fight in play and see what success Story has in closing the distance in the first round. Normally I'd just bet the overs but the odds are (rightfully) rubbish. Given how close Story's fights can be against better competition (quite a few split decisions in his recent fights) I might look at the odds for either fighter by SD once they're released and perhaps a small punt on Story r3 which should be at good odds. He's not known for his power but he can hurt people, his style is more cumulative in damage and Tarec has a propensity for getting hurt late in fights.
 
i think tarec wins a clear decision personally but since i only like to play ML, i probably won't touch it at those odds.
 
Story one of those guys I hate to watch because referees love to let him stall out fights. He's a very good tactical guy when it comes down to draping over your back or in your guard landing knees to the thighs or whatever kinda like how Benson does (moreso now that he's @ mmalab). For that reason you see a lot of split decisions on Rick's record.

I'm also considering a decision play but I don't know who's gonna win this fight. Tarec I don't think has ever faced a southpaw in his MMA career unless someone can point one out. But Tarec is also a very comfortable switch stance fighter so I'm sure it shouldn't be a huge issue. He needs to really drill his footwork and movement to keep his back off the cage where story does his best work in dirty boxing. If he starts to land a few of his patented leg kicks, he should be able to wear out Story who plants his feet heavy when he throws. A couple of good timed kicks will slow anyone down.

Story has good power but he doesn't seem to finish a lot of guys I'm not sure why it doesn't translate into KO's. He goes to the body as good as anyone does and he goes low/high but he's very likely to go back to his stall tactics when the opportunity is there.

Man I'm predicting a split here. I wish the over wasn't so juiced. Neither prop has any value either. Tarec's ML is -135 while his prop is +150. I'll wait to see if anything shakes out because it can't get any worse than it is now

********

The over/under for Masvidal/Larkin is atrocious as well. While I likely see it going the distance too, no one should be playing that line at -255. No value in either guy by decision. I think all of these lines mentioned will probably get better by fight day.

Edit: Ayy @EzFlyer wit the blue tag
 
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Rebel_LioN said:
Story one of those guys I hate to watch because referees love to let him stall out fights. He's a very good tactical guy when it comes down to draping over your back or in your guard landing knees to the thighs or whatever kinda like how Benson does (moreso now that he's @ mmalab). For that reason you see a lot of split decisions on Rick's record.

I'm also considering a decision play but I don't know who's gonna win this fight. Tarec I don't think has ever faced a southpaw in his MMA career unless someone can point one out. But Tarec is also a very comfortable switch stance fighter so I'm sure it shouldn't be a huge issue. He needs to really drill his footwork and movement to keep his back off the cage where story does his best work in dirty boxing. If he starts to land a few of his patented leg kicks, he should be able to wear out Story who plants his feet heavy when he throws. A couple of good timed kicks will slow anyone down.

Story has good power but he doesn't seem to finish a lot of guys I'm not sure why it doesn't translate into KO's. He goes to the body as good as anyone does and he goes low/high but he's very likely to go back to his stall tactics when the opportunity is there.

Man I'm predicting a split here. I wish the over wasn't so juiced. Neither prop has any value either. Tarec's ML is -135 while his prop is +150. I'll wait to see if anything shakes out because it can't get any worse than it is now

********

The over/under for Masvidal/Larkin is atrocious as well. While I likely see it going the distance too, no one should be playing that line at -255. No value in either guy by decision. I think all of these lines mentioned will probably get better by fight day.

Edit: Ayy @EzFlyer wit the blue tag
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it's a tough fight to bet. maybe just the over and be done w/it.. or idk what.

story NSC? when that's out...
 
Was training for Erick Silva but then I got hurt, ring rust is physiological, I don't think there will be any hesitating, I get hit and it's on, I go out with different game plans for every fighter, watching footage on how Rory beat Saffiedine, I will be right in his face throwing punches back

 
thoughts on Story +3.5 when that line's available?
 
new lines on 5d:

mcmann -175
eye +135
(o2.5 -230)

trujillo -305
rinaldo +225
(o1.5 -150)

uda -150
collier +110
(o1.5 -160)

koch -125
campbell -115
(o1.5 -180)

milstead -245
de la rocha +175
(u1.5 -210)

------------

absolutely love campbell's line. maxing that.

think i like jessica eye, too... hrmmm

no idea who milstead or uda are.... wow @ uda being favored over collier in his debut...
 
EzFlyer said:
new lines on 5d:

mcmann -175
eye +135
(o2.5 -230)

trujillo -305
rinaldo +225
(o1.5 -150)

uda -150
collier +110
(o1.5 -160)

koch -125
campbell -115
(o1.5 -180)

milstead -245
de la rocha +175
(u1.5 -210)

------------

absolutely love campbell's line. maxing that.

think i like jessica eye, too... hrmmm

no idea who milstead or uda are.... wow @ uda being favored over collier in his debut...
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love the campbell line.... does eye have the ability to keep it standing for 4 minutes a round? if she gets held down any longer she will lose a decision.
 
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